Opec kept its global oil demand forecast unchanged for this year despite headwinds from rising inflation, increasing interest rates and the continuing war in Ukraine.
World oil demand growth remained pegged at “a healthy” 3.1 million barrels per day rise in 2022, including the recent additional oil demand growth due to fuel-switching in power generation, the producers’ group said in its monthly market report on Tuesday.
It estimates global oil consumption in 2022 to average 100 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, produced 11.05 million barrels per day in August, up from 10.8 million barrels per day in July.
“The global growth level has been well supported by consumption, which has shown a solid trend especially in advanced economies,” Opec said.
“However, some downside risks remain, stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the pandemic, supply chain issues, rising inflation, high sovereign debt levels in many regions and expected monetary tightening by US, EU and UK central banks.”
The group estimates oil demand in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to grow by 1.6 million bpd in 2022, while the non-OECD growth is expected at 1.5 million bpd.
“The second quarter of 2022 is revised higher amid better-than-anticipated oil demand in the main OECD consuming countries, while the third and fourth quarter of 2022 have seen offsetting revisions,” Opec said.
For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth remains unchanged at 2.7 million bpd, with total oil demand averaging 102.73 million bpd, Opec data indicated.
Oil demand next year is expected to be supported by a “still-solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as potential improvements in Covid-19 restrictions and reduced geopolitical uncertainties", the group said.
Oil prices have remained volatile this year. Brent rose to a notch under $140 a barrel in March after Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine. Trading has remained volatile amid demand concerns, rising inflation and subsequent increase in interest rates.
Lockdowns across China that are affecting about 65 million citizens in the world's largest energy importer also remain a concern for energy markets.
Meanwhile, the weakening global economic outlook could also dent demand.
In July, the International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecast for the global economy to 3.2 per cent this year, from its previous projection of 3.6 per cent in April.
Opec on Tuesday kept its global economic growth forecast unchanged at 3.1 per cent for both this year and next.
It has also kept the US economic projection unchanged for 2022 at 1.8 per cent, but revised down eurozone growth to 3.1 per cent. China’s 2022 growth forecast was also lowered to 4.2 per cent, while India’s remained unchanged at 7.1 per cent.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
if you go
The flights
Emirates have direct flights from Dubai to Glasgow from Dh3,115. Alternatively, if you want to see a bit of Edinburgh first, then you can fly there direct with Etihad from Abu Dhabi.
The hotel
|
Located in the heart of Mackintosh's Glasgow, the Dakota Deluxe is perhaps the most refined hotel anywhere in the city. Doubles from Dh850
|
Events and tours
There are various Mackintosh specific events throughout 2018 – for more details and to see a map of his surviving designs see glasgowmackintosh.com
For walking tours focussing on the Glasgow Style, see the website of the Glasgow School of Art.
More information
For ideas on planning a trip to Scotland, visit www.visitscotland.com
THREE
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
