Oil prices fell on Friday but still posted a weekly gain, as US oil and gas production was disrupted by a hurricane and the markets weighed whether president-elect Donald Trump would enforce tighter sanctions on some oil-producing countries.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 2.33 per cent lower at $73.87 a barrel at the market close. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, closed down by 2.74 per cent to $70.38 a barrel.
More than 22 per cent of crude oil production and 9 per cent of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico – which represents 15 per cent of US crude output – was shut down as a result of Hurricane Rafael, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Thursday. The storm is forecast to weaken as it moves slowly west across the Gulf of Mexico, gradually moving away from the oilfields, the US National Hurricane Centre said.
Mr Trump’s election victory has added new volatility to oil markets, as investors speculate about the potential for reduced global demand due to greater trade restrictions, as well as tighter crude supplies amid possible stricter sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
The new Trump administration brings with it “oil price tailwinds” through crude production supportive policies, weaker crude demand through higher tariffs and a stronger US dollar, Ehsan Khoman, head of research, commodities, ESG and emerging markets research at MUFG, said in a research note. “It was telling that Trump riffed on energy in his acceptance speech, declaring, 'Leave the oil to me, we have more liquid oil and gas than any country in the world,'” he added.
Brent has fallen by about 18 per cent since reaching $91 a barrel in April, as concerns about slowing growth in China overshadow fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Last Sunday, eight Opec+ member countries agreed to extend voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million bpd for a month until the end of December this year.
The members were scheduled to gradually increase oil production starting in December, with the goal of unwinding the cut over several months. But due to a one-month delay, the production increase has been postponed until January 2025.
Meanwhile, the remaining Opec+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd will remain in effect until the end of 2025, as per an agreement reached in June this year.
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in response to a cooling job market and continued progress towards the Fed's 2 per cent inflation target.
“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” the Fed said in a statement. “Since earlier in the year, labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low."
Lower interest rates stimulate economic growth, boosting crude demand. The Fed began its easing cycle with a 50 basis points cut in September on slowing inflation after keeping rates at a 22-year high for more than a year.
