Oil prices could head lower than their current levels, as traders expect a swift resolution to the Libyan oil blockade, with demand concerns taking centre stage, analysts have said.
An continuing political crisis in the North African country, an Opec member, has raised concerns about more than one million barrels per day being removed from the oil market.
However, oil prices have tumbled nearly 5 per cent this week as investors turn their attention to Opec+ barrels returning to the market and slowing economic growth in the US and China.
“Adjusted for inflation … oil is extremely cheap. That could entice long-term investors into oil-related assets,” said Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer.
“But, in the short-term, weak demand growth and output increases point to further downside. It all depends on your time frame," Mr Malik told The National.
Libya’s oil production has more than halved since the country’s eastern-based administration announced it was shutting down oilfields and suspending production amid rising tension with the UN-recognised government in Tripoli. It was producing about 1.2 million barrels per day before the crisis.
The standoff started last month when the head of the Presidency Council in Tripoli attempted to remove long-serving central bank Governor Sadiq Al Kabir and replace him with a rival board.
On Wednesday, the UN mission in Libya said that the two had reached an agreement to appoint a new governor for the central bank, which manages the nation’s oil revenue.
“The Libya factor did not inject much supply risk premium at its peak, now it is even less of a bullish factor, with the rival factions agreeing a compromise deal on the central bank,” said Vandana Hari, founder and chief executive of Vanda Insights.
Brent, the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, has lost more than 19 per cent of its value since reaching a high of $91 a barrel in April, as signs of slowing crude imports in China emerge and Opec+ is widely expected to gradually unwind voluntary supply cuts of 2.2 million bpd, starting next month.
Oil traders have also been paying close attention to US economic data and statements from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts.
“Crude’s recovery from current levels is beholden to US economic sentiment, as it has almost no other prop. I expect Opec+ to remain in a wait-and-watch mode, at least till the upcoming Fed meeting,” Ms Hari told The National.
The US regulator's next policy meeting is scheduled for September 17-18.
The market is "unduly concerned" about additional Opec+ volumes, Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS, said in a research note on Wednesday, further emphasising that the group has made it clear that these additions can be stopped or reversed if market conditions require.
Mr Staunovo also said that Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia may produce less to compensate for their undercompliance to the agreed Opec+ production cut quotas.
In August, Opec said it received updated compensation plans from Iraq and Kazakhstan for their overproduction in the first seven months of 2024, totalling 1.44 million bpd for Iraq and 699,000 bpd for Kazakhstan.
Last month, Morgan Stanley lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 1.1 million bpd, from 1.2 million bpd, citing weakness in the Chinese economy.
The investment bank also reduced its Brent price forecast, now expecting prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from a previous estimate of $85 per barrel.
China's second-quarter gross domestic product growth slowed to 4.7 per cent on an annual basis, from 5.3 per cent in the first quarter.
The world’s second-largest economy is facing challenges with a real estate crisis, sluggish consumer spending and a deceleration in manufacturing.
Trolls World Tour
Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake
Rating: 4 stars
Scoreline:
Everton 4
Richarlison 13'), Sigurdsson 28', Digne 56', Walcott 64'
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton)
Draw for Europa League last-16
Istanbul Basaksehir v Copenhagen; Olympiakos Piraeus v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Rangers v Bayer Leverkusen; VfL Wolfsburg v Shakhtar Donetsk; Inter Milan v Getafe
Sevilla v AS Roma; Eintracht Frankfurt or Salzburg v Basel; LASK v Manchester United
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
MATCH INFO
Day 1 at Mount Maunganui
England 241-4
Denly 74, Stokes 67 not out, De Grandhomme 2-28
New Zealand
Yet to bat
The specs
Price, base: Dh228,000 / Dh232,000 (est)
Engine: 5.7-litre Hemi V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 552Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.5L / 100km
The%20Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Movie
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aaron%20Horvath%20and%20Michael%20Jelenic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Pratt%2C%20Anya%20Taylor-Joy%2C%20Charlie%20Day%2C%20Jack%20Black%2C%20Seth%20Rogen%20and%20Keegan-Michael%20Key%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
FIGHT CARD
Sara El Bakkali v Anisha Kadka (Lightweight, female)
Mohammed Adil Al Debi v Moaz Abdelgawad (Bantamweight)
Amir Boureslan v Mahmoud Zanouny (Welterweight)
Abrorbek Madaminbekov v Mohammed Al Katheeri (Featherweight)
Ibrahem Bilal v Emad Arafa (Super featherweight)
Ahmed Abdolaziz v Imad Essassi (Middleweight)
Milena Martinou v Ilham Bourakkadi (Bantamweight, female)
Noureddine El Agouti v Mohamed Mardi (Welterweight)
Nabil Ouach v Ymad Atrous (Middleweight)
Nouredin Samir v Zainalabid Dadachev (Lightweight)
Marlon Ribeiro v Mehdi Oubahammou (Welterweight)
Brad Stanton v Mohamed El Boukhari (Super welterweight
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Conservative MPs who have publicly revealed sending letters of no confidence
- Steve Baker
- Peter Bone
- Ben Bradley
- Andrew Bridgen
- Maria Caulfield
- Simon Clarke
- Philip Davies
- Nadine Dorries
- James Duddridge
- Mark Francois
- Chris Green
- Adam Holloway
- Andrea Jenkyns
- Anne-Marie Morris
- Sheryll Murray
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Laurence Robertson
- Lee Rowley
- Henry Smith
- Martin Vickers
- John Whittingdale
Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
Our House, Louise Candlish,
Simon & Schuster
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Key Points
- Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
- Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
HEADLINE HERE
- I would recommend writing out the text in the body
- And then copy into this box
- It can be as long as you link
- But I recommend you use the bullet point function (see red square)
- Or try to keep the word count down
- Be wary of other embeds lengthy fact boxes could crash into
- That's about it
Racecard
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WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Fifa Club World Cup quarter-final
Kashima Antlers 3 (Nagaki 49’, Serginho 69’, Abe 84’)
Guadalajara 2 (Zaldivar 03’, Pulido 90')
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
