Australia is the lucky country. Donald Horne gave it that moniker ironically in his famous 1964 book, arguing his country prospered on natural resources and immigration rather than its “second-rate” political or economic system. The energy and climate transition will test just how much luck there is Down Under.
The nation is an energy superpower – and its strength extends across the spectrum, with the exception of oil. It is the second-biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), neck-and-neck with the US and Qatar, the second-biggest exporter of coal, just behind Indonesia, and the fourth-biggest miner of uranium.
It is rich, too, in the minerals that construct new energy technologies. Notably, it leads in lithium, extracting almost half the world's total. It is a lesser but not insignificant player in cobalt, nickel, rare earths, copper and silver. Ninety per cent of its exports are energy, minerals, metals and agricultural products.
And its vast, sparsely-peopled terrain allow it to take advantage of strong renewable resources. From virtually nothing, solar power has boomed to the point of having the highest per-capita use of any large country in the world.
Its solar generation is twice that of the whole of Africa, and is more than the whole of the sunny Middle East. And, fair dinkum to its wind power industry, too, which is also considerable.
Its coal exports have boomed, despite an unofficial ban from China on purchases that ran from mid-2020 until the end of 2022. But a growing share of renewables has steadily driven down domestic coal consumption since 2008. In turn, carbon dioxide emissions have gradually dropped.
Solar and wind, extensive coastlines and proximity to hungry Asian markets, make it an ideal location to produce green – renewable-derived – solar power.
By 2030, the island continent could be the leading exporter of green hydrogen in the world, according to projections from consultancy Rystad. There is even hope to find naturally-occurring “white” or “gold” hydrogen underground in South Australia.
Hydrogen is also key to decarbonising the large domestic metals mining and processing industry. That is the vision of Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest, chairman of Fortescue Metals and the second-richest Australian.
In partnership with software billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes, he launched SunCable, a plan to build a $21 billion, 4,300km electricity line to carry Australian renewable electricity to Singapore. Mr Cannon-Brookes is now forging on alone, after they parted ways over Mr Forrest’s preference for hydrogen exports.
These natural advantages are combined with political stability – despite the superficial turmoil of a revolving door of prime ministers, usually expelled by their own party colleagues. It has a trusted legal system, a skilled workforce and good infrastructure.
Like Canada, Australia is a rare wealthy western democracy that is also a leading mining destination, making it attractive as a supplier of critical minerals to planned clean energy manufacturing in the US and Europe. Covid apart, Australia has not suffered a recession since 1991.
So far, so good – by luck or by skill. But Australia’s energy powerhouse faces challenges.
First is the LNG industry. Competition is heating up: the US and Qatar have massive expansion programmes, which may lead to a glut of the fuel around 2027, and a sharp drop in prices.
Australia’s LNG projects are already very expensive to construct and operate compared to its competitors, from a combination of technical challenges and remoteness, strict environmental regulations, strong labour unions, and poor project management by many of the companies involved.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Inpex, a major investor in Australian LNG, suggested last year that the country was “quietly quitting” the business.
The company was concerned about what it saw as retrospective changes to the rules, including an increase in petroleum taxation, the introduction of carbon taxes, and the requirement for new gasfields to be net-zero carbon.
The east coast has suffered from very expensive gas to domestic users while companies sell LNG overseas, sparking calls for exports to be halted. That in turn worries international customers, including Japan, who saw Australia as a guarantor for their energy security.
But the introduction of a cap on gas prices, and opposition from environmentalists and farmers, makes it hard to develop new gasfields in the more populated eastern states.
Rather than growing to keep up with rivals, LNG production is likely to decline as older fields are exhausted and not replaced by new developments.
Second is coal. This was more than a quarter of the country’s entire exports in 2022. But of the key export destinations, only India seems a likely long-term growth market.
Others are boosting domestic coal output, as China is doing, or trying to get off the dirty fuel entirely in favour of renewables, gas and nuclear power.
