Opec has maintained its outlook for oil demand this year and expects healthy oil fundamentals in the second half as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
“Prospects for healthy oil fundamentals in the second half of the year, along with the pre-emptive, proactive and precautious approach of Opec and non-Opec producing countries to assess market conditions and take necessary measures at any time and as needed, will ensure stability of the global oil market,” Opec said.
Earlier this month, the Opec+ alliance of 23 oil-producing countries agreed to stick to its current output policy, as the group’s production cuts tightened supply and pushed oil prices higher.
The decision came a day after Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, said it would extend its voluntary oil production cut of one million bpd until September.
Oil prices recorded their biggest monthly gain since early 2022 in July amid falling crude inventories and Opec+ supply cuts, as cooling inflation eases concerns of aggressive interest rate increases by central banks.
In the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) region, oil demand in 2023 is forecast to rise by 74,000 bpd to an average of 46 million bpd, it said in the report.
OECD Americas’ demand is predicted to have the largest regional rise in 2023, led by the US, on the back of recovering jet fuel demand and improvements in gasoline requirements.
In the non-OECD region, total oil demand is expected to rise by nearly 2.4 million bpd to an average of 56 million bpd in 2023.
A steady increase in transportation and industrial fuel demand, supported by a recovery in activity in China, the world’s second-largest economy and other non-OECD regions, is projected to boost demand in 2023.
In 2024, “solid global economic growth” amid continued improvements in China is expected to boost the consumption of oil.
World oil demand is anticipated to rise by 2.2 million bpd year-on-year, unchanged from the previous assessment, with total world oil demand projected to average 104.3 million bpd.
The non-OECD is set to drive growth, increasing by around 2 million bpd, with China, the Middle East and Other Asia contributing the largest share, with further support from India, Latin America, and Africa.
“China and India are anticipated to see the largest growth by country. Other regions, particularly the Middle East and Other Asia, are also expected to see considerable gains, supported by a positive economic outlook,” Opec said in the report.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund revised its earlier forecast for this year upwards, raising it by 0.2 percentage points to 3 per cent, although lower than the 3.5 per cent expansion recorded in 2022. It is projecting a similar pace of growth in 2024.
Despite the positive developments, “many challenges still cloud the horizon, and it is too early to celebrate”, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its Brent forecast of $86 a barrel by December and expects prices to rise to $93 in the second quarter of 2024. The investment bank also raised its 2023 oil demand estimate by 550,000 bpd.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.45 per cent lower at $87.13 a barrel at 5.31pm UAE time on Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 0.70 per cent at $83.81 a barrel.
Production from Opec members declined by 836,000 barrels a day in July amid production cuts by Saudi Arabia and other member countries, data from the latest report shows.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), EsekaiaDranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), JaenBotes (Exiles), KristianStinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), EmosiVacanau (Harlequins), NikoVolavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), ThinusSteyn (Exiles)
Key findings of Jenkins report
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
UAE's role in anti-extremism recognised
General John Allen, President of the Brookings Institution research group, commended the role the UAE has played in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism.
He told a Globsec debate of the UAE’s "hugely outsized" role in the fight against Isis.
"It’s trite these days to say that any country punches above its weight, but in every possible way the Emirates did, both militarily, and very importantly, the UAE was extraordinarily helpful on getting to the issue of violent extremism," he said.
He also noted the impact that Hedayah, among others in the UAE, has played in addressing violent extremism.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final, first leg:
Liverpool 5
Salah (35', 45 1'), Mane (56'), Firmino (61', 68')
Roma 2
Dzeko (81'), Perotti (85' pen)
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Scoreline
Switzerland 5
Volunteers offer workers a lifeline
Community volunteers have swung into action delivering food packages and toiletries to the men.
When provisions are distributed, the men line up in long queues for packets of rice, flour, sugar, salt, pulses, milk, biscuits, shaving kits, soap and telecom cards.
Volunteers from St Mary’s Catholic Church said some workers came to the church to pray for their families and ask for assistance.
Boxes packed with essential food items were distributed to workers in the Dubai Investments Park and Ras Al Khaimah camps last week. Workers at the Sonapur camp asked for Dh1,600 towards their gas bill.
“Especially in this year of tolerance we consider ourselves privileged to be able to lend a helping hand to our needy brothers in the Actco camp," Father Lennie Connully, parish priest of St Mary’s.
Workers spoke of their helplessness, seeing children’s marriages cancelled because of lack of money going home. Others told of their misery of being unable to return home when a parent died.
“More than daily food, they are worried about not sending money home for their family,” said Kusum Dutta, a volunteer who works with the Indian consulate.
