Adipec 2024: Energy leaders to convene in Abu Dhabi amid growing Middle East tension

Energy leaders, ministers, and policymakers will gather in Abu Dhabi amid heightened concerns of a region-wide conflict in the Middle East, and as industry stakeholders closely monitor next week’s US election, which could have far-reaching implications for the energy sector.

Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (Adipec) will take place from November 4 to 7, as the Middle East remains embroiled in geopolitical turmoil. With heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, along with the ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, the region's stability and energy security are facing significant challenges.

Oil traders are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports, which could significantly impact global crude supply and drive up prices.

“The range of possible outcomes for the oil market has seldom been as wide as it is at the current juncture,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of commodities, ESG and emerging markets at MUFG.

In one scenario, Middle East conflicts disrupt oil supply, tightening the market and raising prices, while in another, Opec+ uses its spare capacity to reclaim market share, which could drive prices down, Mr Khoman said in a research note last week.

“Both of these scenarios have existed before, but rarely collectively.”

Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, is down by nearly 20 per cent since reaching $91 a barrel in April this year, as demand concerns from China and other developed economies outweigh fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

This year’s Adipec will host more than 2,200 exhibitors and prominent speakers, including energy ministers from Jordan, Egypt, and Cyprus.

Key speakers include Opec Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, the UAE's Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei, and Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri.

Other notable speakers at Adipec are BP's chief executive Murray Auchincloss, Shell's chief executive Wael Sawan, Eni head Claudio Descalzi, and Petronas' chief executive Tengku Taufik.

The panel sessions will delve into the geopolitical, sustainability, and economic implications of decarbonisation and the future of the energy industry, with a particular focus on the role of artificial intelligence in driving these changes.

A key feature of this year's Adipec is the AI Zone, which will showcase cutting-edge AI solutions from companies such as enercap, Accenture, AIQ, Microsoft, and Baker Hughes.

“In its 40th edition, Adipec is set to be the most impactful yet, as the global energy community unites to drive practical solutions that will shape the future of energy, said Christopher Hudson, president of dmg events, the event’s organisers.

Election impact on Mena

The November 5 US presidential election will have significant consequences for national and global energy, and climate policies.

Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Centre on Global Energy Policy, said that while there may be minor differences in support for domestic oil production between a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump administration, “both are likely to commit to symbols of energy independence encouraging oil and gas production, which could have some impact on how Middle East oil and gas producers view the US as a competitor.”

The US, the world’s largest oil and gas producer, is headed for another year of record production, although with a significantly smaller increase as companies scale back activity following a wave of acquisitions in the industry.

Production from American oilfields reached a record high of 12.9 million barrels per day last year as companies utilised new technology to counterbalance lower oil prices and reduced rig counts.

“How Opec+ can maintain cohesion in the face of increasing supply from the Americas will create opportunities and challenges, especially for Saudi Arabia if the kingdom seeks closer defence and nuclear cooperation with the US,” Ms Young said in an October report.

A parallel effort by the kingdom to retake market share could ensue and even come with a US administration’s blessing despite the negative impact to US producers, she added.

When it comes to natural gas supply, Egypt’s declining gas production and exports could strain its finances, requiring further US, multilateral and Gulf support, Ms Young said.

Egypt achieved natural gas self-sufficiency in 2018 thanks to the discovery and operation of the Zohr field off its Mediterranean coast. This allowed the North African country to stop importing natural gas and briefly become an exporter.

However, the country began experiencing gas shortfalls in 2022, particularly due to the natural depletion of wells in the Zohr field, which contributes around 35 per cent of the country’s total gas production.