Egypt’s Zohr gas discovery in 2015, with the apt meaning of “midday”, seemed to herald a sunny future for the country’s energy sector. But since then, a gloomy fog has descended, mingling war, economic malaise and the return of electricity and fuel shortages. Cairo received a big bailout in March – but without fixing its energy problems, the lights will go out again.
The pivotal North African state, with its population of about 110 million, has been badly hit by the past few years of global and regional crises. First it was the Covid pandemic, then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up wheat prices, damaging Egypt, a large importer of food.
Ethiopia’s dam on the Blue Nile is a source of tension with a big regional neighbour and heightens worries over Egypt’s water situation. The terrible civil war in Sudan further complicates any constructive approach to Addis Ababa.
Israel’s war against Gaza has driven away tourists. And the Houthi campaign against shipping in the Red Sea has caused Suez Canal revenue to dry up, down 40 per cent this year versus the same period in 2023.
Egypt’s immediate financial problems were eased over the last few weeks: ADQ of Abu Dhabi transferred $10 billion of a $35 billion investment deal for land at Ras El Hekma on the north coast; the EU provided a €7.4 billion ($8 billion) package of loans and grants; the World Bank said on 18 March it would disburse more than $6 billion over three years; and an $8 billion IMF loan was approved on Friday.
Cairo carried out some reforms in return; it floated the Egyptian pound, resulting in a 40 per cent devaluation, raised interest rates and increased prices for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.
Yet because of the decline in the currency, road fuel prices in dollar terms are still below those of early 2023, even though crude oil prices are now a little higher.
Egypt's major energy crisis remains the root cause ailing the country's ability to grow, with exceedingly high spending on imports, the North African country needs a more sustainable solution.
Outstanding bills
Money owed to oil companies operating in the country swelled to $6.25 billion at the end of last year. Without being paid, they cut back their investment budgets, leading to a fall in production, which in turn boosts the import bill and trade deficit. Egypt has now turned some of its cash influx to paying down these debts.
Gas from Zohr and the construction of massive new gas-fired power plants had helped end painful power cuts and stoppages of feedstock to industries. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which had dried up in 2015, resumed and 2021 and 2022 saw them boom, bringing in welcome revenue at a time of record international prices.
But this windfall seems over, as Zohr has run into trouble. Water influx into the reservoir has led production to stumble, and the field is producing about 2 billion cubic feet a day, well below intended capacity of 3.2 billion cubic feet.
There have been few significant discoveries since 2015, and low contractual prices for gas produced onshore has led drillers to prioritise oil.
LNG exports this year have almost dried up. Only a few cargoes will be exported, and in fact Egypt is now seeking to charter a floating regasification vessel to import LNG to cover summer gas shortages.
Politically and economically damaging hours-long blackouts returned last summer after they had been banished for several years.
The national gas balance is heavily reliant on imports from Israel, which sent record amounts last year despite a one-month stoppage for security concerns following the 7 October Hamas attack.
But pipeline constraints mean this capacity won’t increase until early next year at best, delayed more than a year after work was suspended during the war. The next major increment of export capacity would be mid-2027. And it is troubling to deepen dependence on Israel while it racks up the death toll in Gaza.
Instead, Egypt could import gas from Cyprus, where several significant offshore discoveries remain undeveloped. But plans to develop these via tie-backs to existing Egyptian infrastructure with spare capacity have stalled, after lengthy commercial disagreements between Nicosia and the companies involved.
The Ras El Hekma development is intended to be powered sustainably, mainly by the 4.8 gigawatt Dabaa nuclear power plant under construction by Russia’s Rosatom nearby.
This would be Egypt’s first nuclear generation and would save gas. It is intended to be completed between 2028 and 2030, but could still be delayed by sanctions on Russia or financing problems arising from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is meant to loan $25 billion of the cost and Cairo to chip in $5 billion.
What next?
So what are the solutions? Egypt may not be able to do much to resolve the conflicts in its neighbourhood. But it badly needs to rationalise energy use at home, while protecting the mass of lower-income citizens; limit its costly fuel imports which widen the trade deficit and pressure the currency; and preferably develop some more energy exports.
Targeting fuel and electricity subsidies better, or phasing them out in favour of direct cash payments to the poor, would help ease the subsidy burden.
Revising contracts with gas drillers to offer higher prices in return for progressively larger government shares of production would encourage domestic output. The next wave of Mediterranean exploration might yield more finds, if not as large as Zohr, but these won’t come online soon.
Egypt has excellent conditions for renewable energy, but has not made as much progress in recent years as it should. No new wind power at all was installed between 2020 and 2022, and only 247 megawatts last year; just 109 megawatts of solar were added between 2019 and 2023.
