UBS has lowered its Brent oil price forecast by $10 to $95 a barrel for the end of 2023, citing higher-than-expected supply and recession fears.
The Swiss lender had previously forecast Brent crude, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, at $105 a barrel for the year-end.
“Many market participants had a positive price outlook at the start of this year, but investors have avoided the underlying recession fears in the US and, more recently, weak economic data out of China,” UBS strategists said in a research note on Wednesday.
Brent has lost nearly 13 per cent of its value since the beginning of the year amid demand concerns and a regional banking crisis in the US, which rattled financial markets.
The international benchmark was trading 0.09 per cent lower at $74.80 a barrel at 1.17pm UAE time on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for US crude, was down 0.25 per cent at $70.68 a barrel.
However, UBS expects larger crude inventory draws in the coming months, supported by Opec+ cuts and higher fuel demand as the summer kicks in.
Last month, Opec+ members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria announced voluntary output cuts of 1.16 million bpd.
The cuts, which will be in place from May until the end of the year, are aimed at ensuring oil market stability, the producers said at the time.
The UBS note comes a day after the International Energy Agency raised its 2023 global oil demand estimates again on China demand recovery and said the current pessimism in the market was in “stark contrast” to the agency’s expectations of a tighter market in the second half of the year.
The agency now expects global crude demand to rise by 2.2 million bpd in 2023, an increase of 200,000 bpd from its April forecast.
UBS said it expects crude demand to average 101 million bpd this year, lower than the IEA’s estimate of 102 million bpd.
The Swiss lender also said the oil market will be undersupplied by 1.5 million bpd in June.
“Against this backdrop, we think investors will return to the oil market as larger inventory draws become visible, thus supporting prices. So, we retain a positive price outlook,” UBS said.
Russian oil production is projected to stay at about 9.6 million bpd this year and not fall to 9 million bpd, UBS said.
Russian oil exports hit 8.3 million bpd in April, the highest since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last year, according to the IEA.
“By our estimates, Moscow did not deliver its announced 500,000 bpd supply cut in full. Indeed, Russia may be boosting volumes to make up for lost revenue,” the agency said.
The country’s oil export revenue rose by $1.7 billion to $15 billion in April but was down 27 per cent from a year earlier, the IEA said.
Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its 2023 Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel from $90 and $100 in 2024 compared with a prior $97 forecast following the announcement of voluntary output cuts by Opec+ members.
The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
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Developer: Ubisoft Montreal / Ubisoft Toronto
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platforms: Playstation 4, Xbox One, Windows
Release Date: April 10
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
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Paltan
Producer: JP Films, Zee Studios
Director: JP Dutta
Cast: Jackie Shroff, Sonu Sood, Arjun Rampal, Siddhanth Kapoor, Luv Sinha and Harshvardhan Rane
Rating: 2/5
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
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Neighbourhood Watch
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
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Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
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Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
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THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
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PETER%20PAN%20%26%20WENDY
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