Libya's latest oil blockade could disrupt crude exports to Europe, its biggest market, forcing European refineries to seek alternatives, experts said.
Libya's eastern-based administration said it was shutting down oilfields and suspending production amid rising tension with the UN-recognised government in Tripoli.
A statement by the Benghazi administration posted on X said it was “suspending all oil production and exports until further notice”, citing “force majeure”.
It linked the move to “repeated attacks on the leaders, employees and administrations of the Central Bank” in Tripoli, which manages Libya's large oil resources and the state budget.
Francesco Sassi, research fellow at Ricerche Industriali Energetiche in Bologna, said: “Europe has no other way but to look for alternative suppliers. The Atlantic basin seems a good place to start with, due to geopolitical constraints in the Suez Canal and Middle East straits.
“Western Africa, North and South America are the main alternative sources of oil. Yet the amount of crude that the Libyan chaos could take off the market is significant,” Mr Sassi told The National.
In 2020, Europe’s imports accounted for about 63 per cent of Libya’s crude oil and condensate exports, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Most of Libya’s exports went to Italy, Germany and Spain. In Asia, China received an estimated 25 per cent of Libya’s oil exports in 2020, the EIA said.
Libya's oil production stood at 1.2 million barrels per day before the state-owned National Oil Corporation closed the Sharara oilfield, the country’s largest, in response to protests on August 7.
National output as of Thursday morning amounted to 450,000 bpd, Francesco Calzoni, regional manager for North Africa and the Gulf at Aldebaran Threat Consultants told The National.
A portion of that will be allocated to meet domestic demand, which means exports will be significantly affected if production does not resume quickly, he said.
Austria’s OMV, one of the operators of Sharara, said the company’s other projects in Libya had not been affected.
“We are closely monitoring development and availability of Libyan crude oil supply,” OMV told The National on Wednesday.
“As of now, in case of a reduction in Libyan exports we anticipate that we can fully replace with alternative grades available on the market without an impact on our operations or to product supply.”
US crude option
Europe's main alternative source for Libya's light sweet crude is light sweet US shale oil.
“But it is unclear if there is sufficient excess supply and transport capacity for that to act as an immediate substitute that keeps a lid of price,” said Hasnain Malik, emerging and frontier markets equity strategy, Tellimer.
Europe became the top export destination for US crude in 2023 following the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in Dated Brent, which is used to price more than two-thirds of the world's traded crude oil.
Last year, US crude exports to Europe averaged 1.8 million bpd, slightly more than US exports to Asia and Oceania of 1.7 million bpd, according to the EIA.
No end in sight
The last time Libya suffered a major supply disruption was in 2022.
Military commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose forces control the oil-rich eastern Libya, orchestrated a blockade on fields and ports that year, prompting NOC to declare force majeure for exports.
The blockade was lifted following the appointment of Farhat Bengdara as NOC chairman.
In 2020, forces allied with Khalifa Haftar shut down Libya's key oil ports for eight months, causing a significant decline in the country's oil production.
"Without a significant and quick breakthrough in negotiations that offers a telling precedent for how long this disruption might last [the situation remains uncertain]," Mr Malik told The National.
Libya has remained divided since the civil war that ensued following the 2011 revolution.
The western part of the country is governed by the internationally recognised administration known as the Government of National Unity, which was established through a UN-led political process ahead of elections scheduled for December 2021.
In the eastern region, a rival government called the Government of National Stability emerged in March 2022, taking control of about three-quarters of the country's oil production capacity.
