Oil prices rose on Friday on the back of heightened tension in the Middle East, amid fears that wider conflict would hinder output from the region.
However, a price drop is predicted over the next few weeks as fewer US interest rate cuts are expected this year.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, settled 0.71 per cent higher at $90.45 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, rose 0.64 per cent to settle at $85.66 a barrel.
On Thursday, Opec held firm to its forecasts for global oil demand and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, with expectations of “robust” summer months for the crude market.
The group has forecast oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day for this year and 1.8 million bpd for 2025, sticking to estimates it has made since February, Opec said in its latest monthly oil market report.
“Crude oil futures prices continued their upward trajectory in March, driven by increasingly positive sentiments regarding oil market fundamentals, amid an elevated risk premium,” the group said.
Opec projects the market to record strong activity during the summer months, underpinned by higher demand for transportation fuels and an overall healthy global economy, potentially supported by a more accommodative monetary stance by the US Federal Reserve in the third quarter.
This upbeat outlook, however, “warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance”, the Vienna-based group said.
Opec also stuck to its global economic growth projections of 2.8 per cent in 2024 and 2.9 per cent in 2025. It previously forecast “robust” expansion in economic activity in the second half of this year.
“Despite some downside risks, the continuation of the momentum seen in the beginning of the year could result in further upside potential for global economic growth in 2024,” Opec said.
“It is anticipated that domestic political and geopolitical developments will likely not significantly affect growth momentum.”
Growth in the US, the world's biggest economy and top consumer of crude, was slightly revised up to 2.1 per cent for 2024. Projections for the eurozone, Japan, China, India and Brazil were unchanged, while Russia's was upgraded on a stronger economy.
“There has been a significant decline in inflation across most major economies in recent months, although some have observed relatively sustained headline and core inflation figures in February and March,” Opec said.
“The response of central banks to this consistent inflationary trend in the coming months remains uncertain,” it added. The US Federal Reserve is expected to decide on interest rates in its June meeting.
Meanwhile, oil prices fell on Thursday, as investors braced for an escalation of diffused Middle East tensions following an Israeli air strike that killed relatives of the leader of Hamas and potential hostilities between Israel by Iran.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was down 0.42 per cent to $90.10 a barrel at 5:06pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading 0.65 per cent lower at $85.65 a barrel.
Crude began the day trading up and held steady near six-month highs before paring gains.
Both contracts gained more than 1 per cent at the end of Wednesday trading after an Israeli air strike killed a number of children and grandchildren of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel and Iran, meanwhile, have traded threats. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that his country will retaliate against Iranian territory if it is attacked.
Mr Katz made the public warning in posts on X directed at Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shortly after the Iranian leader said Israel was an “evil regime” that “must be punished” for a deadly attack on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus on April 1.
Oil prices started the week lower as talks between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza took place in Cairo, but they have hit a stalemate as Hamas has reportedly raised several objections to proposals.
Disagreements over the return of displaced Palestinians in Gaza and vague language on the absence of guarantees for a permanent ceasefire are stumbling blocks in the truce talks, sources told The National on Wednesday.
“The current geopolitical environment continues to provide support to oil prices,” analysts at Amsterdam-based ING Group wrote on Thursday.
The oil market also has to contend with two key data points from the US – inflation and crude stockpiles.
US inflation increased again last month, dampening hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June, and also signalling higher-for-longer rates in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 per cent in March, unchanged from its monthly gain in February, the Labour Department reported on Wednesday. But it rose on an annual basis at 3.5 per cent, a larger increase than the 3.2 per cent yearly rise in February.
Meanwhile, inventories of US crude, gasoline and distillates climbed last week on low crude exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
Crude inventories jumped by 5.8 million barrels to 457.3 million barrels in the week ended April 5, way above a Reuters poll of analyst expectations for a 2.4 million barrel increase, the Washington-based EIA said.
Oil prices recorded gains after the economic reports were published.
Investors will also be looking for clues from another report from the International Energy Agency due on Friday.
Opec+ made no policy changes following an online meeting last Wednesday, implying that voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day would remain in place until the end of June.
It also said it would continue to “closely assess” market conditions and that member countries were ready to take additional measures if required. A full ministerial gathering will be held in Vienna in June.
“We continue to anticipate that market conditions this summer will allow for some of the voluntary Opec production cuts to be unwound, but this should be a gradual process. Hence, we still look for a modest decline in prices toward the end of the year,” analysts at Swiss bank UBS said.
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
The biog
Favourite film: The Notebook
Favourite book: What I know for sure by Oprah Winfrey
Favourite quote: “Social equality is the only basis of human happiness” Nelson Madela. Hometown: Emmen, The Netherlands
Favourite activities: Walking on the beach, eating at restaurants and spending time with friends
Job: Founder and Managing Director of Mawaheb from Beautiful Peopl
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Shahi
Emirate: Sharjah – Khor Fakkan
Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
Favourite activities: Bungee jumping
Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match on BeIN Sports
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The%20specs
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Employment lawyer Meriel Schindler of Withers Worldwide shares her tips on achieving equal pay
Do your homework
Make sure that you are being offered a fair salary. There is lots of industry data available, and you can always talk to people who have come out of the organisation. Where I see people coming a cropper is where they haven’t done their homework.
Don’t be afraid to negotiate
It’s quite standard to negotiate if you think an offer is on the low side. The job is unlikely to be withdrawn if you ask for money, and if that did happen I’d question whether you want to work for an employer who is so hypersensitive.
Know your worth
Women tend to be a bit more reticent to talk about their achievements. In my experience they need to have more confidence in their own abilities – men will big up what they’ve done to get a pay rise, and to compete women need to turn up the volume.
Work together
If you suspect men in your organisation are being paid more, look your boss in the eye and say, “I want you to assure me that I’m paid equivalent to my peers”. If you’re not getting a straight answer, talk to your peer group and consider taking direct action to fix inequality.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Score
New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs
New Zealand win by 47 runs
New Zealand lead three-match ODI series 1-0
Next match: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, Friday
New schools in Dubai
Story%20behind%20the%20UAE%20flag
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Rocketman
Director: Dexter Fletcher
Starring: Taron Egerton, Richard Madden, Jamie Bell
Rating: 3 out of 5 stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The bio
Favourite food: Japanese
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Favourite hobby: Football
Favourite quote: If your dreams don’t scare you, they are not big enough
Favourite country: UAE
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
BELGIUM%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EGoalkeepers%3A%20Thibaut%20Courtois%2C%20Simon%20Mignolet%2C%20Koen%20Casteels%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EDefenders%3A%20Jan%20Vertonghen%2C%20Toby%20Alderweireld%2C%20Leander%20Dendoncker%2C%20Zeno%20Debast%2C%20Arthur%20Theate%2C%20Wout%20Faes%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMidfielders%3A%20Hans%20Vanaken%2C%20Axel%20Witsel%2C%20Youri%20Tielemans%2C%20Amadou%20Onana%2C%20Kevin%20De%20Bruyne%2C%20Yannick%20Carrasco%2C%20Thorgan%20Hazard%2C%20Timothy%20Castagne%2C%20Thomas%20Meunier%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EForwards%3A%20Romelu%20Lukaku%2C%20Michy%20Batshuayi%2C%20Lo%C3%AFs%20Openda%2C%20Charles%20De%20Ketelaere%2C%20Eden%20Hazard%2C%20Jeremy%20Doku%2C%20Dries%20Mertens%2C%20Leandro%20Trossard%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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