Europe and the US face a “lower” risk of a recession than previously expected, thanks to policies that promote industrial growth, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank has said.
This is expected to help in allaying some of the worst fears in the oil market, Ole Hansen told The National in an interview, adding that “part of that fear has been adding to some selling in the market”.
Traders in the market are not being driven by the balance between supply and demand but by macroeconomic factors, he said.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, is down by about 13 per cent since the beginning of the year as growing concerns about the global economy weigh on the outlook for crude demand.
However, the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and similar policies in the EU will underpin economic growth in those countries, Mr Hansen said.
“We are increasingly doubting that the recession really will strike, both in the US and Europe. There are simply too many handouts still going on [and] too many projects [on] the industrial front.”
The IRA, enacted last year, offers a series of tax incentives on wind, solar, hydropower and other renewables, as well as a push towards electric vehicle ownership.
It is expected to spur about $3 trillion of investment in renewable energy technology, according to Goldman Sachs.
The REPowerEU Plan proposed by the European Commission seeks to increase the share of renewables in the EU’s energy mix to 45 per cent by 2030. This is up from the bloc’s current target of 40 per cent.
The world economy is set to grow at a slower pace as continued monetary policy tightening to rein in inflation is expected to crimp development, the World Bank said earlier this month.
Growth has been forecast at 2.1 per cent this year, down from 3.1 per cent last year, before recovering to 2.4 per cent in 2024, the Washington-based lender said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
“Right now, the market needs growth more than [it needs] to worry about prices because we have gotten used to the prices and it’s not as if we are seeing inflation starting to pick up again,” Mr Hansen said.
“But [prices] will struggle to come back down to the levels we have seen in the past and which [are] being projected by the central banks.”
The main question is if central banks will adjust their long-term inflationary forecasts, said Mr Hansen, adding that 2 per cent inflation target would come at the cost of economic growth.
“They'll have to … kill economic growth in order to achieve that.”
Higher interest rates could slow the global economy and dampen crude demand. The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a combined 500 basis points since March 2022.
However, strong crude demand, particularly from China, could push Brent back to the $80 a barrel level, Mr Hansen said.
“It's a patience game right now … the focus on stimulus from China has not really come to fruition,” he said.
“We've seen a few rate cuts but has not really been enough to support the market at this point.”
China’s economy, which rebounded after Covid-19 restrictions were lifted at the start of the year, lost momentum in May, posting weaker retail sales and manufacturing output while registering a slowdown in the property sector.
The world’s largest crude importer recently cut two market-based benchmark lending rates, but the loosening of its monetary policy was less aggressive than what some analysts expected.
Potential measures should stimulate growth and create a change in sentiment “because it seems like the Chinese economy is sputtering … and that potentially is filtering through to consumers in the country”, Mr Hansen said.
The International Energy Agency and Opec expect the oil market to tighten in the second half of the year amid Opec+ cuts and a rebound in Chinese crude demand.
However, resilient Russian crude supply and rising output in countries under sanctions such as Iran and Venezuela could potentially result in a smaller deficit in 2023, analysts have said.
Several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, MUFG and UBS, have slashed their short-term oil price forecasts over the past few weeks, citing higher-than-expected crude supply in the market.
“The bulk of that [oil demand] increase is projected to start in the third quarter, and that obviously [has created] a lot of nervousness in the market about whether that's going to happen or not,” Mr Hansen said.
“If we don’t see a continued increase in demand, then we have a market that will be challenged and that’s probably one reason why … Opec+ and Saudi Arabia stepped in just trying to meet that risk head on,” he said.
On June 4, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, announced that it would cut its July output by a million barrels per day and said this could be extended depending on market conditions.
Meanwhile, the Opec+ alliance will stick with its voluntary output cuts until the end of next year.
“My overall take is based on the [assumption] that the Opec+ has created a soft floor under the market [and] there is a fear of selling it aggressively lower simply for risk of additional cuts being implemented,” Mr Hansen said.
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Freezer tips
- Always make sure food is completely cool before freezing.
- If you’re cooking in large batches, divide into either family-sized or individual portions to freeze.
- Ensure the food is well wrapped in foil or cling film. Even better, store in fully sealable, labelled containers or zip-lock freezer bags.
- The easiest and safest way to defrost items such as the stews and sauces mentioned is to do so in the fridge for several hours or overnight.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Disturbing%20facts%20and%20figures
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E51%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20in%20the%20UAE%20feel%20like%20they%20are%20failing%20within%20the%20first%20year%20of%20parenthood%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E57%25%20vs%2043%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20is%20the%20number%20of%20mothers%20versus%20the%20number%20of%20fathers%20who%20feel%20they%E2%80%99re%20failing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E28%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20believe%20social%20media%20adds%20to%20the%20pressure%20they%20feel%20to%20be%20perfect%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E55%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20cannot%20relate%20to%20parenting%20images%20on%20social%20media%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E67%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20wish%20there%20were%20more%20honest%20representations%20of%20parenting%20on%20social%20media%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E53%25%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20of%20parents%20admit%20they%20put%20on%20a%20brave%20face%20rather%20than%20being%20honest%20due%20to%20fear%20of%20judgment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cspan%20style%3D%22font-size%3A%2014px%3B%22%3ESource%3A%20YouGov%3C%2Fspan%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
FA Cup final
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Biog
Age: 50
Known as the UAE’s strongest man
Favourite dish: “Everything and sea food”
Hobbies: Drawing, basketball and poetry
Favourite car: Any classic car
Favourite superhero: The Hulk original
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,200
Winner: Miqyaas, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Rashed Bouresly (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Untold Secret, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Shanty Star, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Alkaamel, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Speedy Move, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap Dh175,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Quartier Francois, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
New Zealand 15
Tries: Laumape, J Barrett
Conversions: B Barrett
Penalties: B Barrett
British & Irish Lions 15
Penalties: Farrell (4), Daly
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