The country has a great opportunity to capitalise on European funds, reduce its domestic oil and gas consumption, and export major amounts of renewable electricity
Yet the country has a great opportunity to capitalise on European funds, reduce its domestic oil and gas consumption, and export major amounts of renewable electricity. Key parts of the EU package focus on renewables, hydrogen and electricity interconnection to the EU via the planned undersea “Gregy” (Greece-Egypt) cable.
The proposed EuroAfrica connector would run from Egypt to Cyprus, Crete and mainland Greece. Together these bidirectional links could carry six gigawatts.
Numerous hydrogen projects have also been proposed, mostly along the sunny, windy and logistically suited Gulf of Suez corridor, some involving Abu Dhabi clean energy company Masdar or Adnoc fertiliser subsidiary Fertiglobe.
But these have suffered from the general problem of hydrogen projects around the world, struggling to sign up customers willing to pay premia for green supply.
Egypt’s geopolitical importance, particularly as conflict envelopes so many of its neighbours, means it will always have powerful friends. Its geography and natural resources, both hydrocarbon and renewable, offer plenty to build on.
But instead of stumbling through the fog towards the next bailout, Cairo needs to hasten to a brighter energy and economic future.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
From exhibitions to the battlefield
In 2016, the Shaded Dome was awarded with the 'De Vernufteling' people's choice award, an annual prize by the Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers and the Royal Netherlands Society of Engineers for the most innovative project by a Dutch engineering firm.
It was assigned by the Dutch Ministry of Defence to modify the Shaded Dome to make it suitable for ballistic protection. Royal HaskoningDHV, one of the companies which designed the dome, is an independent international engineering and project management consultancy, leading the way in sustainable development and innovation.
It is driving positive change through innovation and technology, helping use resources more efficiently.
It aims to minimise the impact on the environment by leading by example in its projects in sustainable development and innovation, to become part of the solution to a more sustainable society now and into the future.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
T20 World Cup Qualifier, Muscat
UAE FIXTURES
Friday February 18: v Ireland
Saturday February 19: v Germany
Monday February 21: v Philippines
Tuesday February 22: semi-finals
Thursday February 24: final
Abu Dhabi card
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,400m
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 2,200m
6pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 1,400m
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
The National selections:
5pm: Valcartier
5.30pm: AF Taraha
6pm: Dhafra
6.30pm: Maqam
7pm: AF Mekhbat
7.30pm: Ezz Al Rawasi
Selected fixtures
All times UAE
Wednesday
Poland v Portugal 10.45pm
Russia v Sweden 10.45pm
Friday
Belgium v Switzerland 10.45pm
Croatia v England 10.45pm
Saturday
Netherlands v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Denmark 10.45pm
Sunday
Poland v Italy 10.45pm
Monday
Spain v England 10.45pm
Tuesday
France v Germany 10.45pm
Rep of Ireland v Wales 10.45pm
BAD%20BOYS%3A%20RIDE%20OR%20DIE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adil%20El%20Arbi%20and%20Bilall%20Fallah%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EWill%20Smith%2C%20Martin%20Lawrence%2C%20Joe%20Pantoliano%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
2pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,200m, Winner: Mouheeb, Tom Marquand (jockey), Nicholas Bachalard (trainer)
2.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Honourable Justice, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m, Winner: Dark Silver, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Dark Of Night. Antonio Fresu, Al Muhairi.
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Habah, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
Results
International 4, United States 1
Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods (US) beat Marc Leishman and Joaquin Niemann (International) 4 and 3.
Adam Hadwin and Sungjae Im (International) beat Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay (US) 2 up.
Adam Scott and Byeong Hun An (International) beat Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau (US) 2 and 1.
Hideki Matsuyama and C.T. Pan (International) beat Webb Simpson and Patrick Reed (US) 1 up.
Abraham Ancer and Louis Oosthuizen (International) beat Dustin Johnson and Gary Woodland (US) 4 and 3.
