The International Energy Agency has trimmed its global oil demand forecast for this year and the next as the worsening macroeconomic outlook and fears of a recession dampen market sentiment.
Oil demand is now expected to expand 1.7 million barrels per day in 2022 (down slightly from the IEA's forecast of 1.8 million bpd in June) and 2.1 million bpd in 2023 (compared with the 2.2 million bpd June forecast), to reach 99.2 million bpd and 101.3 million bpd, respectively, the Paris-based agency said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.
"The deceleration of economic activity is adding further uncertainties to our oil demand forecast but, for now, we have only modestly trimmed our outlook for 2022 and 2023," it said.
"High fuel prices have started to dent oil consumption in the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development], but this was largely countered by a stronger-than-expected demand rebound in emerging and developing economies led by China as it starts to emerge from Covid lockdowns."
The IEA's forecast for 2023 is lower than Opec's prediction, which expects demand growth to reach 2.7 million bpd to average 103 million bpd next year.
A solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as improved geopolitical developments and the containment of Covid-19 in China will support oil demand in 2023, Opec said on Tuesday.
Oil prices have been extremely volatile in recent weeks, with Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, falling about 7 per cent to reach below $100 a barrel overnight on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund downgraded the growth rate of US, the world's largest economy.
Brent rebounded on Wednesday and was up 0.66 per cent to $100.15 a barrel at 2.06pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading 0.81 per cent higher at $96.62 a barrel.
On Tuesday, the IMF downgraded its US economic growth forecast to 2.3 per cent this year, from a 2.9 per cent projection last month and cut the country's outlook for 2023 to 1 per cent compared with its previous 1.7 per cent estimate.
The fund also warned that the surge in inflation, which hit 9.1 per cent in June, posed "systemic risks" to the US and global economy.
The IMF has cautioned that a recession next year cannot be ruled out, given the elevated risks.
The World Bank has also warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation and financial conditions have accentuated the slowdown in global economic activity. It now expects world economic growth to ease to 2.9 per cent in 2022 from 5.7 per cent in 2021.
"Rarely has the outlook for oil markets been more uncertain. A worsening macroeconomic outlook and fears of recession are weighing on market sentiment, while there are ongoing risks on the supply side," the IEA said.
"For now, weaker-than-expected oil demand growth in advanced economies and resilient Russian supply has loosened headline balances. Benchmark crude futures have tumbled by more than $20 per barrel since early June ... Yet, persistent physical crude price tensions and extreme refinery margins highlight underlying imbalances for crude and products supply."
World oil supply jumped by 690,000 bpd to 99.5 million bpd in June as resilient Russian production and higher output from the US and Canada more than offset steep maintenance-related losses from Kazakhstan, the IEA said.
Total OECD production of crude oil, natural gas liquids and refinery feedstocks increased by 4.7 per cent in April 2022 on an annual basis, the IEA said in a separate statistics report released on Wednesday.
Production is further expected to rise by 1.8 million bpd by end-year to reach 101.3 million bpd.
Global oil supply is set to average 100.1 million bpd in 2022 before hitting an annual record of 101.1 million bpd in 2023, indicating that supply will be able to meet demand in the market.
"Our forecast was revised slightly higher for oil supply for the remainder of the year due to Russia’s surprisingly strong performance," the IEA said.
While world oil supply is expected to grow by roughly 1.8 million bpd through December, "rising short-term risks to oil supply in Kazakhstan, Libya and elsewhere have put the spotlight on spare capacity, which now is held primarily by Saudi Arabia and the UAE", the report said.
The Opec+ group's planned oil production quota targets end in August, and it is due to meet on August 3 to discuss its strategy for September and beyond.
"Global oil inventories remain critically low, with recent builds concentrated in China, where refiners reduced runs due to weaker demand amid Covid lockdowns," the IEA said.
While OECD industry stocks have recovered due to sizeable government stock releases, they remain nearly 300 million barrels below their five-year average.
Looking ahead, as the EU's embargo on Russian oil comes into full force at the end of the year, the market may tighten once again, the Paris-based agency said.
"With readily available spare capacity running low in both the upstream and downstream, it may be up to demand side measures to bring down consumption and fuel costs that pose a threat to stability, most notably in emerging markets," it said.
"Without strong policy intervention on energy use, risks remain high that the world economy falls off-track for recovery."
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
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Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.
Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.
The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The years Ramadan fell in May
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge – Rally schedule:
Saturday: Super Special Spectator Stage – Yas Marina Circuit – start 3.30pm.
Sunday: Yas Marina Circuit Stage 1 (276.01km)
Monday: Nissan Stage 2 (287.92km)
Tuesday: Al Ain Water Stage 3 (281.38km)
Wednesday: ADNOC Stage 4 (244.49km)
Thursday: Abu Dhabi Aviation Stage 5 (218.57km) Finish: Yas Marina Circuit – 4.30pm.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
