UBS does not expect Brent crude to move above $100 a barrel on a “sustained basis” as it would lead to higher US crude supply.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, is forecast to trade in the range of $90 to $100 a barrel over the coming months, before ending the year at $95, the Swiss lender said in a research note on Tuesday.
Brent was trading 0.65 per cent lower at $93.73 a barrel at 3.27pm UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 0.61 per cent at $90.64 a barrel.
Oil prices have gained about 30 per cent since falling to a low of $71.84 in June, with the International Energy Agency predicting a tighter-than-anticipated crude market on Opec+ cuts as China, the world’s second-largest economy, introduces efforts to revive growth.
“The price increase has been driven by a tightening of oil fundamentals, with oil demand rising to record levels and lower supply from Saudi Arabia and the other Opec+ member states,” UBS strategists said.
“As a result, visible oil inventories saw a large drop in August, and financial investors have added exposure to crude oil.”
On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said the Opec+ was not aiming for price control through its output cuts, but less volatility in the market.
The group wants to be “proactive” and “pre-emptive”, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, adding that there was continuing uncertainty regarding Chinese demand, European economic growth, and interest rate actions.
The minister’s comments suggest that Saudi Arabia will only increase crude supplies “when it believes the oil market is sufficiently stable to warrant this move, including when global oil inventories are lower than at present”, UBS said.
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its 12-month Brent forecast to $100 a barrel from $93 and said that the benchmark was “unlikely” to sustainably exceed $105 next year.
“The key reason is that significantly lower Opec+ supply and higher demand more than offset significantly higher US supply,” the US investment bank said.
Goldman Sachs also expects Saudi Arabia to unwind its voluntary production cut of one million barrels per day from the second quarter of 2024.
However, the bank lowered its Opec supply forecast for next year by 900,000 bpd, citing the kingdom’s determination to lower crude inventories and supply cuts.
“We also believe that Brent is unlikely to sustainably drop below $80 a barrel next year because of the strong Opec put. Moreover, western energy policy now has less room left to fight high prices given declines in the SPR [strategic petroleum reserve] and in Iran spare capacity,” Goldman Sachs said.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause interest rate increases at its meeting on Wednesday, despite persistent inflation in the world’s largest economy.
“The risks for headline inflation to heat up over the next couple of months are rising and that should complicate what the Fed does,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
“If core inflation shows it is struggling to continue to drop, the higher-for-longer rate regime will last a lot longer than the market is pricing in.”
After pausing its tightening cycle in June, the Fed increased its policy rate in July for the 11th time since March 2022, as it aims to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent target range.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned that the central bank may not be finished with raising interest rates, saying that more proof is needed to slow a cooling economy.
Higher interest rates dampen economic growth, lowering crude demand.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Tuesday raised its forecast for global gross domestic product growth this year to 3 per cent, from 2.7 per cent.
However, GDP growth rate projection for 2024 was lowered to 2.7 per cent from a previous estimate of 2.9 per cent on weak Chinese economic activity and the impact of higher interest rates.
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
Muguruza's singles career in stats
WTA titles 3
Prize money US$11,128,219 (Dh40,873,133.82)
Wins / losses 293 / 149
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Trippier bio
Date of birth September 19, 1990
Place of birth Bury, United Kingdom
Age 26
Height 1.74 metres
Nationality England
Position Right-back
Foot Right
Results:
Men’s wheelchair 200m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 27.14; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 27.81; 3. Rheed McCracken (AUS) 27.81.
CHELSEA'S NEXT FIVE GAMES
Mar 10: Norwich(A)
Mar 13: Newcastle(H)
Mar 16: Lille(A)
Mar 19: Middlesbrough(A)
Apr 2: Brentford(H)
Sri Lanka squad
Dinesh Chandimal, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Lahiru Thirimanne, Niroshan Dickwella, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Rangana Herath, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Lakshan Sandakan, Vishwa Fernando, Lahiru Kumara, Jeffrey Vandersay, Milinda Siriwardana, Roshen Silva, Akila Dananjaya, Charith Asalanka, Shaminda Eranga and Dhammika Prasad.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
