Iran is expected to maintain consistency in its oil policy following the death of president Ebrahim Raisi, industry experts have said.
However, they warned that Iranian crude supply faces a greater threat from a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Iran has managed to endure US sanctions imposed in 2018, aimed at crippling its oil exports – a major source of revenue for the country.
Since President Joe Biden assumed office in 2021, sanctions enforcement has relaxed, leading China to become a significant purchaser of Iranian oil, often at discounted prices.
“In terms of energy policy, this is a period where Iran needs as much consistency as possible. They need continued revenue flows [and] they need to be able to count on resources to be able to support this internal political transition,” said Carlos Pascual, senior vice president, geopolitics and international affairs at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
“The expectation of its principal importers, particularly China, will be that they need to continue to rely on those resources. And I would expect that Iran would remain consistent in the implementation of its energy policy,” Mr Pascual told The National on the sidelines of an energy event in Dubai this week.
Mr Raisi, who was seen as a potential successor to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on Sunday when his helicopter crashed in mountains near the Azerbaijan border.
Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, East Azerbaijan provincial governor Malik Rahmati and Mohammed Ali Ale Hashem, Mr Ali Khamenei's representative to East Azerbaijan, also died in the crash in north-west Iran.
What lies ahead for crude production?
Iran was the second-largest source of crude supply growth last year after the US, with production reaching about 3.4 million barrels per day and exports at about 1.5 million bpd.
“We are seeing now the production stabilising at 3.2-3.3 million bpd and exports are holding, and we think they’ll be able to do that,” said Toril Bosoni, head of oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The Paris-based agency is monitoring how the recent development might affect Iranian politics and what actions a possible new US administration might take regarding sanctions on Iran, Ms Bosoni told The National.
“China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, and they seem to circumvent the sanctions that are already in place, so it's an open question,” she said.
Most of Iran’s crude is exported to China through a network of dark fleet tankers, which has grown over the past five years as both countries seek to bypass international sanctions.
The US suspects that Tehran uses Malaysia as an intermediary, transferring crude oil to Malaysian vessels or conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the country's waters. This process allegedly conceals the Iranian origin before the oil reaches its final destination, likely China.
“We see little appetite from the Biden administration to tighten sanctions enforcement given its desire to keep oil prices low, although it may look for opportunities to make Iran offer deeper discounts,” said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.
The London-based consultancy expects Iranian oil smuggling to continue at about 1.5 million bpd for the rest of this year.
Impact of sanctions on supply
If Mr Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, were to return to the White House next year, his administration is expected to enforce sanctions against Iran more aggressively, “creating downside risks to Iranian supplies, which, in turn, could undermine Iran’s already fragile economy”, Mr Bronze said.
Iran's gross domestic product growth is projected to decline to 3.3 per cent this year compared with 4.7 per cent in 2023 amid sanctions, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Earlier this month, US officials raised concerns with the Malaysian government about ship-to-ship transfers of sanctioned Iranian oil off the coast of the South-East Asian country. However, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has denied these claims.
“Will a President Trump somehow change the mind of the Malaysians; I don't think so. But even [if he manages to do so], it takes time for any sanctions [to] really have an impact,” Jim Burkhard, vice president, oil markets, energy and mobility, S&P Global, told The National.
Oil policy outlook
As far as Iran’s oil policy in the short-term is concerned, Mr Burkhard does not expect to see a significant impact from the president’s death.
“It does add a degree of uncertainty about Iranian policy, but the supreme leader is the person who decides the overall course [of] the direction of policies [and] he's still there,” he said.
However, questions are being raised about a potential successor for the 85-year-old leader, who took over the country’s highest role in 1989 after the death of the Islamic Republic's founding father, Ayatollah Khomeini.
It would also come at a time when the regime faces high levels of domestic discontent, as well as serious international challenges. Iran and its arch-foe Israel were recently involved in a series of retaliatory attacks related to the war in Gaza.
“Even if the government is not particularly popular … [it] can still endure for some time to come. What really matters is that the Supreme Leader is of an age where the question of who's going to replace him is relevant and very important,” Mr Burkhard said.
“And that leadership change, when it happens … that will be a big decision point.”
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
More on Quran memorisation:
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
HOW TO WATCH
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clinicy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Prince%20Mohammed%20Bin%20Abdulrahman%2C%20Abdullah%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%20and%20Saud%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2025%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20More%20than%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Gate%20Capital%2C%20Kafou%20Group%20and%20Fadeed%20Investment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from our Neighbourhood series:
WORLD'S%2010%20HIGHEST%20MOUNTAINS
%3Cp%3E1.%09Everest%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%09K2%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%09Kangchenjunga%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%09Lhotse%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%09Makalu%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%09Cho%20Oyu%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%09Dhaulagiri%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%09Manaslu%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%09Nanga%20Parbat%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%09Annapurna%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
INDIA SQUAD
Virat Kohli (capt), Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Vijay Shankar, MS Dhoni (wk), Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Yuzvendra Chahal, Kuldeep Yadav, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Jasprit Bumrah, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami
IF YOU GO
The flights: FlyDubai offers direct flights to Catania Airport from Dubai International Terminal 2 daily with return fares starting from Dh1,895.
