By the end of the decade, the oil market's spare capacity is projected to reach levels previously seen only during the peak of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
Total supply capacity is expected to increase to nearly 114 million barrels per day by 2030, surpassing the projected global demand by 8 million barrels per day, the Paris-based agency said in a report.
Spare capacity at such levels could have “significant” consequences for oil markets, including for Opec members and the US shale industry, the report said.
“Oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” said IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol.
“As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance, and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down and set to reach its peak by 2030.”
Global oil demand is projected to be 3.2 million bpd higher in 2030 compared to last year, driven by increased oil consumption in emerging Asian economies, the report said.
The growth is particularly due to higher transport-related oil use in India and increased demand for jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks, especially in China, the IEA added.
Meanwhile, oil consumption in advanced economies is expected to decline to 43 million bpd by 2030 – the lowest since 1991.
Producers outside of the Opec+ alliance are driving the expansion of global production capacity to meet anticipated demand of 106 million bpd by the end of the decade, making up three-quarters of the expected increase.
The US is set to contribute 2.1 million bpd to the non-Opec+ increase, with Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana adding an additional 2.7 million bpd, the report said.
“As the flow of approved projects fizzles out towards the end of this decade, capacity growth slows and then stalls among the leading non-Opec+ producers,” the IEA said.
“However, if companies continue to approve additional projects already on the drawing board, a further 1.3 million bpd of non-Opec+ capacity could become operational by 2030.”
Global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3 million bpd between 2023 and 2030, which is well below historical trends, according to the IEA.
However, this should be enough to meet the demand for refined oil products during this period, thanks to a simultaneous increase in the supply of non-refined fuels like biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs), the agency said.
“This raises the prospect of refinery closures towards the end of the outlook period, as well as a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027,” it added.
Based on current policies, strong demand from rapidly growing Asian economies, as well as from the aviation and petrochemicals industries, will increase oil consumption in the coming years, the IEA said.
However, these increases will be offset by rising electric car sales, improved fuel efficiency, reduced use of oil for electricity generation in the Middle East, and structural economic shifts.
Opec divergence
Opec and the IEA have been increasingly at odds regarding their differing assumptions concerning peak oil and scenarios for demand growth.
The IEA predicts that oil demand will reach its peak by 2030, whereas Opec does not foresee a peak and expects crude demand to continue increasing for the next two decades.
Last year, the group of oil-producing countries raised its long-term crude demand forecast to 116 million bpd by 2045, an increase of six million bpd from its previous estimate.
For this year, Opec has estimated oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd, which is twice the IEA's projection of a 1.1 million bpd increase.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
Asia Cup Qualifier
Venue: Kuala Lumpur
Result: Winners play at Asia Cup in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in September
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29: Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30: UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6: Final
Asia Cup
Venue: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Schedule: Sep 15-28
Teams: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, plus the winner of the Qualifier
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
