The outlook for crude prices over the next 12 months remains positive, even as the US plans to release more oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
In a research note on Wednesday, UBS said further releases from the SPR would not fix any structural imbalance caused by years of underinvestment and the world’s “ever-rising thirst for oil”.
US President Joe Biden will announce on Wednesday that he is putting 15 million barrels on the market, the final tranche of oil from a programme announced early this year to release 180 million barrels of crude from the SPR.
Washington may consider more releases in the coming winter months if energy prices surge.
The Swiss lender, which does not expect further “large” sales from the emergency reserve, said oil markets would remain tight over the coming years due to chronic underinvestment in new projects and an increased focus on capital discipline in the US shale patch.
US shale producers, usually quick to raise output in response to oil price increases, have come under pressure from shareholders to boost returns and profitability.
“Higher prices are therefore needed to incentivise supply and slow demand growth,” UBS said. “However, the market is likely to be less tight than we initially expected for the next 12 months because of various headwinds.”
Brent crude gained around $14 after the Opec+ alliance of oil-producing countries decided to slash its collective output by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest output cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
Prices have since come under pressure due to recession concerns, the war in Ukraine and the likelihood that China will extend its zero-Covid policy.
Prices go could higher once an EU ban on Russian crude oil comes into effect later this year, UBS said.
The EU’s deadline to stop importing Russian waterborne crude is on December 5 while a ban on refined products takes effect February 5.
Russia, which is currently embroiled in a conflict with Ukraine, will continue exporting crude to some European countries after the ban. However, it will still need to find a new market for more than 1 million bpd of crude by December.
China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and second-largest economy globally, has been buying discounted crude oil from Russia since the war began. However, it will be less inclined to increase its energy reliance on Moscow.
“While Russian crude trades at a discount to market prices, exports to China and India have not increased further,” said UBS.
“We believe China may be aiming to avoid making Europe’s mistake of becoming too dependent of one country, preferring to keep the maximum share of one exporter at 20 per cent.”
Pandemic-related mobility restrictions have limited oil demand growth in China.
Since 2020, Beijing has pursued a zero-Covid policy that calls for complete lockdowns, even in the case of minor outbreaks. Frequent lockdowns have affected China’s large manufacturing sector and disrupted global supply chains.
Earlier this week, President Xi Jinping hailed the country’s pandemic policy as a major achievement, in a sign that the government would persist with its current approach despite the impact on the global economy.
UBS expects a “more meaningful” relaxation of pandemic rules to only be announced after China’s “Two Sessions”, annual plenary meetings of the country's parliament that discuss economic and social policies. The next one will be in March 2023.
Apart from demand concerns, the US dollar has also weighed on oil prices this year.
The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the greenback against a weighted basket of major currencies, has gained more than 5 per cent over the past three months, in part due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increases.
“For oil consumer nations whose currencies are not linked to the greenback, oil prices have increased much more in local currency terms,” said UBS.
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Keep it fun and engaging
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says children cannot learn something overnight, so it helps to have a fun routine that keeps them engaged and interested.
“I explain to my daughter that the money I draw from an ATM or the money on my bank card doesn’t just magically appear – it’s money I have earned from my job. I show her how this works by giving her little chores around the house so she can earn pocket money,” says Mr Ritchie.
His daughter is allowed to spend half of her pocket money, while the other half goes into a bank account. When this money hits a certain milestone, Mr Ritchie rewards his daughter with a small lump sum.
He also recommends books that teach the importance of money management for children, such as The Squirrel Manifesto by Ric Edelman and Jean Edelman.
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FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)
Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)
Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)
GROUP RESULTS
Group A
Results
Ireland beat UAE by 226 runs
West Indies beat Netherlands by 54 runs
Group B
Results
Zimbabwe tied with Scotland
Nepal beat Hong Kong by five wickets
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sweet%20Tooth
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Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
GREATEST ROYAL RUMBLE CARD
The line-up as it stands for the Greatest Royal Rumble in Saudi Arabia on April 27
50-man Royal Rumble
Universal Championship
Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns
Casket match
The Undertaker v Rusev
Intercontinental Championship
Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
SmackDown Tag Team Championship
The Bludgeon Brothers v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship
Sheamus and Cesaro v Bray Wyatt and Matt Hardy
United States Championship
Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
Singles match
Triple H v John Cena
To be confirmed
AJ Styles will defend his WWE World Heavyweight title and Cedric Alexander his Cruiserweight Championship, but matches have yet to be announced
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EImelda%20Staunton%2C%20Jonathan%20Pryce%2C%20Lesley%20Manville%2C%20Jonny%20Lee%20Miller%2C%20Dominic%20West%2C%20Elizabeth%20Debicki%2C%20Salim%20Daw%20and%20Khalid%20Abdalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWritten%20by%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPeter%20Morgan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%20stars%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Central%20Bank's%20push%20for%20a%20robust%20financial%20infrastructure
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Richard Jewell
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Brandon Stanley
Two-and-a-half out of five stars
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
In The Heights
Directed by: Jon M. Chu
Stars: Anthony Ramos, Lin-Manual Miranda
Rating: ****
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
