The energy transition is “visibly failing”, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser last week told CeraWeek, the annual energy jamboree in Houston.
However, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, responded in the Financial Times saying, “technologies like solar, wind and electric cars are increasingly replacing the need for fossil fuels and reining in emissions”. So who is right?
The online discussion of CeraWeek was undoubtedly dominated by natural gas, but the other three main topics of conversation were energy transition, renewables and hydrogen.
The heads of the US Senate and House of Representatives energy committees, both Republicans, weighed in, sending Dr Birol a letter accusing the IEA of having become an energy transition “cheerleader” to the detriment of its original goal of assuring energy security.
Mr Nasser predicted that a peak in oil demand was unlikely “for some time to come”, and certainly not by 2030. Vitol, one of the world’s largest oil traders, has pushed its expectation for the date of peak oil back to the early 2030s.
Somewhat contrastingly, the president of Sinopec, China’s second-largest state oil corporation, told the conference he expects oil consumption in China, behind only the US in volume, to peak in 2026 and fall slightly to 2030. He envisaged Chinese gas demand, however, rising until 2040.
Economic growth this year is below its long-term trend, yet oil demand is above-trend – possibly well above if Opec’s forecasts are correct. It will hit another all-time record this year, and even the use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is also likely to rise again after stimulus measures in China.
The US administration on Tuesday eased proposed rules driving the adoption of electric vehicles, to favour Detroit car makers with a poor record on fuel economy.
Yet Dr Birol points out that “China … installed as much solar capacity in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022” and that electric vehicles “are now at the heart of most automakers’ strategies for the future”.
How do we reconcile these conflicting perspectives?
First, it depends on our definition of “energy transition”. Is it the point when new energy technologies become generally superior in cost and performance to legacy ones? That point has arrived in several cases.
Is it the stage when the bulk of energy demand is satisfied by these new technologies? That is still far-off. Or is it when the world’s energy system as a whole is on-track to limit global warming adequately? That achievement looks increasingly out of reach.
Second, the impact of a transition is felt at the margin, but the effect on overall energy use, emissions and heating of the climate comes only in the aggregate. Mr Nasser notes that less than 4 per cent of global energy comes from wind and solar combined, and less than 3 per cent of the vehicle fleet is electric.
Yet about 87 per cent of new power generation installed last year was renewable, according to the Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Agency. Global sales of EVs rose almost 30 per cent and accounted for nearly 16 per cent of all light vehicles sold. However, a typical coal power plant could operate for 40 years or more and an average car stays on the road for more than ten years. A transition takes a long time.
Third, as American sci-fi author William Gibson said: “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed”. Finland’s energy is 27 per cent non-hydroelectric renewables, while next door Russia's is 0.3 per cent. Renewable deployment, and availability of electricity in general, in Africa is dismal despite the continent’s great resources and needs.
Solar power and batteries had a tremendous 2023. Offshore wind, EVs and heat pumps encountered some challenges, while carbon capture, hydrogen, nuclear power, green steel and electricity transmission remain far short of where they need to be to solve crucial parts of the climate challenge.
So the question of whether the “energy transition” is visibly failing or succeeding is meaningless. It isn’t a single thing. The energy system is indeed undergoing an enormous transformation, driven in different ways by climate concerns, energy security policies, promotion of industrialisation and technological development, and by superior economics and performance.
But demand for coal, oil and especially gas remains very strong. New technology can cut both ways: artificial intelligence is now expected to drive a surprise boom in electricity consumption. Players in traditional energy systems may have years or decades of very profitable operations ahead of them, even if their pie shrinks eventually.
They would be foolish to ignore the impact of transition. But the timing and nature of its effect will be very different depending on where and in what they operate. A legacy car maker trying to compete with Tesla or BYD, or a maker of gas boilers, is in a different situation from an owner of a gas-fired power plant who might do well for years balancing out variations in solar and wind, or an operator of a long-lived, low-cost oilfield.
Policymakers need to look beyond the self-interested claims of those both in traditional and new energy industries. The traditional energy industry concentrates too much on things as they are, not seeing how they could be, or indeed must be, for the sake of a liveable climate. New energy advocates focus too much on how they want things to be, not as the constraints of reality dictate.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
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About Proto21
Date started: May 2018
Founder: Pir Arkam
Based: Dubai
Sector: Additive manufacturing (aka, 3D printing)
Staff: 18
Funding: Invested, supported and partnered by Joseph Group
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
RESULTS
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
The five pillars of Islam
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
