Oil prices tumbled on the first trading day of the year amid demand concerns as the International Monetary Fund's managing director warned that a third of the world's economies may slide into a recession in 2023.
After opening about 1 per cent lower and then climbing higher, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, settled 4.4 per cent lower to $82.10 a barrel at the close trading on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, declined 4.1 per cent to $76.93 a barrel.
Brent averaged $103.70 a barrel in 2022, gaining about 10 per cent annually, after jumping 50 per cent in 2021, while WTI ended up about 7 per cent last year, following a 55 per cent surge in 2021.
This was the second annual gain for the oil market despite last year's price volatility, which was exacerbated by the Ukraine war that disrupted global supplies.
“US crude is struggling to take over the 50-day simple moving average resistance, as the slowing China story — despite the reopening — and the mild winter in Europe weigh on the bulls’ appetite to boost the price rally,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“But the oil bulls may have not said their last word yet.
“The limited oil supply, Opec’s willingness to keep oil prices sustained to fill in the coffers, the switching demand from gas to oil, the Americans who sold 180 million of their strategic petroleum reserves last year — but who will also need to refill them as soon as possible — and possibly around $70 to $80 per barrel levels, and the slow green transition, all hint that the downside in oil will likely remain limited.”
Oil prices are expected to remain firm, with limited downside risks in 2023, Saudi Arabia's Al Rajhi Bank.
They will be aided by lower Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stock levels, supply shortfalls on account of the move by Opec+ to cut output by 2 million barrels a day, sanctions on Russian supply and US plans to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The lender expects crude prices to average $79 a barrel in 2023.
Brent soared to a 14-year high of close to $140 a barrel in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but sluggish growth in China, the world's second-largest economy and the biggest importer of crude, and the strong possibility of a recession in several economies weighed on the market.
“The reopening of China’s economy will be a fundamental force in the ebbs and flows for energy markets this year, particularly if there is strong demand for international travel from Chinese consumers,” Edward Bell, a senior economist at Emirates NBD, said in a research note on Monday.
“Russia will face more disruption to its energy markets as another EU embargo comes into effect in Q1 [the first quarter], this time on refined products, and markets will continue to adjust to the effects of the price cap on Russian oil.”
China's economy is forecast to accelerate 4.4 per cent in 2023, after an estimated 3.2 per cent expansion last year and 8.1 per cent growth in 2021, according to the IMF.
A slowdown in China’s economy last year added to global supply chain disruptions and crimped global growth amid renewed Covid-19 outbreaks and the country's zero-Covid approach that led to new lockdowns.
In an interview with the US news channel CBS on Sunday, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy faces “a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind”.
“We expect one third of the world economy to be in recession,” Ms Georgieva told CBS’s news programme Face the Nation.
“Why? Because the three big economies — US, EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.
“While our baseline avoids a global recession over the next year, odds of one are uncomfortably high. Europe, however, will not escape recession and the US is teetering on the verge.”
The Washington-based lender had already cut its growth forecast for 2023 in October and warned of a cost-of-living crisis this year.
The fund cut its growth forecast to 2.7 per cent this year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast.
It had also warned of a 25 per cent probability that output could fall below 2 per cent in 2023, the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the 2008 global financial crisis and the acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in October.
The fund expects a global output loss of about $4 trillion by 2026, equivalent to the size of the German economy — Europe's largest.
Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda, said the outlook remained “highly uncertain, though which should ensure oil prices remain highly volatile”.
An December 5 agreement — by the EU, Australia and the Group of Seven advanced economies — that places a price cap of $60 on global purchases of seaborne Russian crude has had little impact so far, Mr Erlam said.
“But that could change if oil prices keep moving higher, nudging Russian crude ever closer to the cap level and forcing some very difficult decisions.”
All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
if you go
The flights
Direct flights from the UAE to the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, are available with Air Arabia, (www.airarabia.com) Fly Dubai (www.flydubai.com) or Etihad (www.etihad.com) from Dh1,200 return including taxes. The trek described here started from Jomson, but there are many other start and end point variations depending on how you tailor your trek. To get to Jomson from Kathmandu you must first fly to the lake-side resort town of Pokhara with either Buddha Air (www.buddhaair.com) or Yeti Airlines (www.yetiairlines.com). Both charge around US$240 (Dh880) return. From Pokhara there are early morning flights to Jomson with Yeti Airlines or Simrik Airlines (www.simrikairlines.com) for around US$220 (Dh800) return.
The trek
Restricted area permits (US$500 per person) are required for trekking in the Upper Mustang area. The challenging Meso Kanto pass between Tilcho Lake and Jomson should not be attempted by those without a lot of mountain experience and a good support team. An excellent trekking company with good knowledge of Upper Mustang, the Annaurpuna Circuit and Tilcho Lake area and who can help organise a version of the trek described here is the Nepal-UK run Snow Cat Travel (www.snowcattravel.com). Prices vary widely depending on accommodation types and the level of assistance required.