The details: Access to the 2,900-metre elevation point at Mount Etna by cable car and 4x4 transport vehicle cost around €57.50 (Dh248) per adult. Entry into Teatro Greco costs €10 (Dh43). For more go to www.visitsicily.info
Where to stay: Hilton Giardini Naxos offers beachfront access and accessible to Taormina and Mount Etna. Rooms start from around €130 (Dh561) per night, including taxes.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Enterprise-grade%20security%20and%20privacy%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Unlimited%20higher-speed%20GPT-4%20access%20with%20no%20caps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Longer%20context%20windows%20for%20processing%20longer%20inputs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Advanced%20data%20analysis%20capabilities%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Customisation%20options%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shareable%20chat%20templates%20that%20companies%20can%20use%20to%20collaborate%20and%20build%20common%20workflows%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Analytics%20dashboard%20for%20usage%20insights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Free%20credits%20to%20use%20OpenAI%20APIs%20to%20extend%20OpenAI%20into%20a%20fully-custom%20solution%20for%20enterprises%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Liverpool's all-time goalscorers
Ian Rush 346
Roger Hunt 285
Mohamed Salah 250
Gordon Hodgson 241
Billy Liddell 228
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%20Baniyas%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(PA)%20Dh97%2C500%20(Dirt)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alajaj%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%20(jockey)%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.35pm%3A%20The%20Pointe%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Awasef%2C%20Pat%20Dobbs%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.10pm%3A%20Palm%20West%20Beach%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Long%20Kiss%2C%20Jose%20da%20Silva%2C%20Antonio%20Cintra%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.45pm%3A%20The%20View%20at%20the%20Palm%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Ranaan%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.20pm%3A%20Nakheel%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh105%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Raaeb%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.55pm%3A%20The%20Club%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh95%2C000%20(D)%201%2C900m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Qareeb%2C%20Sam%20Hitchcock%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%3A%20Palm%20Beach%20Towers%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Falsehood%2C%20Adrie%20de%20Vries%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Forced%20Deportations
%3Cp%3EWhile%20the%20Lebanese%20government%20has%20deported%20a%20number%20of%20refugees%20back%20to%20Syria%20since%202011%2C%20the%20latest%20round%20is%20the%20first%20en-mass%20campaign%20of%20its%20kind%2C%20say%20the%20Access%20Center%20for%20Human%20Rights%2C%20a%20non-governmental%20organization%20which%20monitors%20the%20conditions%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20in%20Lebanon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%9CIn%20the%20past%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20General%20Security%20was%20responsible%20for%20the%20forced%20deportation%20operations%20of%20refugees%2C%20after%20forcing%20them%20to%20sign%20papers%20stating%20that%20they%20wished%20to%20return%20to%20Syria%20of%20their%20own%20free%20will.%20Now%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20army%2C%20specifically%20military%20intelligence%2C%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20security%20operation%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Mohammad%20Hasan%2C%20head%20of%20ACHR.%3Cbr%3EIn%20just%20the%20first%20four%20months%20of%202023%20the%20number%20of%20forced%20deportations%20is%20nearly%20double%20that%20of%20the%20entirety%20of%202022.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESince%20the%20beginning%20of%202023%2C%20ACHR%20has%20reported%20407%20forced%20deportations%20%E2%80%93%20200%20of%20which%20occurred%20in%20April%20alone.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20comparison%2C%20just%20154%20people%20were%20forcfully%20deported%20in%202022.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Violence%20
%3Cp%3EInstances%20of%20violence%20against%20Syrian%20refugees%20are%20not%20uncommon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJust%20last%20month%2C%20security%20camera%20footage%20of%20men%20violently%20attacking%20and%20stabbing%20an%20employee%20at%20a%20mini-market%20went%20viral.%20The%20store%E2%80%99s%20employees%20had%20engaged%20in%20a%20verbal%20altercation%20with%20the%20men%20who%20had%20come%20to%20enforce%20an%20order%20to%20shutter%20shops%2C%20following%20the%20announcement%20of%20a%20municipal%20curfew%20for%20Syrian%20refugees.%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThey%20thought%20they%20were%20Syrian%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20the%20mayor%20of%20the%20Nahr%20el%20Bared%20municipality%2C%20Charbel%20Bou%20Raad%2C%20of%20the%20attackers.%3Cbr%3EIt%20later%20emerged%20the%20beaten%20employees%20were%20Lebanese.%20But%20the%20video%20was%20an%20exemplary%20instance%20of%20violence%20at%20a%20time%20when%20anti-Syrian%20rhetoric%20is%20particularly%20heated%20as%20Lebanese%20politicians%20call%20for%20the%20return%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20to%20Syria.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Hidden killer
Sepsis arises when the body tries to fight an infection but damages its own tissue and organs in the process.
The World Health Organisation estimates it affects about 30 million people each year and that about six million die.
Of those about three million are newborns and 1.2 are young children.
Patients with septic shock must often have limbs amputated if clots in their limbs prevent blood flow, causing the limbs to die.
Campaigners say the condition is often diagnosed far too late by medical professionals and that many patients wait too long to seek treatment, confusing the symptoms with flu.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
