In the game of Jenga, players remove wooden blocks from a teetering tower, until the final misjudgment makes it collapse.
Global oil security appears solid enough today, but several bricks have gone, making it more vulnerable than it appears. Friday night’s lethal attack on a gas facility in Iraq’s Kurdistan region is another wobble in the edifice.
Since the 1973 oil embargo, the US, Europe and Japan have been intensely aware of threats to the flow of oil from the Middle East, the world’s key exporting region.
The outbreak of the Iranian Revolution and Iran-Iraq War in 1980-1988, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the Libyan uprising of 2011 all led to the disruption of supplies.
But the US, at least, has grown much more relaxed about its oil supplies, with the rise of shale production and its conversion from the world’s biggest oil importer to a significant exporter of oil and gas.
Last year saw unexpectedly strong growth in shale output, with further stepping up of Western Hemisphere output in Brazil and Guyana.
Opec spare capacity is also ample in aggregate – though nearly all concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq.
These developments have papered over rising vulnerabilities elsewhere. Energy security rests on diversity of supply sources and transit routes. Now the bricks are being pulled out, one by one.
First, the Iran-orchestrated drone and missile attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in September 2019, cutting up to 5.7 million barrels per day of production. Although the strike appeared designed not to cause permanent damage and operations were restored quite quickly, then US president Donald Trump said: “That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, that wasn’t an attack on us,” and the US ultimately did not respond.
Second, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022, followed by a European ban on importing its oil. This led Russian oil exports to reorient almost entirely to Turkey, India and China – the latter two usually requiring passage through the Suez Canal and Red Sea.
More recently, Ukraine has responded to Russian attacks on its cities and foot-dragging by its western supporters by striking most refineries in western Russia with drones. The latest case is the Slavyansk refinery in the Krasnodar region, which was set on fire on Saturday.
Third, the closure of the Iraq-Turkey pipeline in March 2023, following an arbitration judgment against Ankara over use of the line by Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region.
Although Turkey has consented to resume operations, a reopening now hangs on a knotty agreement between Kurdistan and the federal government in Baghdad.
The pipeline, with nominal capacity of up to 1.6 million bpd, and about 450,000 bpd of usable capacity in the short term, is Iraq’s only alternative to the Gulf for exports.
Fourth, the effective closure of the southern Red Sea to much marine traffic, following a series of attacks on shipping by Houthi forces in Yemen. Defensive measures and strikes on Houthi positions by American, British and other forces may have reduced the frequency of attacks, but sailors are still not keen to risk the passage.
On Thursday, a tanker carrying Russian oil to India was hit by a missile, though it was able to continue its journey after suffering minor damage. Europe is very reliant on Middle Eastern oil now, replacing previous Russian supplies, but much of this has to take the long route around the Cape of Good Hope rather than through Suez.
The fifth problem is half a world from the Middle East. US waivers for sanctions had led to a significant recovery in Venezuela’s output, which more than doubled from its nadir in mid-2020. But, growing frustrated with perceived intransigence from President Nicolás Maduro over holding fair elections in July, the US ended general sanctions exemptions this month.
Sixth comes Iran, never far from energy security worries, but brought back to prominence by Israel’s campaign in Gaza.
After the US, Iran has been the biggest contributor to global production growth, adding about 1.3 million bpd between late 2020 and this March. This was the result of better Iranian expertise in avoiding US sanctions, and slackened enforcement, as US President Joe Biden’s administration initially sought a resumption of talks. Then most of the US sanctions team turned their attention to Russia instead.
But after the tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel in recent weeks, the US imposed yet more sanctions on Tehran. Measures passed in the House of Representatives last week could expand restrictions to ports, ship, refineries and Chinese financial institutions dealing with Iranian oil, which could greatly escalate tensions with Beijing. Nevertheless, they may herald a return to intensive US efforts to cut back on Iran’s exports.
The perpetrators and motives for the explosion at Khor Mor are not clear. The interruption to its gas supplies mainly damages the Iraqi Kurdistan region. But it is a reminder that oil exports from Iraq, about 3.4 million bpd currently, are very vulnerable in the case of conflict.
A full-blown closure of the Strait of Hormuz, long the nightmare of energy security experts, still appears unlikely. Iran is as reliant on this narrow waterway as most of its neighbours. But in the event of deepening hostilities with Israel, particularly if the US became directly involved, more threat to shipping and energy infrastructure is likely. Or, Iran’s own oil facilities might be targeted. Tehran blamed two explosions on its gas pipelines in February on Israeli sabotage.
The proliferation of aerial – and marine – drones makes such a campaign more feasible than when Iran was reliant on speedboats, mines and inaccurate missiles. Saudi Arabia can use its east-west pipeline to divert some exports to the Red Sea, but the Houthi threat now makes it harder to access Asia from here.
Oil prices have not reacted much to these worries; they even fell after Iran’s drone and missile armada against Israel caused little damage.
It is indeed hard to trade a low-probability but high-consequence all-out war, although a few traders took a flutter on $250 per barrel options.
But after a string of geopolitical shocks, energy security is more fragile than a Brent crude price below $90 per barrel suggests.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Thor: Ragnarok
Dir: Taika Waititi
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Tom Hiddleston, Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, Mark Ruffalo, Tessa Thompson
Four stars
Your rights as an employee
The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.
The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.
If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.
Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.
The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
The Scale for Clinical Actionability of Molecular Targets
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Play-off fixtures
Two-legged ties to be played November 9-11 and November 12-14
- Northern Ireland v Switzerland
- Croatia v Greece
- Denmark v Ireland
- Sweden v Italy
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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Honeymoonish
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
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What is a calorie?
A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.
One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.
A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.
Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.
Alcohol contains about seven calories a gram.
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
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Bullet%20Train
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How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
If you go
The flights
The closest international airport for those travelling from the UAE is Denver, Colorado. British Airways (www.ba.com) flies from the UAE via London from Dh3,700 return, including taxes. From there, transfers can be arranged to the ranch or it’s a seven-hour drive. Alternatively, take an internal flight to the counties of Cody, Casper, or Billings
The stay
Red Reflet offers a series of packages, with prices varying depending on season. All meals and activities are included, with prices starting from US$2,218 (Dh7,150) per person for a minimum stay of three nights, including taxes. For more information, visit red-reflet-ranch.net.
Brief scores:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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