Annual upstream investment in oil and gas will need to reach $640 billion in 2030, more than 28 per cent up from last year’s $499 billion, to ensure adequate supplies, a report has shown.
The new estimate is about 18 per cent higher than the previous prediction, “primarily because of rising costs”, said the report, which was jointly produced by the International Energy Forum and S&P Global Commodity Insights.
A cumulative investment of $4.9 trillion will be needed between 2023 and 2030 to meet market needs and prevent a supply shortfall, even if demand growth slows towards a plateau, it said.
“This is a significant ask from investors and companies, but one that has become critical in light of the 2020-2021 downturn and erosion of supply buffers in the market,” the report stated.
“Continued upstream investment is needed just as much, if not more, to offset expected production declines than to meet future demand growth.”
Adequate investment is needed for stable markets, and if investment falls short, high prices and high volatility could become the new standard, the report said.
“Underinvestment threatens to undermine energy security in the short and medium term and it can also stall progress on climate goals by increasing reliance on more carbon-intensive options in the short term,” it added.
Without additional drilling, the report estimated that non-Opec production would decline by nine million barrels per day by 2026 and 17 million bpd by 2030.
Oil and gas upstream capital expenditures increased by more than 39 per cent on an annual basis in 2022 to $499 billion. It was the highest level since 2014 and the largest year-on-year gain in history.
“Higher costs primarily drive the increase in investment, but activity has also started to recover. The global rig count is up 22 per cent from a year ago but remains 10 per cent below 2019 levels,” the report said.
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after falling for two straight days as prospects of higher demand offset a large increase in US crude stocks.
Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.08 per cent higher at $85.45 a barrel at 7.44pm UAE time on Thursday.
West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was up 0.17 per cent at $78.72 a barrel.
On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency raised its 2023 global oil demand estimates on China’s reopening.
Global oil demand will rise by two million bpd to 101.9 million bpd this year, up from the agency's forecast of 1.9 million bpd last month, it said.
A slowdown in the global economy and a tightening of global monetary conditions present challenges to the demand outlook and access to capital in the industry that has the task of jump-starting upstream investment after stalling in 2020-2021.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth estimate and forecast for 2022 and 2023 by one percentage point or more in the past 12 months. In its latest update, the IMF warned that nearly 33 per cent of the world economy will enter a recession in the next year and the lost output through 2026 will total $4 trillion.
The major constraint on near-term investment levels has shifted from capital availability to capital allocation, the report said.
“Oil and gas E&Ps [exploration and production] are experiencing record profits. While companies prioritise returns to shareholders, share buy-backs, and debt repayment, they still have ample free cash flow that could jump-start upstream investment,” the report said.
“The question is now, will companies reinvest, and if so, where?”
If the world economy enters a recession in 2023, depending on the duration and depth, it is possible that oil demand growth could remain below trend in the next couple of years, it added.
Once economic activity recovers, it is likely to be less oil demand-intensive than it would have been due to fuel switching, electric vehicle penetration, efficiency improvements and accelerated climate policies.
“The near-term uncertainty of demand and the potential medium-to-long-term consequences add to investment hurdles and deterrents,” the report said.
“However, it also provides a valuable opportunity for upstream investments to catch supply up with demand.”
Global spare production capacity will remain limited in the near term, the report said. Current global spare production capacity is at only two million bpd to 2.5 million bpd and nearly all of it is held by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Gulf producers typically maintain a buffer to increase production in unexpected supply cuts and emergencies.
Saudi Arabia plans to increase capacity to 13.2 million bpd (from their current 12.2 million bpd) by 2027, and the UAE plans to expand to five million bpd (from 4.2 million bpd) by 2027.
However, actual production increases will depend on Opec+ policy and their desire to maintain their traditional safeguard, the report said.
It further suggested that the energy sector and policymakers can prepare and help mitigate negative impacts by taking various steps.
These include increasing producer-consumer dialogue, bolstering inventories, providing regulatory and policy certainty, supporting long-term contracts, de-risking investments, basing policies on realistic energy demand scenarios and increasing market transparency.
