Europe could face a deficit of as much as 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2023 if Russian supplies come to a halt and demand from China recovers, said the International Energy Agency in a report on Thursday.
Gas storage sites in the European Union are now 95 per cent full, but the cushion provided by current storage levels as well as recent lower gas prices and mild temperatures should not lead to “overly optimistic” conclusions about the future, the agency said.
“With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” said the agency's executive director, Fatih Birol.
“When we look at the latest trends and likely developments in global and European gas markets, we see that Europe is set to face an even sterner challenge next winter.”
Europe is experiencing its worst energy crisis in history after Russia, the world's second-largest energy exporter before the Ukraine war and the continent's biggest natural gas supplier, reduced its exports in response to the EU’s wide-ranging economic sanctions.
However, European natural gas prices have dropped in recent weeks, with the warm weather and higher-than-expected gas storage levels easing concerns over winter shortages.
European gas futures dropped as low as €93.35 ($91.32) per megawatt hour last week, the lowest since mid-June.
EU gas storage benefited from “close to normal” Russian gas deliveries in the first half of 2022, the agency said.
Total pipeline supply from Russia to the EU in 2022 is likely to amount to about 60 bcm, but it is “highly unlikely” that Russia will deliver the same amount of gas in the coming year, the Paris-based agency said.
“Russian deliveries to Europe could halt completely,” it said.
Russia has threatened to completely shut off Europe’s energy supply if a proposed price cap by the Group of Seven countries, known as the G7, is enacted in December.
Energy markets are going to enter another phase of uncertainty once an EU ban on Russian crude comes into effect on December 5. A ban on Russian oil products will commence on February 5.
Lower imports from China, the world's largest liquefied natural gas importer, in the first 10 months of 2022 have been a key enabler of higher LNG availability in Europe, the agency said.
“If China’s LNG imports recover next year to their 2021 levels, this would capture over 85 per cent of the expected increase in global LNG supply,” it said.
Global LNG supply is expected to increase by only 20 bcm in 2023, with about one third of the growth coming from the US.
As the global energy crisis deepens and countries scramble to secure reliable energy sources, investments in new LNG infrastructure are likely to surge, reaching $42 billion annually in 2024, Rystad Energy said in an August report.
The current strains on gas supply have led to energy shortages in several parts of the developing world that rely on imported gas, notably Pakistan and Bangladesh. Major growth markets for gas, such as India and China, have meanwhile sharply reduced their LNG imports in 2022.
START-UPS%20IN%20BATCH%204%20OF%20SANABIL%20500'S%20ACCELERATOR%20PROGRAMME
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Gulf rugby
Who’s won what so far in 2018/19
Western Clubs Champions League: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Dubai Hurricanes
West Asia Premiership: Bahrain
What’s left
UAE Conference
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Hurricanes II v Al Ain Amblers, Jebel Ali Dragons II v Dubai Tigers
March 29, final
UAE Premiership
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Exiles v Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Hurricanes
March 29, final
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
WHAT ARE NFTs?
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are tokens that represent ownership of unique items. They allow the tokenisation of things such as art, collectibles and even real estate.
An NFT can have only one official owner at one time. And since they're minted and secured on the Ethereum blockchain, no one can modify the record of ownership, not even copy-paste it into a new one.
This means NFTs are not interchangeable and cannot be exchanged with other items. In contrast, fungible items, such as fiat currencies, can be exchanged because their value defines them rather than their unique properties.
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The Details
Article 15
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If you go:
Getting there:
Flying to Guyana requires first reaching New York with either Emirates or Etihad, then connecting with JetBlue or Caribbean Air at JFK airport. Prices start from around Dh7,000.
Getting around:
Wildlife Worldwide offers a range of Guyana itineraries, such as its small group tour, the 15-day ‘Ultimate Guyana Nature Experience’ which features Georgetown, the Iwokrama Rainforest (one of the world’s four remaining pristine tropical rainforests left in the world), the Amerindian village of Surama and the Rupununi Savannah, known for its giant anteaters and river otters; wildlifeworldwide.com
