Every good robbery film has a twist, maybe two.
The takeover of Libya’s Central Bank certainly did – after his installation by the Tripoli-based western government, the new interim Deputy Governor Abdel-Fattah Ghaffar appealed on television for the previous leadership to give him the passwords. The second, more serious surprise is the shutdown of the country’s oil production.
The bank’s previous governor, Sadiq Al Kabir, had come to be backed by the eastern, Benghazi-based government, dominated by General Khalifa Haftar.
Mr Al Kabir was forced out following a dispute with Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah over the supply of funds, mostly from oil revenue, to his government. While Benghazi has seen a building boom, redevelopment in the west has stagnated.
As well as two governments and two central bank governors, Libya also has two oil ministers and might need a third after acting minister Khalifa Abdelsadiq, in the role for barely a month, was ordered to be arrested on charges of corruption.
Gen Haftar’s forces control most of the country’s key oil ports, as well as major fields in the far south-west that export through terminals west of Tripoli. In early August, Libya’s largest field, Sharara, was largely closed down.
Local protests were blamed, but responsibility appears to lie with Gen Haftar’s son Saddam, who ordered its stoppage in response to a Spanish arrest warrant issued for him in connection to allegations of arms smuggling. Sharara’s operating consortium features Spanish oil major Repsol.
Even then, though, the father and son had expressed concerns about the control of national oil revenue.
Last Monday, after the central bank takeover, the Benghazi administration declared the closure of all the country’s oil fields. Production was 1.17 million barrels per day in July, before the latest disruptions.
The National Oil Company issued and deleted statements, but said on Thursday its output was down to 591,000 barrels per day.
However, some oil ports were still operating late last week, while on Saturday, reports suggested three major fields in the east would return to production, and their associated Hariga port near Tobruk would resume operations. This may, though, be for local use to support the eastern economy and some private crude exports.
This confusion comes after the longest period of oil-sector stability in Libya’s postrevolutionary history. The most serious closure came through most of 2020, when national production was almost entirely halted during Gen Haftar’s ultimately unsuccessful attempt to capture Tripoli.
Since then, Libyan oil production has been quite stable, between 1 and 1.1 million barrels per day. The only exception was a relatively brief episode in May-June 2022, when the general’s forces blockaded fields, cutting national output in half.
The dispute ended when long-time NOC chairman Mustafa Sanallah was replaced by Farhat Bengdara, an ally of Gen Haftar’s. Since then, Libya has been making gradual progress on plans for more oil sector investment and increased production.
Oil prices have reacted only moderately to the shutdown news. Brent crude did gain more than $5 per barrel between August 21 and 26, but it has since given up about half those gains. Given the mixed messages from the various Libyan parties, and with international pressure on the new central bank leadership, this crisis might be resolved quickly.
The US administration, in particular, has leverage over Libyan financial transactions and would want to end the oil blockade swiftly to prevent a rise in prices ahead of November’s presidential election.
Europe, too, does not want to lose another important crude supplier to the Mediterranean, with the market there hit first by the ban on Russian crude imports, then the near-cessation of Middle East supplies delivered via the Red Sea.
But such short-term fixes won’t bring stability if not supported by a renewed Libyan political bargain. Even the previous status quo was dangerously dependent on the steady flow of funds to the west and east, both directly from oil exports and from redirecting smuggled fuel.
A prolonged halt in petroleum exports, or a sharp drop in prices, would undermine any compromise. A more overt conflict could repeat 2020s near-terminal halt.
Renewed volatility in Libya’s oil output complicates the job of Opec+. The group will have to decide very soon whether to pause its planned, phased increase in production, which was set to add 180,000 bpd each month from October.
The drop in Libyan output, if sustained, is equivalent to the planned boost from all other members to the end of the year. But if the cracks can be papered over, market conditions look less promising.
While they would sympathise with Libya’s problems, it would be very helpful for the rest of the Opec+ members to be able to proceed with easing production cuts without prices falling.
It would commence the long-overdue process of regaining market share. And it would permit those members that have submitted compensation plans for past overproduction, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia, to make up without having to change very much.
For now, the oil stoppage might be just another of Libya’s tempestuous but short-lived crises. The realignment of the political forces, though, suggests the situation is more fragile than for the last four years.
Neither local powers nor the key outside brokers seem to have a long-term solution, bringing oil market turbulence back to the southern Mediterranean shore.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Brief scores:
Toss: Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi, chose to field
Environment Agency: 193-3 (20 ov)
Ikhlaq 76 not out, Khaliya 58, Ahsan 55
Pakhtunkhwa Zalmi: 194-2 (18.3 ov)
Afridi 95 not out, Sajid 55, Rizwan 36 not out
Result: Pakhtunkhwa won by 8 wickets
Mountain%20Boy
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Results:
First Test: New Zealand 30 British & Irish Lions 15
Second Test: New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
Third Test: New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
Frida%20
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'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai,
HBKU Press
Read more about the coronavirus
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Company%20Profile
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Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
More on Quran memorisation:
Uefa Nations League
League A:
Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, France, England, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Iceland, Croatia, Netherlands
League B:
Austria, Wales, Russia, Slovakia, Sweden, Ukraine, Republic of Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Turkey
League C:
Hungary, Romania, Scotland, Slovenia, Greece, Serbia, Albania, Norway, Montenegro, Israel, Bulgaria, Finland, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania
League D:
Azerbaijan, Macedonia, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Andorra, Kosovo, San Marino, Gibraltar
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20TV%204K%20(THIRD%20GENERATION)
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Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In%20the%20Land%20of%20Saints%20and%20Sinners
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