The International Energy Agency expects a “substantial” crude market deficit in the fourth quarter of this year due to Opec+ output cuts.
Global oil demand remains “on track” to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day to 101.8 million bpd this year, driven by a recovery in fuel demand in China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
“From September onwards, the loss of Opec+ production, led by Saudi Arabia, will drive a significant supply shortfall through the fourth quarter,” the agency said.
“Unwinding cuts at the start of 2024 would shift the balance to a surplus. However, oil stocks will be at uncomfortably low levels, increasing the risk of another surge in volatility that would be in the interest of neither producers nor consumers.”
Oil prices have been rising since Opec+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million bpd to the end of the year.
As part of their voluntary cuts, the kingdom is extending its million bpd output reduction until December while Russia is rolling over its export cut of 300,000 bpd until the end of the year.
The agency expects global oil demand to rise by 1.5 million bpd in the second half of this year, compared with the first half, exceeding supply by 1.24 million bpd during that period.
Despite sluggish economic growth, China is still on track to account for 75 per cent of the global crude demand growth this year, the agency said.
The Asian country's post-coronavirus economic recovery has lost momentum mainly due to a deepening property slump and weak consumer spending.
China has announced a string of stimulus measures over the past few weeks to revive economic growth, including halving the stamp duty on stock transactions and easing mortgage rates.
The agency has forecast a “sharp” slowdown in oil demand growth to about 1 million bpd in 2024 as the post-pandemic recovery loses steam and electric vehicle adoption grows.
So far, Opec+ supply has fallen by two million bpd in 2023, with overall losses offset by “sharply higher” crude flows from Iran, the IEA said.
Meanwhile, non-Opec+ supply rose by 1.9 million bpd to a record 50.5 million bpd by August, the agency said.
“Output curbs by Opec+ members of more than 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2023 have, so far, been offset by higher supplies from producers outside the alliance,” the IEA said.
Russian oil export revenue surged by $1.8 billion to $17.1 billion last month as higher prices more than offset lower shipments, the agency said.
However, Moscow's oil exports eased by 150,000 bpd in August to 7.2 million bpd. Shipments to China and India slumped in April and May but accounted for more than half the total volumes, the agency said.
Global crude stocks plummeted by 76.3 million bpd to a 13-month low in August, led by a hefty decline in shipped oil, the IEA said.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.78 per cent higher at $92.78 a barrel at 12.37pm UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 0.84 per cent at $89.59 a barrel.
In its monthly oil market report on Tuesday, Opec said it expected a supply shortfall of 3.3 million bpd over the next three months.
The group also stuck to its oil demand outlook for this year and the next, and said China’s recent stimulus measures would help to revive economic growth.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Day 1, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.
Stat of the day - 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.
The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227 for four at the close.
Charlotte Gainsbourg
Rest
(Because Music)
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Ronaldo's record at Man Utd
Seasons 2003/04 - 2008/09
Appearances 230
Goals 115
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Key features of new policy
Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6
Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge
A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools
Schools to implement online system to encouraging transparency and accountability
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16. first leg
Atletico Madrid v Juventus, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
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yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
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What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
RESULT
Australia 3 (0) Honduras 1 (0)
Australia: Jedinak (53', 72' pen, 85' pen)
Honduras: Elis (90 4)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES
Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)
Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)
Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
