Israel’s retaliatory attacks on Iran are expected to have a “muted impact” on oil markets as they avoided oil facilities, the targeting of which could have caused supply disruptions from the Opec member.
Israel's military on Saturday launched strikes against Iran in retaliation for the missiles it fired at Israel earlier this month.
Targets included missile manufacturing centres and “additional Iranian aerial capabilities”, according to the Israel military.
Some hours later, Israel said it concluded the strikes and warned Iran against responding.
“Israel's choice of military targets, rather than airports, oil assets, or nuclear facilities, makes for the least disruptive version of retaliation as far as markets are concerned,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer told The National.
“Of course, direct attacks between Israel and Iran are an extremely serious matter but, in the context of all the red lines of conflict crossed in the last year, this is a relatively mild and calibrated escalation in the range of expectations that should have a muted impact on the oil price and regional markets.”
Iran’s military has confirmed that Israeli strikes early on Saturday were against bases in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces.
Tasnim news agency said the attack was launched from outside Iran’s borders, causing only “limited damage”.
Iran briefly suspended flights following the Israeli air strikes but later resumed operations.
Brent had soared following Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month but most of those gains have been erased as demand concerns over slowing Chinese growth have overshadowed supply fears.
Supply from non-Opec+ members is also rising, affecting oil prices.
Non-Opec+ oil supply, driven by the Americas, is set to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day this year and next, with the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada contributing more than 1 million bpd annually, the International Energy Agency said in its oil market report this month.
“The reprisal may pivot investor attention back on to the looming oversupply miring global oil markets in 2025,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of commodities, ESG and emerging markets at MUFG.
“Oil prices are poised to trade lower on Monday’s open with what’s left of the geopolitical risk premium likely ebbing in the absence of physical supply disruptions.”
Oil prices posted a weekly gain driven by concerns about Middle East supply disruptions even as demand concerns continued to weigh on oil markets.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, rose 2.25 per cent to end at $76.05 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, settled up 2.27 per cent at $71.78 a barrel.
The retaliatory Israeli strikes on Iran are expected to “calm tensions for the time being, putting downwards pressure on crude. Brent could resume its slide towards $70 in the coming week,” said Vandana Hari, chief executive of Singapore-based Vanda Insights.
However, any further escalation between the two countries “could drive the market to the upside even more in particular if other parties are drawn into the conflict”, Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at Tickmill brokerage firm, said.
“At the same time, other factors could continue to affect the market such as oil demand expectations which have been weighing on prices for a while as traders focus on China and the US and the direction of the economic growth in both countries,” Mr Dahrieh said.
China's crude consumption has shown signs of decline in recent months, which analysts attribute to both a slowing economy and a long-term shift towards the use of electric vehicles.
The country has announced several stimulus measures this year to address slowing manufacturing, a property market downturn and rising unemployment.
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• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
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• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Results
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Coming 2 America
Directed by: Craig Brewer
Starring: Eddie Murphy, Arsenio Hall, Jermaine Fowler, Leslie Jones
3/5 stars
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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1. Fasting
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AL%20BOOM
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The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
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Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
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The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
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Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
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- 600-seat auditorium
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- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
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Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
