Libya to resume oil production after force majeure lifted

Libya will resume oil production starting on Thursday after the National Oil Corporation (NOC) lifted force majeure at all oilfields and terminals.

The development came after the state-owned oil company received a "formal security assessment" to resume crude production and export operations at Sharara, El Feel and Es Sider, NOC said in a statement posted on its Facebook and X pages on Thursday.

The company declared force majeure at Sharara and El Feel oilfields on August 7 and September 2, respectively, and on September 12 at Es Sider amid political tension in the country. Force majeure refers to an unforeseen set of circumstances preventing a party from fulfilling a contract.

Libya remains split between the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and a rival administration in the east, supported by military commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Most of Libya's oilfields fall under the latter's control.

In August, Libya’s eastern government announced the shutdown of all oilfields, suspending production and exports. This followed a decision by a rival administration in Tripoli to remove Central Bank governor Sadiq Al Kabir, whose role was to distribute the country's oil revenue between the two governments.

Libya has some of the cheapest, largely sweet oil in northern Africa. But much of it remained offline following a bloody civil war that erupted between rival factions after the downfall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

However, since 2020, oil production has been relatively stable in the Opec producer at between 1 and 1.1 million barrels per day, except for a short period in May-June 2022.

NOC aims to bolster oil production to 2.1 million bpd by 2025, from about 1.2 million bpd currently.

The latest development is expected to put downward pressure on oil prices going forward even as Middle East tension continues.

Oil prices rose on Thursday over concerns about potential disruption in crude oil supply from the region and following US President Joe Biden's comments that discussions are under way regarding potential Israeli air strikes on Iran's oil facilities.

“We’re discussing that. I think that would be a little … anyway,” Mr Biden said at the White House when asked if he supported Israel striking Iranian oil infrastructure.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 4.02 per cent higher at $76.87 a barrel at 7.24pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 4.41 per cent to $73.19 per barrel.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”