Asked in 1919 whether it was true that only three people understood Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, physicist Arthur Eddington replied: “I am trying to think who the third person is.”
The latest Opec+ decision seems almost as complicated. Analysts scratch their heads: is it good or bad for prices, short and long term, and what does it say about the oil exporters’ calculus?
First, the axioms of the deal. Current cuts, both the mandatory and voluntary ones, will be continued until the end of September. Then the 2.2 million barrels per day of “voluntary” cuts, made by a group of eight Opec+ members including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia, will be phased out at 200,000 bpd each month from October – that is, they should be completely removed by the end of August 2025.
However, the bigger group of 3.65 million bpd of cuts made by the entire Opec+ group (excluding three exempt members – Iran, Libya and Venezuela) will be retained until the end of 2025.
A chunk of this includes phantom cuts by countries that could not produce up to their assigned targets. Conversely, the UAE’s required production will be increased by 300,000 bpd, phased in gradually over the first nine months of next year, in recognition of its significantly increased capacity.
The alliance also retains the option to pause or reverse the lifting of cuts, depending on market conditions – though the UAE’s boost is firm. A planned reassessment by independent consultants of each country’s production capacity will be postponed until November 2025 for input into the 2026 policy. The UAE and Iraq in particular will be looking for official confirmation of their higher capacities.
Oil prices dropped more than $3 per barrel on the news, possibly exaggerated by algorithmic and momentum traders, but then made up some of the lost ground on Thursday.
Goldman Sachs declared the decision was bearish, citing the plan to phase out the voluntary production cuts, and lowered their price estimate to $75-$90 per barrel, with risks to the downside.
Hedge funds have their least bullish position in about a decade.
JP Morgan, though, saw the move as bullish in the longer term, signalling stronger demand, even if it led to short-term weakness.
So, in the words of Austin Powers: “What does it all mean, Basil?”
Some commentators remarked on continuing price volatility, and Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, discussed continuing economic uncertainties with only pockets of strong demand.
Uncertainties are always there, of course, but what is remarkable is how non-volatile prices have been in the last year and a half. They gyrated wildly from $68 per barrel just before the Covid pandemic, $21 in the worst period of the restrictions, to $139 in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, since late 2022, prices have oscillated moderately about $85 per barrel, basically the long-term inflation-corrected average, almost never breaking $10 per barrel higher or lower.
Part of this relative stability is explained by Opec+’s tuning of its cuts. And the latest decision should remove another potential source of volatility.
It limits the likelihood of a steep rise in prices if economic conditions improve, since then Opec+ will follow its trajectory of returning barrels to the market.
And on the downside, it eliminates for now the possibility of further defections from Opec, like Angola’s departure in December, or a breakdown of the production cuts system.
Serial over-producers, such as Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan, have space to get back on target, even if they don’t compensate for past excesses. But they are also on notice that Riyadh will not shoulder the burden of extra production cuts solo.
Market balances suggest a significant deficit in the fourth quarter, even with the return of some Opec+ production – a limited amount, on the published schedule.
Opec’s own estimates for demand growth this year look too optimistic, given quite weak Asian import data. But its official projections don’t seem to have weighed heavily in this decision, and other agencies’ estimates also point to a drawdown of inventories.
While demand growth next year may not be strong enough to accommodate all the planned Opec+ increases, it seems unlikely the US will repeat its stellar production performance of this year in the face of lower prices. American crude and condensate output has not risen overall since October. While some projects in the Gulf of Mexico are due to start, production and exports could also be interrupted by an expected unusually strong hurricane season.
This decision accepts some short-term price weakness, for a more sustainable longer-term picture for Opec+. It marks a cautious reversal of the sequence of cuts; it turns from a strategy of price defence to one of regaining market share, as I have advocated for some time. That should allow a little more demand growth in emerging economies while deterring some high-cost competing production.
Analysts who point to the oil price Saudi Arabia “needs” to balance its budget should recall that it is revenue that matters – and revenue is price multiplied by volume.
So, we can cut through all the complexity of which cuts are being relaxed when, and by whom, and focus on the essentials. The Opec+ decision means mildly lower prices for now, but likely higher prices over the longer term as the group regains some market share. It is very cautious and qualified and open to being paused if market conditions aren’t as favourable as anticipated. It should limit volatility both on the upside and downside.
Opec+ has helpfully provided a chart of projected monthly production allowances for each member. But even without that, we don’t need advanced mathematics to identify this inflection point in the group’s market management.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
THE APPRENTICE
Director: Ali Abbasi
Starring: Sebastian Stan, Maria Bakalova, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 3/5
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
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Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
UAE%20medallists%20at%20Asian%20Games%202023
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PRISCILLA
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WRESTLING HIGHLIGHTS
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESplintr%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMay%202019%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammad%20AlMheiri%20and%20Badr%20AlBadr%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20and%20Riyadh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epayments%20%2F%20FinTech%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10%20employees%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%20seven-figure%20sum%20%2F%20pre-seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eangel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20112%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Invincible%20(April%2010%2C%202010)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENogueira%20v%20Nelson%20(April%2011%2C%202014)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20242%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khabib%20v%20Poirier%20(September%207%2C%202019)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20251%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Usman%20v%20Masvidal%20(July%2012%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kattar%20v%20Ige%20(July%2016%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFigueiredo%20v%20Benavidez%202%20(July%2019%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%20Whittaker%20v%20Till%20(July%2026%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20253%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdesanya%20v%20Costa%20(September%2027%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holm%20v%20Aldana%20(October%204%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Moraes%20v%20Sandhagen%20(October%2011%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ortega%20v%20Korean%20Zombie%20(October%2018%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20254%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhabib%20v%20Gaethje%20(October%2024%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ABC%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holloway%20v%20Kattar%20(January%2016%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chiesa%20v%20Magny%20(January%2020%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20257%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPoirier%20v%20McGregor%202%20(January%2024%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20267%3A%20Blachowicz%20v%20Teixeira%20(October%2030%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20280%3A%20Oliveira%20v%20Makhachev%20(October%2022%2C%202022)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
AL%20BOOM
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Top%2010%20most%20competitive%20economies
%3Cp%3E1.%20Singapore%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Switzerland%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Denmark%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Ireland%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Hong%20Kong%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%20Sweden%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%20Taiwan%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%20Netherlands%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%20Norway%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Ready Player One
Dir: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Tye Sheridan, Olivia Cooke, Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance
