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Oil prices plunged on Tuesday morning after reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had told the US his military would not attack nuclear or oil facilities in Iran eased supply concerns.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 4.75 per cent lower at $73.78 a barrel at 1.51pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 4.92 per cent at $70.20 a barrel.
Crude has sharply repriced geopolitical risk, with “energy traders continuing to unwind hedges placed on the threat of Iranian oil supplies being affected in the process”, said Chris Weston, head of research at online broker Pepperstone.
“The demand side of the equation also seems to be in play, with Opec projecting weaker demand forecasts.”
Mr Netanyahu agreed to limit his country’s retaliation against Iran for the October 1 missile attacks on Israel to military targets, the Washington Post reported on Monday. The newspaper quoted an official as saying the response would be calibrated to avoid the perception that Israel was interfering in next month’s US election.
“We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” Mr Netanyahu's office said, in a statement that was also quoted in the Washington Post article.
Brent had soared following Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, but most of those gains have been erased as demand concerns over slowing Chinese growth have overshadowed supply fears.
However, the oil market remains “highly influenced by geopolitical tensions at the moment, and on news on how Iran will respond to recent attacks”, said Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS.
“I still believe the market should retain a geopolitical risk premium, considering that we need to see first [what] the Israeli response looks like and how Iran might respond to that at a later stage,” he told The National.
“Generally, I continue to expect Brent to move back above $80 per barrel as the oil market remains undersupplied.”
Lower demand
The drop in prices comes after producers' group Opec on Monday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the third consecutive month.
In its oil market report, the group lowered the demand growth forecast for this year by 106,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million bpd, citing slightly reduced expectations for crude consumption in several regions. Opec also revised its forecast for next year down by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd.
The latest forecast cut comes as China's crude consumption shows signs of decline, which analysts attribute to both a slowing economy and a long-term shift towards the use of electric vehicles.
The country has this year announced several stimulus measures to address slowing manufacturing, a property market downturn and rising unemployment.
Last month, China’s central bank unveiled its largest economic stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic, including a reduction in its key short-term interest rate, a lowering of mortgage rates for existing housing loans and a one trillion yuan ($141.16 billion) liquidity injection.
Opec said China’s stimulus plan to revive its economy, the second-largest in the world, will support crude consumption. “In 2025, the positive impact of government fiscal stimulus introduced in September 2024 is expected to take hold,” the group said.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency expects world oil demand to expand nearly 900,000 bpd this year and close to 1 million bpd in 2025, marking a “sharp slowdown” on the roughly two million bpd over the 2022-2023 post-pandemic period, it said in its monthly report on Tuesday.
Chinese oil demand is “particularly weak”, with consumption dropping by 500,000 bpd year-on-year in August – its fourth consecutive month of declines.
“China underpins the deceleration in growth, accounting for around 20 per cent of global gains both this year and next year, compared to almost 70 per cent in 2023,” the IEA said.
Despite geopolitical risks, the market is likely to face a supply glut, according to the report.
“Heightened oil supply security concerns are set against a backdrop of a global market that – as we have been highlighting for some time – looks adequately supplied,” it said.
“For now, supply keeps flowing, and in the absence of a major disruption, the market is faced with a sizeable surplus in the new year.”
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Florence and the Machine – High as Hope
Three stars
Listen to Extra Time
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Honeymoonish
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
The biog
Age: 32
Qualifications: Diploma in engineering from TSI Technical Institute, bachelor’s degree in accounting from Dubai’s Al Ghurair University, master’s degree in human resources from Abu Dhabi University, currently third years PHD in strategy of human resources.
Favourite mountain range: The Himalayas
Favourite experience: Two months trekking in Alaska
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
FA CUP FINAL
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 3
Danilo (16'), Bernardo Silva (34'), Fernandinho (72')
Brighton & Hove Albion 1
Ulloa (20')
MATCH RESULT
Liverpool 4 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Liverpool: Salah (26'), Lovren (40'), Solanke (53'), Robertson (85')
MATCH INFO
Kolkata Knight Riders 245/6 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 214/8 (20 ovs)
Kolkata won by 31 runs
THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
MATCH INFO
Europa League final
Who: Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Where: Parc OL, Lyon, France
When: Wednesday, 10.45pm kick off (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Europa League semi-final, second leg
Atletico Madrid (1) v Arsenal (1)
Where: Wanda Metropolitano
When: Thursday, May 3
Live: On BeIN Sports HD
Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.
As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.
Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.
Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.
Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."
Maestro
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RESULTS
Mumbai Indians 181-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata Knight Riders 168-6 (20ovs)
Mumbai won by 13 runs
Rajasthan Royals 152-9 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 155-4 (18.4 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab won by 6 wickets
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Greatest Royal Rumble match listing
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Rusev
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v Kalisto
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
The Breadwinner
Director: Nora Twomey
Starring: Saara Chaudry, Soma Chhaya, Laara Sadiq
Three stars
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
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In Praise of Zayed
A thousand grains of Sand whirl in the sky
To mark the journey of one passer-by
If then a Cavalcade disturbs the scene,
Shall such grains sing before they start to fly?
What man of Honour, and to Honour bred
Will fear to go wherever Truth has led?
For though a Thousand urge him to retreat
He'll laugh, until such counsellors have fled.
Stands always One, defiant and alone
Against the Many, when all Hope has flown.
Then comes the Test; and only then the time
Of reckoning what each can call his own.
History will not forget: that one small Seed
Sufficed to tip the Scales in time of need.
More than a debt, the Emirates owe to Zayed
Their very Souls, from outside influence freed.
No praise from Roderic can increase his Fame.
Steadfastness was the Essence of his name.
The changing years grow Gardens in the Sand
And build new Roads to Sand which stays the same.
But Hearts are not rebuilt, nor Seed resown.
What was, remains, essentially Alone.
Until the Golden Messenger, all-wise,
Calls out: "Come now, my Friend!" - and All is known
- Roderic Fenwick Owen
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
Superliminal%20
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England's lowest Test innings
- 45 v Australia in Sydney, January 28, 1887
- 46 v West Indies in Port of Spain, March 25, 1994
- 51 v West Indies in Kingston, February 4, 2009
- 52 v Australia at The Oval, August 14, 1948
- 53 v Australia at Lord's, July 16, 1888
- 58 v New Zealand in Auckland, March 22, 2018
