Russia could lose about $85 billion in oil and gas tax income this year due to the discounts offered in Urals blend crude, the country’s key oil reference blend, Rystad Energy has said.
The Urals blend has been trading about $30 to $40 per barrel lower than Brent — the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil — since April this year, the Oslo-based consultancy said on Tuesday.
With the outbreak of the Russian war in Ukraine in February, the Urals blend started to trade with a large discount to Brent. From mid-February to the beginning of March, the differential increased from $10 per barrel to $40 per barrel — the largest to date.
Rystad projects Russia’s income for 2022 to be about $295bn if all oil assets realised the Brent oil price.
By using an average fixed spread of $40 per barrel between the Urals realised price and Brent, Rystad estimated that Russia's tax income will be reduced by $85bn over the whole year. This is a nearly 30 per cent reduction compared to the “no spread” case.
Russia will earn about $210bn in oil and gas tax income this year, Rystad predicted.
The steep discount on Urals shows that some of the sanctions imposed on Russia are having an impact and are “reducing potential oil and gas income to the Russian government”, it added.
“We are starting to see the potential impacts of western sanctions on Russian oil and gas revenue,” said Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
“The steep discount on Urals is costing the Russian government, while providing cheaper energy to some Asian economies.”
The six rounds of EU sanctions so far have restricted trade with Russia, isolated its financial system and penalised senior figures in President Vladimir Putin's inner circle.
Brent rose to a notch under $140 per barrel in March, following Russia's invasion in Ukraine. However, all producers are not benefiting equally from the sustained high crude prices as the war — now in its fifth month — continues, Rystad said.
Price differentials between Brent and other crude streams have widened considerably and Brent is currently trading at a premium to almost all other crude streams.
However, Russia’s crude production has proven “surprisingly resilient” to the effects of sanctions, Rystad said. It continued to export crude at pre-conflict levels, following a huge drop in April, while refinery runs and oil output remain strong.
“While the sanctions are likely to hit revenue, oil production has remained higher than expected, demonstrating that Russia’s upstream sector has adapted quickly to sanctions on sales,” Ms Melnik said.
Rystad has revised up Russian crude production for 2022, adding almost 700,000 barrels per day to the previous forecast of 8.7 million bpd.
Crude exports from Russia continued to grow in May and stayed above 5 million bpd in “marked contrast to a widely held belief that exports would fall due to Europe’s deepening cuts to imports”, Rystad said.
Russia has managed to successfully redirect more volume to Asia, primarily China and India.
Refinery runs in Russia also began to recover in May. While Rystad previously expected refinery runs to drop significantly, actual volumes increased by 135,000 bpd to a little more than 5 million bpd.
In June, refinery runs showed an unprecedented growth by 700,000 bpd, driven by higher demand for oil products inside the country.
Company profile
Name: GiftBag.ae
Based: Dubai
Founded: 2011
Number of employees: 4
Sector: E-commerce
Funding: Self-funded to date
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Freezer tips
- Always make sure food is completely cool before freezing.
- If you’re cooking in large batches, divide into either family-sized or individual portions to freeze.
- Ensure the food is well wrapped in foil or cling film. Even better, store in fully sealable, labelled containers or zip-lock freezer bags.
- The easiest and safest way to defrost items such as the stews and sauces mentioned is to do so in the fridge for several hours or overnight.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
'Ashkal'
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
THE BIO
Occupation: Specialised chief medical laboratory technologist
Age: 78
Favourite destination: Always Al Ain “Dar Al Zain”
Hobbies: his work - “ the thing which I am most passionate for and which occupied all my time in the morning and evening from 1963 to 2019”
Other hobbies: football
Favorite football club: Al Ain Sports Club
The finalists
Player of the Century, 2001-2020: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Ronaldinho
Coach of the Century, 2001-2020: Pep Guardiola (Manchester City), Jose Mourinho (Tottenham Hotspur), Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid), Sir Alex Ferguson
Club of the Century, 2001-2020: Al Ahly (Egypt), Bayern Munich (Germany), Barcelona (Spain), Real Madrid (Spain)
Player of the Year: Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
Club of the Year: Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Coach of the Year: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta), Hans-Dieter Flick (Bayern Munich), Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Agent of the Century, 2001-2020: Giovanni Branchini, Jorge Mendes, Mino Raiola
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 480hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 570Nm from 2,300-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.4L/100km
Price: from Dh547,600
On sale: now
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
The biog
Profession: Senior sports presenter and producer
Marital status: Single
Favourite book: Al Nabi by Jibran Khalil Jibran
Favourite food: Italian and Lebanese food
Favourite football player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Languages: Arabic, French, English, Portuguese and some Spanish
Website: www.liliane-tannoury.com
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
Wednesday's results
Finland 3-0 Armenia
Faroes Islands 1-0 Malta
Sweden 1-1 Spain
Gibraltar 2-3 Georgia
Romania 1-1 Norway
Greece 2-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Liechtenstein 0-5 Italy
Switzerland 2-0 Rep of Ireland
Israel 3-1 Latvia
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Mobile phone packages comparison
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THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
SCHEDULE
December 8: UAE v USA (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 9: USA v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 11: UAE v Scotland (Sharjah Cricket Stadium)
December 12: UAE v USA (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 14: USA v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
December 15: UAE v Scotland (ICC Academy Oval 1)
All matches start at 10am
Pakistan v New Zealand Test series
Pakistan: Sarfraz (c), Hafeez, Imam, Azhar, Sohail, Shafiq, Azam, Saad, Yasir, Asif, Abbas, Hassan, Afridi, Ashraf, Hamza
New Zealand: Williamson (c), Blundell, Boult, De Grandhomme, Henry, Latham, Nicholls, Ajaz, Raval, Sodhi, Somerville, Southee, Taylor, Wagner
Umpires: Bruce Oxerford (AUS) and Ian Gould (ENG); TV umpire: Paul Reiffel (AUS); Match referee: David Boon (AUS)
Tickets and schedule: Entry is free for all spectators. Gates open at 9am. Play commences at 10am
