The geopolitical risk premium in oil markets, tied to the potential for a broader conflict in the Middle East, is fading, analysts have said, after oil recorded three consecutive days of declines.
Crude futures steadied in volatile trading amid rising prospects of a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war and a weakening demand outlook in China.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 0.32 per cent higher at $77.45 a barrel at 4.50pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 0.31 per cent at $73.40 a barrel.
Brent has lost about 6 per cent of its value since rising above $82 a barrel on Monday last week. WTI has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period.
Both Brent and WTI have fallen by nearly 3 per cent since the start of this week.
“The oil market’s recent poor form is continuing this week as a ceasefire in Gaza grows more likely and China demand weakness shows little sign of recovery,” said Svetlana Tretyakova, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
“Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, clashes between Israel and Hamas continue, and the markets will remain highly sensitive to any developments in the region.”
Israel has accepted a “bridging proposal” presented by the US to address disagreements hindering a ceasefire deal in Gaza, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday.
The focus has shifted to getting Hamas on board and finalising implementation details, Mr Blinken said.
Hamas, meanwhile, said on Tuesday that the latest proposal overturns what it had agreed to, accusing the US of yielding to new conditions from Israel.
Brent has dropped about 15 per cent since reaching $91 a barrel in April, due to concerns over weakening demand, particularly in China, the world’s largest crude importer, and easing supplies.
“Fundamental signals from the oil market are mixed. Data from China’s economy continues to underwhelm – industrial production extended its slowdown into July while construction activity has also been easing,” said Edward Bell, head of market economics at Emirates NBD.
Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing weakness in Chinese crude imports.
The IEA now expects global oil consumption to grow by 950,000 barrels per day next year, down 30,000 bpd from its previous forecast.
Investors are also looking for signals regarding the US Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.
Calls for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates intensified this month after a disappointing jobs report raised fears of a recession in the world’s largest economy and triggered a sudden but brief market sell-off.
“Although inflation is cooling, it does not warrant immediate changes in the Fed policy. Discussions on rate cuts may arise in September, but any adjustments will likely be gradual,” said Ms Tretyakova.
“In the energy sector, potential rate cuts could have mixed effects.”
Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses, boost economic growth, and typically increase oil demand.
Opec+ cuts
The alliance of oil-producing countries plans to gradually lift voluntary production curbs of 2.2 million bpd on a monthly basis from October 2024 to September 2025.
However, Opec+ has said that the monthly increases in output could be “paused or reversed” depending on market conditions.
“If the market fundamentals don’t break this bearish trend soon, Opec+ may be hesitant to unwind their voluntary cuts anytime soon,” Ms Tretyakova said.
In its August report, the IEA warned that the oil market might face an oversupply in 2025 if Opec+ follows through with its plan to reintroduce additional barrels to the market.
Even if those cuts remain in place, global crude stocks could build by an average 860,000 bpd next year, the agency said.
“The producers’ alliance may need to temper their plan to increase production to forestall an expected surplus … but this strategy may arguably be already priced into the market,” Mr Bell said.
“Any public dispute among Opec+ members on where to take production from here could spark a more meaningful downside slump for oil,” he added.
The group’s total supply cuts of 5.86 million bpd represent about 5.7 per cent of global crude demand.
Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
SPECS
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
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Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre turbo 4-cyl
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Power: 190bhp
Torque: 300Nm
Price: Dh169,900
On sale: now
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
Tips for avoiding trouble online
- Do not post incorrect information and beware of fake news
- Do not publish or repost racist or hate speech, yours or anyone else’s
- Do not incite violence and be careful how to phrase what you want to say
- Do not defame anyone. Have a difference of opinion with someone? Don’t attack them on social media
- Do not forget your children and monitor their online activities
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
COPA DEL REY
Semi-final, first leg
Barcelona 1 (Malcom 57')
Real Madrid (Vazquez 6')
Second leg, February 27
ACL Elite (West) - fixtures
Monday, Sept 30
Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)
Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