Third, relatedly, is carbon. Climate policy has oscillated between a succession of Liberal (centre-right) and Labor (centre-left) governments. Emissions are dropping, helped by the renewable boom and some creative accounting on carbon uptake by the land. Electric vehicles are finally gaining speed.
Nevertheless, the country is still well short of sufficient climate targets, and recent progress could be undone by a new government, with elections due by September next year.
Fourth is global warming. Australia’s strong reputation for agriculture and tourism belie its largely hot, arid climate. It suffered a severe drought between 2017-19, devastating wildfires in 2019-20, and the famed Great Barrier Reef is increasingly threatened by bleaching as the sea becomes intolerably hot for its corals.
Australia has the advantage of its non-carbon commodities, particularly the energy-transition related minerals that will see rising demand. However, even very successful hydrogen exports will not fully replace the profits from LNG and coal.
Australia has some first-class minerals and energy companies, entrepreneurial talent and technology. Sixty years on from Mr Horne’s book, it has a lot more going for it that just luck.
But, like other energy exporters, it needs to unite federation, states, companies and population around a vision that resolves its climate and carbon contradictions.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
if you go
The flights Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Emirates, Etihad, and Royal Jordanian all offer direct, three-and-a-half-hour flights from the UAE to the Jordanian capital Amman. Alternatively, from June Fly Dubai will offer a new direct service from Dubai to Aqaba in the south of the country. See the airlines’ respective sites for varying prices or search on reliable price-comparison site Skyscanner.
The trip
Jamie Lafferty was a guest of the Jordan Tourist Board. For more information on adventure tourism in Jordan see Visit Jordan. A number of new and established tour companies offer the chance to go caving, rock-climbing, canyoning, and mountaineering in Jordan. Prices vary depending on how many activities you want to do and how many days you plan to stay in the country. Among the leaders are Terhaal, who offer a two-day canyoning trip from Dh845 per person. If you really want to push your limits, contact the Stronger Team. For a more trek-focused trip, KE Adventure offers an eight-day trip from Dh5,300 per person.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Trippier bio
Date of birth September 19, 1990
Place of birth Bury, United Kingdom
Age 26
Height 1.74 metres
Nationality England
Position Right-back
Foot Right
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The%20Little%20Mermaid%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rob%20Marshall%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHalle%20Bailey%2C%20Jonah%20Hauer-King%2C%20Melissa%20McCarthy%2C%20Javier%20Bardem%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Disposing of non-recycleable masks
Use your ‘black bag’ bin at home
Do not put them in a recycling bin
Take them home with you if there is no litter bin
- No need to bag the mask
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
WHAT FANS WILL LOVE ABOUT RUSSIA
FANS WILL LOVE
Uber is ridiculously cheap and, as Diego Saez discovered, mush safer. A 45-minute taxi from Pulova airport to Saint Petersburg’s Nevsky Prospect can cost as little as 500 roubles (Dh30).
FANS WILL LOATHE
Uber policy in Russia is that they can start the fare as soon as they arrive at the pick-up point — and oftentimes they start it even before arriving, or worse never arrive yet charge you anyway.
FANS WILL LOVE
It’s amazing how active Russians are on social media and your accounts will surge should you post while in the country. Throw in a few Cyrillic hashtags and watch your account numbers rocket.
FANS WILL LOATHE
With cold soups, bland dumplings and dried fish, Russian cuisine is not to everybody’s tastebuds. Fortunately, there are plenty Georgian restaurants to choose from, which are both excellent and economical.
FANS WILL LOVE
The World Cup will take place during St Petersburg's White Nights Festival, which means perpetual daylight in a city that genuinely never sleeps. (Think toddlers walking the streets with their grandmothers at 4am.)
FANS WILL LOATHE
The walk from Krestovsky Ostrov metro station to Saint Petersburg Arena on a rainy day makes you wonder why some of the $1.7 billion was not spent on a weather-protected walkway.
Stree
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
