Bills will be high, but Europe will survive the winter: it’s bought enough oil and gas to get through the cold seasons.
Much deeper costs will be borne by the world’s poorest countries, which have been shut out of the natural gas market by Europe’s suddenly ravenous demand. It’s left emerging market countries unable to meet today’s needs or tomorrow’s, and the most likely consequences — factory shutdowns, more frequent and longer-lasting power shortages, the foment of social unrest — could stretch into the next decade.
“Energy security concerns in Europe are driving energy poverty in the emerging world,” said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. “Europe is sucking gas away from other countries whatever the cost.”
After a summer of rolling blackouts and political turmoil, cooler weather and heavy rains have alleviated the immediate energy crisis in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and the Philippines. But any relief promises to be temporary.
Colder temperatures are on the way — parts of South Asia can be more bitter than London — and the chances of securing long-term supplies are slim. The strong US dollar has only complicated the situation, forcing nations to choose between buying fuel and making debt payments. Under the circumstances, global fuel suppliers are increasingly wary of selling to countries that could be heading for default.
The center of the issue is Europe’s response to tightening fuel supplies and the war in Ukraine. Cut off from Russian gas, European countries have turned to the spot market, where energy that isn’t committed to buyers is made available for short-notice delivery. With prices soaring, some suppliers to South Asia have simply cancelled long-scheduled deliveries in favour of better yields elsewhere, traders say.
“Suppliers don’t need to focus on securing their LNG to low affordability markets,” Raghav Mathur, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie said. The higher prices they can get on the spot market more than make up for whatever penalties they might pay for shirking planned shipments. And that dynamic is likely to hold for years, Mathur says.
Damage caused by global warming, such as the devastating floods in Pakistan, is also wreaking economic havoc on emerging nations, prompting leaders at UN climate talks in Egypt this month to discuss how richer countries can help provide more support.
At the same time, Europe is speeding up construction of floating import terminals to bring in more fuel in the future. Germany, Italy and Finland have secured the plants. The Netherlands started importing LNG from new floating terminals in September. European demand for natural gas is expected to surge by nearly 60 per cent through 2026, according to BloombergNEF.
Exporters in Qatar and the United States are now entertaining bids from European importers looking to buy fuel to fill the new capacity. For the first time, emerging nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand are forced to compete on price with Germany and other economies several times their size.
“We are borrowing other people’s energy supplies,” said Vitol group chief executive Russell Hardy. “It’s not a great thing.”
Usually, when there’s a short-term shortage, nations can sign long-term supply contracts, paying a fixed rate for the assurance of reliable deliveries for years. That hasn’t worked this time. Even bids for deliveries starting years into the future are being rejected.
India failed in its latest attempt to lock in shipments starting in 2025. Bangladesh and Thailand essentially abandoned efforts to get contracts that start before 2026, when massive new export plants in Qatar and the US plan to start shipping fuel. Pakistan last month was unable to close a six-year deal that would have started next year, after several attempts at short-term purchases also failed.
“We’d thought the crisis would be over by the end of the year, but it isn’t,” said Kulit Sombatsiri, permanent secretary of Thailand’s energy ministry, at a briefing on Monday. If LNG prices continue to rise, he added, the government would have to consider measures such as closing down convenience stores and other high-energy businesses.
LNG suppliers fear that these nations won’t be able to pay for promised deliveries. Fuel is priced in US dollars, and a single shipment currently costs nearly $100 million. For comparison, LNG shipments averaged $33 million during the 2010s. And costs are higher still in domestic currencies because the dollar has been rapidly appreciating, adding to pressure on the countries' beleaguered finances.
Without Russian gas flowing into Europe, the global gas markets will stay tight. Spot prices will remain high, and without the ability to secure long-term supplies, developing countries may look to dirtier fuels or other partners.
The momentum behind natural gas growth in developing economies has slowed, notably in South and Southeast Asia, putting a dent in the credentials of gas as a transition fuel, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2022. Natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel and emits less CO2 than coal when combusted.
The energy shortage has already brought the emerging world and Russia closer together. Russia’s been more than happy to offer fuel to Pakistan, India and others who’ve been shut out of the spot market.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Day 1, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.
Stat of the day - 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.
The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227 for four at the close.
Charlotte Gainsbourg
Rest
(Because Music)
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Ronaldo's record at Man Utd
Seasons 2003/04 - 2008/09
Appearances 230
Goals 115
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Key features of new policy
Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6
Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge
A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools
Schools to implement online system to encouraging transparency and accountability
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last-16. first leg
Atletico Madrid v Juventus, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
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yallacompare profile
Date of launch: 2014
Founder: Jon Richards, founder and chief executive; Samer Chebab, co-founder and chief operating officer, and Jonathan Rawlings, co-founder and chief financial officer
Based: Media City, Dubai
Sector: Financial services
Size: 120 employees
Investors: 2014: $500,000 in a seed round led by Mulverhill Associates; 2015: $3m in Series A funding led by STC Ventures (managed by Iris Capital), Wamda and Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority; 2019: $8m in Series B funding with the same investors as Series A along with Precinct Partners, Saned and Argo Ventures (the VC arm of multinational insurer Argo Group)
Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
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What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
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Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
RESULT
Australia 3 (0) Honduras 1 (0)
Australia: Jedinak (53', 72' pen, 85' pen)
Honduras: Elis (90 4)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES
Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)
Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)
Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
