Opec has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the third consecutive month, but is optimistic that China’s stimulus plan to revive its economy, the second-largest in the world, will support crude consumption.
In its oil market report released on Monday, the group lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 106,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million bpd, citing slightly reduced expectations for crude consumption in several regions. Opec also revised its forecast for world oil demand growth for next year down by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd.
The latest forecast cut comes as China's crude consumption shows signs of decline, which analysts attribute to both a slowing economy and a long-term shift towards the use of electric vehicles. The country has since last year announced several stimulus measures to address slowing manufacturing, a property market downturn and rising unemployment.
“These measures are expected to support the construction sector and oil demand, particularly in the fourth quarter,” Opec said.
Last month, China’s central bank unveiled its largest economic stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic, including a reduction in its key short-term interest rate, a lowering of mortgage rates for existing housing loans and a one trillion yuan ($141.16 billion) liquidity injection.
“In 2025, the positive impact of government fiscal stimulus introduced in September 2024 is expected to take hold,” the group said.
However, oil prices fell on Monday as traders were concerned about the lack of clarity regarding China’s stimulus plan. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 2.26 per cent lower at $77.25 at 3pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 2.38 per cent at $73.76 a barrel.
China will "significantly increase" government debt issuance to provide subsidies for people with low incomes, bolster the property market, and recapitalise state banks, Finance Minister Lan Foan announced at a news conference on Saturday.
He also mentioned that additional "counter-cyclical measures" will be implemented this year, though he did not specify the size of the upcoming fiscal stimulus.
"China's stimulus talk left investors wanting more. Despite vague promises, the yuan's decline and falling oil prices show scepticism about Beijing's growth plans,” said Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets, oil, Rystad Energy.
The central bank's liquidity injection seeks to reassure investors about China’s 5 per cent GDP growth target for this year, but support for oil prices may be short-lived without clearer policy measures during the upcoming National People’s Congress review, Mr Sahdev said in a research note on Monday.
NPC, which is responsible for enacting laws and approving the national budget, is expected convene for its 12th session in late October.
Vandana Hari, the chief executive of Vanda Insights, said that Monday’s oil price decline is due to “an erosion of the geopolitical risk premium.”
“The threatened Israeli strike on Iran hasn't materialised for almost a fortnight now and the longer it takes, the more the market will be inclined to start shedding the risk premium in crude,” she said.
Brent has gained roughly 9 per cent since Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1.
Oil traders are closely watching Israel's response, with some reports indicating that Israel could potentially target Iran’s oil and nuclear assets.
On Friday, the US expanded sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors in response to Iran’s second direct attack on Israel this year.
The move aims to intensify financial pressure on Iran, limiting the regime’s ability to earn “critical energy revenues to undermine stability in the region and attack US partners and allies”, the US Treasury Department said in a statement.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
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A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
Racecard
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WORLD'S%2010%20HIGHEST%20MOUNTAINS
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World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
MATCH INFO:
Second Test
Pakistan v Australia, Tuesday-Saturday, 10am daily at Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Entrance is free
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
More on Quran memorisation:
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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Where to donate in the UAE
The Emirates Charity Portal
You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.
The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments
The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.
Al Noor Special Needs Centre
You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.
Beit Al Khair Society
Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.
Dar Al Ber Society
Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.
Dubai Cares
Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.
Emirates Airline Foundation
Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.
Emirates Red Crescent
On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.
Gulf for Good
Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.
Noor Dubai Foundation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
