Opec raised its forecasts for world oil demand for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, citing growth led by India, Africa and the Middle East, and a slower shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters such as BP and the International Energy Agency, which expect oil use to peak this decade.
“Future energy demand is found in the developing world due to increasing populations, middle class and urbanisation,” said Opec Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais during the report's launch in Brazil, a country with which the group is seeking to form closer ties.
Mr Al Ghais's speech in Rio de Janeiro was briefly disturbed by a protester from Greenpeace.
A longer period of rising consumption would be a boost for Opec, whose 12 members depend on oil income. Opec said it expected more opposition to “ambitious” clean energy targets, and cited plans by several global car makers to scale down electrification goals.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Mr Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report.
“Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready.”
Opec expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day by 2045, about 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year's report. The report detailed its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.
That is far above other 2050 forecasts from the industry. BP projects oil use will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. ExxonMobil expects oil demand to stay above 100 million bpd until 2050, similar to today's level.
Opec has been calling for more oil industry investment and said the sector needs $17.4 trillion to be spent to 2050, compared with $14 trillion needed by 2045, estimated last year.
“All policymakers and stakeholders need to work together to ensure a long-term, investment-friendly climate,” Mr Al Ghais wrote.
Opec also raised its medium-term demand forecasts, citing a stronger economic backdrop than last year as inflation pressure wanes and central banks start to lower interest rates.
World demand in 2028 will reach 111 million bpd, Opec said, and 112.3 million bpd in 2029. The 2028 figure is up 800,000 bpd from last year's prediction.
Opec's 2029 forecast is more than 6 million bpd higher than that of the IEA, which in June said demand will plateau in 2029 at 105.6 million bpd. The gap is larger than the combined output of Opec members Kuwait and the UAE.
In 2020, Opec made a shift when the pandemic hit oil demand, saying consumption would plateau in the late 2030s. It has begun raising forecasts again as oil use has recovered.
By 2050, there will be 2.9 billion vehicles on the road, up 1.2 billion from 2023, Opec forecast. Despite electric vehicle growth, those powered by a combustion engine will account for more than 70 per cent of the global fleet in 2050, the report said.
“Electric vehicles are poised for a larger market share but obstacles remain, such as electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to critical minerals,” it said.
Opec and its allies, known as Opec+, are cutting supply to support the market.
The report sees Opec+'s share of the oil market rising to 52 per cent in 2050 from 49 per cent in 2023, as US output peaks in 2030 and non-Opec+ output does so in the early 2030s.
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group F
Manchester City v Hoffenheim, midnight (Wednesday, UAE)
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
TEAMS
EUROPE:
Justin Rose, Francesco Molinari, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Alex Noren, Thorbjorn Olesen, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson
USA:
Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bryson DeChambeau ( 1 TBC)
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
INDIA SQUADS
India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar
India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul
ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
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RESULT
Arsenal 0 Chelsea 3
Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
