Energy leaders on Monday expressed concerns over geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the potential impact on crude supply from the region. However, they added that the outcome of the US presidential election is unlikely to influence investment decisions in the region in the short term.
The Middle East is embroiled in geopolitical turmoil, with heightening tension between Israel and Iran, along with conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. So far, energy infrastructure has not been affected directly.
“The conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk to the world right now,” BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss said during a panel of energy industry heads at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (Adipec).
Geopolitical tension in the region is at the “top of the mind”, even as a long-term challenge, Mr Auchincloss added.
About a third of the world's oil is produced in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are among the top exporters in the region.
British oil company Shell’s chief executive also said he was concerned about the Middle East troubles in the short term.
“The Middle East conflict is what keeps me awake at night at the moment, more than anything else,” Wael Sawan said during the same panel discussion.
In the longer term, energy demand will depend on markets in the US and China – two of the world’s largest economies, Mr Sawan said. “In particular, the Chinese market, and … the impact it could have on the supply chain [and] the redrawing of the energy complex globally.”
US election
The US presidential election on Tuesday is expected to have significant consequences for national and global energy, as well as climate policies.
If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, he is widely expected to reverse some clean energy and climate policies, while loosening regulations on oil and gas.
“We always work with whoever wins an election very comfortably,” Mr Auchincloss said. “I suppose the big challenge the US faces right now is regulatory [and] permitting reform. I hope whoever wins the election can really start to tackle [that]."
Mr Sawan said it was difficult to predict the respective impact of a Mr Trump or Kamala Harris administration on the energy sector.
“It was under the previous Trump administration that you saw the largest growth in renewables, and under the current Biden administration, you had a great surge in oil and gas, so I think at the end of the day economics plays a critical role as well,” he said.
Shell will keep an eye on potential changes to the US Inflation Reduction Act, which contains billions of dollars in new spending and tax breaks that aim to boost clean energy and electric vehicle ownership.
“The area that we are monitoring is what happens with the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides a stimulus into certain parts of the energy complex,” Mr Sawan said.
Shell is “selectively” investing in those spaces but most of the investments play out over “at least a decade”, he added.
“The payback periods on these [investments] are anywhere between eight to 15 years, so you have to look through a single administration."
Opec+ volatility
The chief executive of Italian energy giant Eni said Opec+ oil supply cuts and recent efforts to unwind output curbs have raised volatility in global energy markets.
“Opec is playing a big role … but you saw that as soon as they say we are going to release some production, the price went down immediately,” Claudio Descalzi said.
“Now they say we postpone until the end of the year and that has made a big impact on the market. I think the volatile situation is not good."
On Sunday, eight Opec+ member countries agreed to extend voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for a month until the end of December this year amid a slump in oil prices.
“Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, have agreed to extend the November 2023 voluntary production adjustments,” the group said in a statement.
Oil prices jumped more than 2.5 per cent on Monday after the Opec decision. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 2.67 per cent up at $75.05 a barrel at 6.14pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading 2.92 per cent higher at $71.52 a barrel.
Brent is down by about 20 per cent since reaching $91 a barrel in April, as demand concerns from China and other developed economies outweigh fears of supply disruption in the Middle East.
In a separate panel, Opec's secretary general said he was confident about crude demand in the long term. "Economic growth [is] doing well despite all the talk about negative economic growth. Yes, there are some challenges but the picture is not as negative as some make it sound," Haitham Al Ghais said.
"Those who have that peak-demand scenario in their vision are now pushing the timeline even further out."
The International Energy Agency has predicted demand for oil, coal and gas is set to peak by 2030 amid growing adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy.
However, Mr Al Ghais said: "Peak demand is not going to happen, we're not going to have that because the world keeps growing."
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
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Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
GREATEST ROYAL RUMBLE CARD
The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
The five pillars of Islam
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The five pillars of Islam
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The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Brief scoreline
Switzerland 0
England 0
Result: England win 6-5 on penalties
Man of the Match: Trent Alexander-Arnold (England)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
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In numbers
1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:
- 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
- 150 tonnes to landfill
- 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal
800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal
Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Leganes v Getafe (12am)
Levante v Alaves (4pm)
Real Madrid v Sevilla (7pm)
Osasuna v Valladolid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Eibar v Atletico Madrid (12am)
Mallorca v Valencia (3pm)
Real Betis v Real Sociedad (5pm)
Villarreal v Espanyol (7pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Barcelona v Granada (12am)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The five pillars of Islam