DUBAI SEVENS 2018 DRAW
Gulf Men’s League
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Sports City Eagles
Pool B – Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf Men’s Open
Pool A – Bahrain Firbolgs, Arabian Knights, Yalla Rugby, Muscat
Pool B – Amman Citadel, APB Dubai Sharks, Jebel Ali Dragons 2, Saudi Rugby
Pool C – Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2, Roberts Construction, Dubai Exiles 2
Pool D – Dubai Tigers, UAE Shaheen, Sharjah Wanderers, Amman Citadel 2
Gulf U19 Boys
Pool A – Deira International School, Dubai Hurricanes, British School Al Khubairat, Jumeirah English Speaking School B
Pool B – Dubai English Speaking College 2, Jumeirah College, Dubai College A, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 2
Pool C – Bahrain Colts, Al Yasmina School, DESC, DC B
Pool D – Al Ain Amblers, Repton Royals, Dubai Exiles, Gems World Academy Dubai
Pool E – JESS A, Abu Dhabi Sharks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins 1, EC
Gulf Women
Pool A – Kuwait Scorpions, Black Ruggers, Dubai Sports City Eagles, Dubai Hurricanes 2
Pool B – Emirates Firebirds, Sharjah Wanderers, RAK Rides, Beirut Aconites
Pool C – Dubai Hurricanes, Emirates Firebirds 2, Abu Dhabi Saracens, Transforma Panthers
Pool D – AUC Wolves, Dubai Hawks, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Al Ain Amblers
Gulf U19 Girls
Pool A – Dubai Exiles, BSAK, DESC, Al Maha
Pool B – Arabian Knights, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Abu Dhabi Harlequins
FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYousuf%20Ali%20(2-0-0)%20(win-loss-draw)%20v%20Alex%20Semugenyi%20(0-1-0)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBenyamin%20Moradzadeh%20(0-0-0)%20v%20Rohit%20Chaudhary%20(4-0-2)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHeavyweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYoussef%20Karrar%20(1-0-0)%20v%20Muhammad%20Muzeei%20(0-0-0)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMarwan%20Mohamad%20Madboly%20(2-0-0)%20v%20Sheldon%20Schultz%20(4-4-0)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20featherweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBishara%20Sabbar%20(6-0-0)%20v%20Mohammed%20Azahar%20(8-5-1)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECruiseweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Bekdash%20(25-0-0)%20v%20Musa%20N%E2%80%99tege%20(8-4-0)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20flyweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESultan%20Al%20Nuaimi%20(9-0-0)%20v%20Jemsi%20Kibazange%20(18-6-2)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBader%20Samreen%20(8-0-0)%20v%20Jose%20Paez%20Gonzales%20(16-2-2-)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
more from Janine di Giovanni
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cp%3EHigh%20fever%20(40%C2%B0C%2F104%C2%B0F)%3Cbr%3ESevere%20headache%3Cbr%3EPain%20behind%20the%20eyes%3Cbr%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3Cbr%3ENausea%3Cbr%3EVomiting%3Cbr%3ESwollen%20glands%3Cbr%3ERash%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULT
Argentina 0 Croatia 3
Croatia: Rebic (53'), Modric (80'), Rakitic (90' 1)
Racecard
6pm: Mina Hamriya – Handicap (TB) $75,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
6.35pm: Al Wasl Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.10pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,900m
7.45pm: Blue Point Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,000m
8.20pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (T) 2,810m
8.55pm: Mina Rashid – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (T) 1,600m
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, semi-final result:
Liverpool 4-0 Barcelona
Liverpool win 4-3 on aggregate
Champions Legaue final: June 1, Madrid
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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WHEN TO GO:
September to November or March to May; this is when visitors are most likely to see what they’ve come for.
WHERE TO STAY:
Meghauli Serai, A Taj Safari - Chitwan National Park resort (tajhotels.com) is a one-hour drive from Bharatpur Airport with stays costing from Dh1,396 per night, including taxes and breakfast. Return airport transfers cost from Dh661.
HOW TO GET THERE:
Etihad Airways regularly flies from Abu Dhabi to Kathmandu from around Dh1,500 per person return, including taxes. Buddha Air (buddhaair.com) and Yeti Airlines (yetiairlines.com) fly from Kathmandu to Bharatpur several times a day from about Dh660 return and the flight takes just 20 minutes. Driving is possible but the roads are hilly which means it will take you five or six hours to travel 148 kilometres.
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
RIDE%20ON
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Larry%20Yang%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Jackie%20Chan%2C%20Liu%20Haocun%2C%20Kevin%20Guo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bangladesh tour of Pakistan
January 24 – First T20, Lahore
January 25 – Second T20, Lahore
January 27 – Third T20, Lahore
February 7-11 – First Test, Rawalpindi
April 3 – One-off ODI, Karachi
April 5-9 – Second Test, Karachi
Company%C2%A0profile
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Last-16 Europa League fixtures
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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