The debate over peak oil demand was back in focus on Tuesday, with the head of the International Energy Agency saying that some oil and gas companies agreed with its prediction that global consumption would hit a plateau before 2030.
The rising share of solar and wind in electricity generation, growing electric vehicle sales and economic development in key emerging nations will lead to that conclusion, Fatih Birol told the IEA Energy Innovation Forum in Paris.
However, Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais told the World Governments Summit in Dubai on Tuesday that peak oil demand was “something way far out” but declined to provide a timeline.
It's not easy to definitively state when this peak would happen, whether it's “tomorrow, in five years, or in 10 years”, Mr Al Ghais said. “Nobody has a crystal ball.”
The Opec chief stated that the group bases its estimates on “raw data” and is not influenced by “ideological concepts”.
“We take the approach that all forms of energy will be required. No single source of energy will be able to replace another … oil today represents over 30 per cent of the global energy mix,” Mr Al Ghais said.
Opec and the IEA have been increasingly at odds regarding their differing assumptions concerning peak oil and scenarios for demand growth.
Last year, the group of oil-producing countries raised its long-term crude demand forecast to 116 million barrels per day by 2045, an increase of 6 million bpd from its previous estimate.
This year, Opec expects demand to grow by more than 2 million bpd, Mr Al Ghais said, adding that he was encouraged by upward gross domestic product estimate revisions in some countries.
“Although there are question marks … we still feel very robust about China, and we are seeing the Chinese government stepping in to take corrective measures,” Mr Al Ghais said.
“All of this with … [along with] the phenomenal economic growth we're seeing in India leads us to believe that we will have a strong economy this year with positive implications for oil demand.”
India, the world’s most populous nation, is expected to be the largest source of oil demand growth between now and 2030, according to the IEA.
Elections in focus
The transition towards cleaner forms of energy is already under way and is unlikely to be significantly altered by policy changes resulting from events like elections in some countries, energy officials said.
In Paris, Mr Birol reiterated the IEA’s forecast that global oil demand will hit a plateau before the end of this decade. adding: “I am very happy to see that several others, including some oil and gas companies, are agreeing with this statement.”
Clean energy and innovative technologies aimed at lowering carbon emissions are moving in the “right direction”, driven by industrial policies and falling costs, not environmental regulations alone, he said.
“What happens if one or two or three or five countries change this policy direction? Are we going to see a stop or slowdown or going back?” he said.
“My answer is absolutely not.”
Mr Birol also emphasised the need for innovation in existing clean energy technology.
“We are seeing some bright spots in technologies such as lithium-ion batteries,” he said.
“[However], if you ask us if innovation is going as fast as we would like to see, the answer is not necessarily.”
The IEA expects renewable energy to make up more than one third of total electricity generation by early 2025, overtaking coal.
The “massive expansion” in renewable energy such as solar, wind and electric vehicles is “not enough” to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, Mr Birol said, while urging countries to also back clean technologies that are still in a nascent phase.
More than 50 countries are going to the polls in the next 10 months for presidential and legislative elections.
Most notably, elections will be held in India and the US, the world's biggest economy.
In the US, former president Donald Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination for the White House. He has promised to prioritise boosting US oil and gas production if elected.
John Kerry, President Joe Biden's special envoy for climate, said the global marketplace had made its decision about the energy transition.
“No individual politician, no finance minister, no prime minister, no monarch can change the course the world is on. This transition has to happen,” Mr Kerry said at the IEA event.
He also took an aim at China’s continued use of coal despite being the fastest growing market for renewable energy.
If China, the world’s second-largest economy, successfully builds planned renewable energy projects and manages them using advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, it could significantly reduce the need for new coal-fired power plants, Mr Kerry said.
The rate of expansion of global renewable energy capacity surged by 50 per cent in 2023, with solar accounting for three-quarters of the growth, according to the IEA.
China recorded the largest growth, with wind power additions rising 65 per cent year-on-year. However, coal still makes up about 56 per cent of the country’s total energy consumption.
At the 2021 UN General Assembly, President Xi Jinping pledged that China would increase its support for low-carbon energy in developing countries, and not build new coal-fired power projects overseas.
On Tuesday, Mr Kerry called it a “step forward” but said enforcing China's commitment had “proven to be complicated”.
“We still [see] most of the coal-fired power coming online in South-east and East Asia,” he added.
RESULT
Al Hilal 4 Persepolis 0
Khribin (31', 54', 89'), Al Shahrani 40'
Red card: Otayf (Al Hilal, 49')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sanju
Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani
Rating: 3.5 stars
More on Quran memorisation:
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Donating your hair
• Your hair should be least 30 cms long, as some of the hair is lost during manufacturing of the wigs.
• Clean, dry hair in good condition (no split ends) from any gender, and of any natural colour, is required.
• Straight, wavy, curly, permed or chemically straightened is permitted.
• Dyed hair must be of a natural colour
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
MATCH INFO
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Namibia beat Oman by 52 runs
UAE beat Namibia by eight wickets
UAE v Oman - abandoned
Oman v Namibia - abandoned
More on Quran memorisation:
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on animal trafficking
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Mission%3A%20Impossible%20-%20Dead%20Reckoning%20Part%20One
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Christopher%20McQuarrie%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tom%20Cruise%2C%20Hayley%20Atwell%2C%20Pom%20Klementieff%2C%20Simon%20Pegg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
1.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner AF Almomayaz, Hugo Lebouc (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)
2pm Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner Karaginsky, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
2.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Sadeedd, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard.
3pm Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner Blue Sovereign, Clement Lecoeuvre, Erwan Charpy.
3.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
4pm Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner Bladesmith, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Omar%20Hilal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Muhammad%20Farrag%2C%20Bayoumi%20Fouad%2C%20Nelly%20Karim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
More coverage from the Future Forum
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%20Twin-turbocharged%204-litre%20V8%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20625%20bhp%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20630Nm%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Now%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh974%2C011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The biog:
Favourite book: The Leader Who Had No Title by Robin Sharma
Pet Peeve: Racism
Proudest moment: Graduating from Sorbonne
What puts her off: Dishonesty in all its forms
Happiest period in her life: The beginning of her 30s
Favourite movie: "I have two. The Pursuit of Happiness and Homeless to Harvard"
Role model: Everyone. A child can be my role model
Slogan: The queen of peace, love and positive energy