“How long Libyan disruptions last is very difficult to assess, we have seen them lasting few days to several months. My sense is it will last for a bit longer than the latest ones,” Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS, told The National.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
FORSPOKEN
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Luminous%20Productions%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Square%20Enix%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20January%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20of%20Heroes%203
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Relic%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20SEGA%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20February%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Star%20Wars%20Jedi%3A%20Survivor
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Respawn%20Entertainment%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Electronic%20Arts%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20March%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Suicide%20Squad%3A%20Kill%20the%20Justice%20League
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Rocksteady%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Warner%20Bros%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20May%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Final%20Fantasy%20XVI
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Square%20Enix%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Square%20Enix%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PS5%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20June%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Street%20Fighter%206
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Capcom%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Capcom%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PS5%2C%20XSX%2C%20PC%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20June%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Diablo%20IV
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Blizzard%20Entertainment%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Blizzard%20Entertainment%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20June%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Baldur's%20Gate%203
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Larian%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Larian%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20August%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The%20Legend%20of%20Zelda%3A%20Tears%20of%20The%20Kingdom
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Nintendo%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Nintendo%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20September%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Marvel's%20Spider-Man%202
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Insomniac%20Games%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20PlayStation%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PS5%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%20Fall%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Assassin's%20Creed%20Mirage
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20PS5%2C%20XSX%2C%20Amazon%20Luna%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Starfield
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Bethesda%20Game%20Studios%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Bethesda%20Softworks%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20PC%2C%20Xbox%0D%3Cbr%3ERelease%20date%3A%202023%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The five pillars of Islam
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
'The Lost Daughter'
Director: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Starring: Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Hot%20Seat
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20James%20Cullen%20Bressack%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Mel%20Gibson%2C%20Kevin%20Dillon%2C%20Shannen%20Doherty%2C%20Sam%20Asghari%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
MATCH DETAILS
Chelsea 4
Jorginho (4 pen, 71 pen), Azpilicueta (63), James (74)
Ajax 4
Abraham (2 og), Promes (20). Kepa (35 og), van de Beek (55)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Read more about the coronavirus
More on Quran memorisation:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20has%20been%20moored%20off%20the%20Yemeni%20coast%20of%20Ras%20Issa%20since%201988.%3Cbr%3EThe%20Houthis%20have%20been%20blockading%20UN%20efforts%20to%20inspect%20and%20maintain%20the%20vessel%20since%202015%2C%20when%20the%20war%20between%20the%20group%20and%20the%20Yemen%20government%2C%20backed%20by%20the%20Saudi-led%20coalition%20began.%3Cbr%3ESince%20then%2C%20a%20handful%20of%20people%20acting%20as%20a%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ae%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiw2OfUuKr4AhVBuKQKHTTzB7cQFnoECB4QAQ%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.thenationalnews.com%252Fworld%252Fmena%252Fyemen-s-floating-bomb-tanker-millions-kept-safe-by-skeleton-crew-1.1104713%26usg%3DAOvVaw0t9FPiRsx7zK7aEYgc65Ad%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Eskeleton%20crew%3C%2Fa%3E%2C%20have%20performed%20rudimentary%20maintenance%20work%20to%20keep%20the%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20intact.%3Cbr%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20is%20connected%20to%20a%20pipeline%20from%20the%20oil-rich%20city%20of%20Marib%2C%20and%20was%20once%20a%20hub%20for%20the%20storage%20and%20export%20of%20crude%20oil.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%E2%80%99s%20environmental%20and%20humanitarian%20impact%20may%20extend%20well%20beyond%20Yemen%2C%20experts%20believe%2C%20into%20the%20surrounding%20waters%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Djibouti%20and%20Eritrea%2C%20impacting%20marine-life%20and%20vital%20infrastructure%20like%20desalination%20plans%20and%20fishing%20ports.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Racecard
2pm Handicap Dh 90,000 1,800m
2.30pm Handicap Dh120,000 1,950m
3pm Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
3.30pm Jebel Ali Classic Conditions Dh300,000 1,400m
4pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.30pm Conditions Dh250,000 1,400m
5pm Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
5.30pm Handicap Dh85,000 1,000m
The National selections:
2pm Arch Gold
2.30pm Conclusion
3pm Al Battar
3.30pm Golden Jaguar
4pm Al Motayar
4.30pm Tapi Sioux
5pm Leadership
5.30pm Dahawi
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
General%20Classification
%3Cp%3E1.%20Elisa%20Longo%20Borghini%20(ITA)%20Trek-Segafredo%3Cbr%3E2.%20Gaia%20Realini%20(ITA)%20Trek-Segafredo%207%20secs%3Cbr%3E3.%20Silvia%20Persico%20(ITA)%20UAE%20Team%20ADQ%201%20min%2018%20secs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Name: Gul Raziq
From: Charsadda, Pakistan
Family: Wife and six children
Favourite holes at Al Ghazal: 15 and 8
Golf Handicap: 6
Childhood sport: cricket
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.3-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E299hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E420Nm%20at%202%2C750rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E12.4L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh157%2C395%20(XLS)%3B%20Dh199%2C395%20(Limited)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
