The International Energy Agency has revised down its prediction for oil demand growth this year, due to lower-than-expected consumption and a decline in industrial activity in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries.
Demand for 2024 was adjusted lower to 1.2 million barrels per day, about 100,000 bpd lower compared to last month's estimates, the Paris-based agency said in its April report on Friday.
The increase in oil demand “continues to lose momentum globally”, with the market recording a first-quarter growth of 1.6 million bpd, around 120,000 bpd below its previous forecast “due to exceptionally weak OECD deliveries”, it said.
The lower forecast is also expected to continue in 2025, with the demand growth next year projected to decelerate further to 1.1 million bpd, the IEA said.
“With the post-Covid rebound now largely complete, and vehicle efficiencies and an expanding EV [electric vehicle] fleet acting as further drags on oil demand, growth in 2024 and 2025 slows to 1.2 million bpd and 1.1 million bpd, respectively.”
Last month, the IEA raised its annual oil demand growth forecast, citing higher-than-expected crude consumption of 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter.
It expected oil demand to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2024, up from its previous estimate of about 1.2 million bpd, but significantly lower than the expansion of 2.3 million bpd seen last year.
In its latest report, non-OECD countries are projected to dominate the outlook, with forecast demand set to increase by 1.3 million bpd in 2024 and 1.2 million bpd in 2025, the agency said. By contrast, consumption in the OECD will decline by around 60,000 bpd in both years.
China will continue to lead non-OECD growth, “even as its share of the global increase slumps from 79 per cent in 2023 to 45 per cent in 2024 and 27 per cent next year”, the agency said.
On the other hand, the US – which along with China are the world's two biggest economies and consumers of crude – will drive supplies among non-Opec+ members, the IEA said.
“Sustained output curbs by the Opec+ alliance mean that non-Opec+ producers, led by the Americas, will continue to drive world oil supply growth through 2025,” the report said.
The IEA's forecast stands in stark contrast to Thursday's outlook report from Opec, which held firm to its forecasts for global oil demand and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, with expectations of “robust” summer months for the crude market.
The group had forecast oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day for this year and 1.8 million bpd for 2025, sticking to estimates it has made since February, Opec said in its latest monthly oil market report.
Benchmark crude oil prices continued their upward trajectory in March and early April, as heightened geopolitical tensions coincided with the prospect of a tighter supply-demand balance through the remainder of the year.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, hit a six-month high of $90 a barrel in early April amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Russian refineries and an extension of Opec+ outputs cuts through June.
Russian refinery outages added to product market unease, while Opec+ put pressure on some countries to increase compliance with agreed voluntary production cuts through the second quarter of this year, the agency said.
Brent was trading 2.03 per cent higher at $91.56 a barrel at 5.25pm UAE time on Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, rose 2.38 per cent at $87.04 a barrel.
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Premier League results
Saturday
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Arsenal 1
Bournemouth 0 Manchester City 1
Brighton & Hove Albion 1 Huddersfield Town 0
Burnley 1 Crystal Palace 3
Manchester United 3 Southampton 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 Cardiff City 0
West Ham United 2 Newcastle United 0
Sunday
Watford 2 Leicester City 1
Fulham 1 Chelsea 2
Everton 0 Liverpool 0
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
RESULTS
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UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Price: from Dh155,000
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to report a beggar
Abu Dhabi – Call 999 or 8002626 (Aman Service)
Dubai – Call 800243
Sharjah – Call 065632222
Ras Al Khaimah - Call 072053372
Ajman – Call 067401616
Umm Al Quwain – Call 999
Fujairah - Call 092051100 or 092224411
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
UAE v Zimbabwe A
Results
Match 1 – UAE won by 4 wickets
Match 2 – UAE won by 5 wickets
Match 3 – UAE won by 25 runs
Match 4 – UAE won by 77 runs
Fixture
Match 5, Saturday, 9.30am start, ICC Academy, Dubai
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Rub of Time: Bellow, Nabokov, Hitchens, Travolta, Trump and Other Pieces 1986-2016
Martin Amis,
Jonathan Cape
