Oil prices fluctuated on Thursday after dropping nearly 9 per cent over the past three days as a regional banking crisis in the US rattled markets and raised concerns about a recession, which could lower crude demand.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.94 per cent higher at $73.01 a barrel at 9.52pm UAE time on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 0.71 per cent at $69.09 a barrel.
Brent settled 3.97 per cent lower at $72.33, while WTI fell by 4.27 per cent to $68.60 at market close on Wednesday.
"Bearish macro angst is trumping bullish micro fundamentals, with WTI crude oil plunging below its key resistance level of $70 a barrel," said Ehsan Khoman, head of emerging markets research for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at MUFG Bank.
"There is little in the way of fresh fundamentals to justify the sell-off, though investors seem to be getting increasingly nervous about the macro outlook and its implications for oil demand," he said.
"An acute drop in crude open interest in recent trading sessions suggests the price plunge is being driven by long liquidation than short additions. The key question now is where is the floor for the oil market."
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, its tenth consecutive increase, and indicated a possible pause in future meetings.
The latest action brings the Fed's interest rates to the target range of between 5 per cent and 5.25 per cent.
“The end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is here as policymakers become more worried about economic activity,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.
“If the Fed is worried, that is bad news for the economy and the crude demand outlook.”
Oil futures posted two consecutive weekly declines before this week as a crisis at regional banks in the US led to the collapse of First Republic Bank, the second-largest failure in the US since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The US has had three other failures this year — Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and cryptocurrency-focused lender Silvergate Capital.
The financial turmoil has raised concerns about credit conditions in the country, which are expected to deteriorate for consumers and businesses over the coming six months to their worst level since the Covid-19 pandemic, a survey of chief economists at 15 of America's biggest banks showed last month.
The American Bankers Association said its Credit Conditions Index fell to 5.8 in the second quarter, from 12.5 in the first quarter. A reading below 50 indicates that economists forecast weaker credit conditions in the coming six months.
Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in China, the world’s second largest economy and top crude importer, contracted in April amid lower domestic demand.
The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers' index, which gives a snapshot of the country’s manufacturing sector, slipped to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in the sector.
“The focus will shift to Opec+ and they might be in a position where if they want to stabilise prices, they need to deliver on previously announced production cuts and signal that more are coming,” said Mr Moya.
On April 2, Opec+ producers announced voluntary output cuts of 1.16 million barrels per day to ensure oil market stability. Brent, which crossed $85 a barrel following the group’s decision, has since lost nearly 15 per cent of its value on a weakening global crude demand outlook.
Opec+ will assess the current decline in oil prices, which may be short term, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state news agency Tass on Wednesday.
“We will watch the market. We will monitor the situation. We need to understand the reasons [for the drop in oil prices], the prospects for how [the situation] will evolve further, maybe this is a short-term situation,” Mr Novak was quoted as saying.
US crude inventories, an indicator of fuel demand in the country, fell by 1.3 million barrels last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels, but gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending on April 28, the EIA data showed.
Despite the market volatility, UBS said it is retaining a positive outlook and expects the oil market to tighten as Opec+ members implement their production cuts and oil demand rises over the coming months.
"Flight activity has rebounded strongly this year, with activity around 2019 levels. Generally, we see oil demand holding up and look for even higher demand over the coming months," UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a research note on Thursday.
"On the supply side, voluntary production cuts were implemented at the start of this month. The lower potential Opec+ crude production and exports should help the oil market tighten, supporting our view that oil inventories will begin to decline and support prices."
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Stamp%20duty%20timeline
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDecember%202014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%20Former%20UK%20chancellor%20of%20the%20Exchequer%20George%20Osborne%20reforms%20stamp%20duty%20land%20tax%20(SDLT)%2C%20replacing%20the%20slab%20system%20with%20a%20blended%20rate%20scheme%2C%20with%20the%20top%20rate%20increasing%20to%2012%20per%20cent%20from%2010%20per%20cent%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EUp%20to%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20%E2%80%93%200%25%3B%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20%E2%80%93%202%25%3B%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3925%2C000%20%E2%80%93%205%25%3B%20%C2%A3925%2C000%20to%20%C2%A31.5m%3A%2010%25%3B%20More%20than%20%C2%A31.5m%20%E2%80%93%2012%25%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApril%202016%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20New%203%25%20surcharge%20applied%20to%20any%20buy-to-let%20properties%20or%20additional%20homes%20purchased.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%202020%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chancellor%20Rishi%20Sunak%20unveils%20SDLT%20holiday%2C%20with%20no%20tax%20to%20pay%20on%20the%20first%20%C2%A3500%2C000%2C%20with%20buyers%20saving%20up%20to%20%C2%A315%2C000.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mr%20Sunak%20extends%20the%20SDLT%20holiday%20at%20his%20March%203%20budget%20until%20the%20end%20of%20June.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EApril%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%25%20SDLT%20surcharge%20added%20to%20property%20transactions%20made%20by%20overseas%20buyers.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJune%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20SDLT%20holiday%20on%20transactions%20up%20to%20%C2%A3500%2C000%20expires%20on%20June%2030.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%202021%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tax%20break%20on%20transactions%20between%20%C2%A3125%2C000%20to%20%C2%A3250%2C000%20starts%20on%20July%201%20and%20runs%20until%20September%2030.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
Najlaa Khoury, Archipelago Books
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Ain Dubai in numbers
126: The length in metres of the legs supporting the structure
1 football pitch: The length of each permanent spoke is longer than a professional soccer pitch
16 A380 Airbuses: The equivalent weight of the wheel rim.
9,000 tonnes: The amount of steel used to construct the project.
5 tonnes: The weight of each permanent spoke that is holding the wheel rim in place
192: The amount of cable wires used to create the wheel. They measure a distance of 2,4000km in total, the equivalent of the distance between Dubai and Cairo.
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Fitness problems in men's tennis
Andy Murray - hip
Novak Djokovic - elbow
Roger Federer - back
Stan Wawrinka - knee
Kei Nishikori - wrist
Marin Cilic - adductor
Ukraine
Capital: Kiev
Population: 44.13 million
Armed conflict in Donbass
Russia-backed fighters control territory
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index
Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.
The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.
“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.
“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”
Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.
Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.
“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.
BANGLADESH SQUAD
Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Liton Das, Soumya Sarkar, Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Mahmudullah, Shakib Al Hasan (vice captain), Mohammad Mithun, Sabbir Rahaman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rubel Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, Abu Jayed (Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
Manchester United v Liverpool
Premier League, kick off 7.30pm (UAE)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Pickford, Pope.
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Dier, Gomez, Keane, Maguire, Maitland-Niles, Mings, Saka, Trippier, Walker.
Midfielders Henderson, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse, Winks.
Forwards Abraham, Barnes, Calvert-Lewin, Grealish, Ings, Kane, Rashford, Sancho, Sterling.
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
ASSASSIN'S%20CREED%20MIRAGE
%3Cp%3E%0DDeveloper%3A%20Ubisoft%20Bordeaux%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Ubisoft%0D%3Cbr%3EConsoles%3A%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20Series%20S%26amp%3BX%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