'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Racecard
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah Group Two (PA) US$55,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Meydan Trophy (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,900m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,200m
8.15pm: Balanchine Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,000m
9.25pm: Firebreak Stakes Group Three (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections: 6.30pm: RM Lam Tara, 7.05pm: Al Mukhtar Star, 7.40pm: Bochart, 8.15pm: Magic Lily, 8.50pm: Roulston Scar, 9.25pm: Quip, 10pm: Jalmoud
Panipat
Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman
Rating 3 /5 stars
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Another way to earn air miles
In addition to the Emirates and Etihad programmes, there is the Air Miles Middle East card, which offers members the ability to choose any airline, has no black-out dates and no restrictions on seat availability. Air Miles is linked up to HSBC credit cards and can also be earned through retail partners such as Spinneys, Sharaf DG and The Toy Store.
An Emirates Dubai-London round-trip ticket costs 180,000 miles on the Air Miles website. But customers earn these ‘miles’ at a much faster rate than airline miles. Adidas offers two air miles per Dh1 spent. Air Miles has partnerships with websites as well, so booking.com and agoda.com offer three miles per Dh1 spent.
“If you use your HSBC credit card when shopping at our partners, you are able to earn Air Miles twice which will mean you can get that flight reward faster and for less spend,” says Paul Lacey, the managing director for Europe, Middle East and India for Aimia, which owns and operates Air Miles Middle East.
ZIMBABWE V UAE, ODI SERIES
All matches at the Harare Sports Club:
1st ODI, Wednesday - Zimbabwe won by 7 wickets
2nd ODI, Friday, April 12
3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14
4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2a)
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7%E2%80%9D%20flexible%20Amoled%2C%202412%20x%201080%2C%20394ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%20Corning%20Gorilla%20Glass%205%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20MediaTek%20Dimensity%207200%20Pro%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%2F12GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2014%2C%20Nothing%20OS%202.5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2050MP%20main%2C%20f%2F1.88%20%2B%2050MP%20ultra-wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3B%20OIS%2C%20EIS%2C%20auto-focus%2C%20ultra%20XDR%2C%20night%20mode%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2030fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2060fps%3B%20slo-mo%20full-HD%20at%20120fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032MP%20wide%2C%20f%2F2.2%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205000mAh%3B%2050%25%20in%2030%20mins%20w%2F%2045w%20charger%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Google%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fingerprint%2C%20face%20unlock%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP54%2C%20limited%20protection%20from%20water%2Fdust%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual-nano%20SIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Black%2C%20milk%2C%20white%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nothing%20Phone%20(2a)%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%2C%20pre-applied%20screen%20protector%2C%20SIM%20tray%20ejector%20tool%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%20(UAE)%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh1%2C199%20(8GB%2F128GB)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C399%20(12GB%2F256GB)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
PREMIER LEAGUE RESULTS
Bournemouth 1 Manchester City 2
Watford 0 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Newcastle United 3 West Ham United 0
Huddersfield Town 0 Southampton 0
Crystal Palace 0 Swansea City 2
Manchester United 2 Leicester City 0
West Bromwich Albion 1 Stoke City 1
Chelsea 2 Everton 0
Tottenham Hotspur 1 Burnley 1
Liverpool 4 Arsenal 0
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Biog
Mr Kandhari is legally authorised to conduct marriages in the gurdwara
He has officiated weddings of Sikhs and people of different faiths from Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Russia, the US and Canada
Father of two sons, grandfather of six
Plays golf once a week
Enjoys trying new holiday destinations with his wife and family
Walks for an hour every morning
Completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree in Loyola College, Chennai, India
2019 is a milestone because he completes 50 years in business
Roger Federer's 2018 record
Australian Open Champion
Rotterdam Champion
Indian Wells Runner-up
Miami Second round
Stuttgart Champion
Halle Runner-up
Wimbledon Quarter-finals
Cincinnati Runner-up
US Open Fourth round
Shanghai Semi-finals
Basel Champion
Paris Masters Semi-finals