Why%20all%20the%20lefties%3F
%3Cp%3ESix%20of%20the%20eight%20fast%20bowlers%20used%20in%20the%20ILT20%20match%20between%20Desert%20Vipers%20and%20MI%20Emirates%20were%20left-handed.%20So%2075%20per%20cent%20of%20those%20involved.%0D%3Cbr%3EAnd%20that%20despite%20the%20fact%2010-12%20per%20cent%20of%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20population%20is%20said%20to%20be%20left-handed.%0D%3Cbr%3EIt%20is%20an%20extension%20of%20a%20trend%20which%20has%20seen%20left-arm%20pacers%20become%20highly%20valued%20%E2%80%93%20and%20over-represented%2C%20relative%20to%20other%20formats%20%E2%80%93%20in%20T20%20cricket.%0D%3Cbr%3EIt%20is%20all%20to%20do%20with%20the%20fact%20most%20batters%20are%20naturally%20attuned%20to%20the%20angles%20created%20by%20right-arm%20bowlers%2C%20given%20that%20is%20generally%20what%20they%20grow%20up%20facing%20more%20of.%0D%3Cbr%3EIn%20their%20book%2C%20%3Cem%3EHitting%20Against%20the%20Spin%3C%2Fem%3E%2C%20cricket%20data%20analysts%20Nathan%20Leamon%20and%20Ben%20Jones%20suggest%20the%20advantage%20for%20a%20left-arm%20pace%20bowler%20in%20T20%20is%20amplified%20because%20of%20the%20obligation%20on%20the%20batter%20to%20attack.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThe%20more%20attacking%20the%20batsman%2C%20the%20more%20reliant%20they%20are%20on%20anticipation%2C%E2%80%9D%20they%20write.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThis%20effectively%20increases%20the%20time%20pressure%20on%20the%20batsman%2C%20so%20increases%20the%20reliance%20on%20anticipation%2C%20and%20therefore%20increases%20the%20left-arm%20bowler%E2%80%99s%20advantage.%E2%80%9D%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Forced%20Deportations
%3Cp%3EWhile%20the%20Lebanese%20government%20has%20deported%20a%20number%20of%20refugees%20back%20to%20Syria%20since%202011%2C%20the%20latest%20round%20is%20the%20first%20en-mass%20campaign%20of%20its%20kind%2C%20say%20the%20Access%20Center%20for%20Human%20Rights%2C%20a%20non-governmental%20organization%20which%20monitors%20the%20conditions%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20in%20Lebanon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%9CIn%20the%20past%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20General%20Security%20was%20responsible%20for%20the%20forced%20deportation%20operations%20of%20refugees%2C%20after%20forcing%20them%20to%20sign%20papers%20stating%20that%20they%20wished%20to%20return%20to%20Syria%20of%20their%20own%20free%20will.%20Now%2C%20the%20Lebanese%20army%2C%20specifically%20military%20intelligence%2C%20is%20responsible%20for%20the%20security%20operation%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Mohammad%20Hasan%2C%20head%20of%20ACHR.%3Cbr%3EIn%20just%20the%20first%20four%20months%20of%202023%20the%20number%20of%20forced%20deportations%20is%20nearly%20double%20that%20of%20the%20entirety%20of%202022.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ESince%20the%20beginning%20of%202023%2C%20ACHR%20has%20reported%20407%20forced%20deportations%20%E2%80%93%20200%20of%20which%20occurred%20in%20April%20alone.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20comparison%2C%20just%20154%20people%20were%20forcfully%20deported%20in%202022.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Violence%20
%3Cp%3EInstances%20of%20violence%20against%20Syrian%20refugees%20are%20not%20uncommon.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJust%20last%20month%2C%20security%20camera%20footage%20of%20men%20violently%20attacking%20and%20stabbing%20an%20employee%20at%20a%20mini-market%20went%20viral.%20The%20store%E2%80%99s%20employees%20had%20engaged%20in%20a%20verbal%20altercation%20with%20the%20men%20who%20had%20come%20to%20enforce%20an%20order%20to%20shutter%20shops%2C%20following%20the%20announcement%20of%20a%20municipal%20curfew%20for%20Syrian%20refugees.%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CThey%20thought%20they%20were%20Syrian%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20the%20mayor%20of%20the%20Nahr%20el%20Bared%20municipality%2C%20Charbel%20Bou%20Raad%2C%20of%20the%20attackers.%3Cbr%3EIt%20later%20emerged%20the%20beaten%20employees%20were%20Lebanese.%20But%20the%20video%20was%20an%20exemplary%20instance%20of%20violence%20at%20a%20time%20when%20anti-Syrian%20rhetoric%20is%20particularly%20heated%20as%20Lebanese%20politicians%20call%20for%20the%20return%20of%20Syrian%20refugees%20to%20Syria.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2019 Audi A8
Price From Dh390,000
Engine 3.0L V6 turbo
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 345hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy, combined 7.5L / 100km
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
If you go
The flights
Etihad (etihad.com) flies from Abu Dhabi to Luang Prabang via Bangkok, with a return flight from Chiang Rai via Bangkok for about Dh3,000, including taxes. Emirates and Thai Airways cover the same route, also via Bangkok in both directions, from about Dh2,700.
The cruise
The Gypsy by Mekong Kingdoms has two cruising options: a three-night, four-day trip upstream cruise or a two-night, three-day downstream journey, from US$5,940 (Dh21,814), including meals, selected drinks, excursions and transfers.
The hotels
Accommodation is available in Luang Prabang at the Avani, from $290 (Dh1,065) per night, and at Anantara Golden Triangle Elephant Camp and Resort from $1,080 (Dh3,967) per night, including meals, an activity and transfers.
The Vines - In Miracle Land
Two stars
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
