Opec+, the super group of oil producers, agreed to stick to its output plan of adding 648,000 barrels per day of crude to the market in August as supply remains tight, amid mounting fears of a global recession and increasing geopolitical tensions that could dent demand.
The group, which earlier this month agreed to increase its July and August output by about 50 per cent, took the decision during an online meeting on Thursday.
The move came “in view of current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook”, it said in a statement.
Opec+ also confirmed that it will meet again on August 3 to discuss market dynamics.
The producers’ alliance agreed in its June 2 meeting to bring an additional 216,000 bpd on top of the scheduled 432,000 bpd coming to the market in July and August amid a supply crunch and demand for crude staying at pre-pandemic levels.
Growing uncertainties about the global economic outlook and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have added to oil price volatility in recent weeks.
The latest output increase fully restores the 5.8 million bpd output that was cut during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The current Opec+ agreement on production adjustments is due to end in September this year and from then on group members can adjust their output in line with their view of market conditions.
However, the critical question is what the group will do after August, and the market is closely watching any discussions on crude output in September and beyond, said Edward Bell, senior director, Market Economics at Emirates NBD, and Thirumalai Nagesh, an economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
“Given the commentary from Opec+ ministers over the last several months, we would expect further co-operation to persist after September, even if a formal integration of core Opec and Opec+ countries is still viewed as unnecessary,” Mr Bell said.
“While the prospect of Opec+ producing at full tilt post-September may be welcomed by a global economy reeling from currently high energy inflation, there is a major difference between what can be agreed and what can actually be achieved,” he added.
Oil prices have remained volatile this year as Russia’s military assault on Ukraine continues. Global recession fears have pulled prices down from their recent highs of more than $123 per barrel.
Oil is heading for its first monthly loss since November, but prices are still more than 45 per cent higher than at the beginning of this year.
Brent, the global benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was trading 0.15 per cent lower at $116.08 per barrel at 5.02pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, fell 0.51 per cent to $109.22 a barrel.
However, improving demand in China, the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest importer of energy, is an encouraging sign for the market.
Earlier this month, Opec maintained its forecast that world oil demand would exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022, but said Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine, developments related to the pandemic and inflationary pressures posed a “considerable risk”.
The group maintained oil demand forecast for this year at 3.36 million bpd, unchanged from the previous month's forecast. Global oil consumption in 2022 is projected to average 100.29 million bpd, with demand exceeding 2019 levels by 0.09 million bpd, according to Opec estimates.
Economic uncertainty, however, is mounting around the world amid rising inflation that could affect crude demand.
In April, the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 3.6 per cent from its previous estimate of 4.4 per cent in January. The World Bank also slashed its growth forecast for the global economy for the second time this year.
On the supply side, the market remains tight amid falling crude inventories and limited capacity of Opec+ producers to boost production.
Crude inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week to June 24, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 569,000-barrel drop, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
Suhail Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, earlier this month said oil prices could go even higher as demand in China is likely to recover significantly and Opec+ doesn’t have enough production capacity.
Opec+ was running 2.6 million barrels a day short of its production target, he told the Middle East and North Africa-Europe Future Energy Dialogue in Jordan.
Earlier this week, Mr Al Mazrouei said that the UAE, Opec's third-largest oil producer, is producing close to its maximum oil capacity based on the Opec+ baseline.
The country, which holds about 6 per cent of the world's crude reserves, is producing 3.168 million bpd of oil and is committed to its targets “until the end of the agreement”, he said, in response to recent media reports that claimed some Opec+ producers have spare production capacity.
Underinvestment in the energy industry in a tight market has also contributed to inflating oil prices.
“Globally, we’re running on extremely thin spare capacity — both crude and oil products. Opec+ is mulling firing its last crude production bullets as it runs out of capacity to pump more, whilst refining capacity for oil products (such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel), which drives the real economy, has declined markedly,” Ehsan Khoman, head of Emerging Markets Research for EMEA at MUFG Bank, said.
While the prospect of Opec+ producing at full tilt post-September may be welcomed by a global economy reeling from currently high energy inflation, there is a major difference between what can be agreed and what can actually be achieved
Edward Bell,
senior director, Market Economics, Emirates NBD
Opec+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been shepherding crude markets since 2016 and achieved a historic reduction of 9.7 million bpd between May 2020 and July 2021.
However, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February, the alliance has maintained that the volatility in oil markets was not being caused by fundamentals and blamed higher prices on geopolitical factors beyond the group’s control.
The EU — along with the UK, the US and its allies — has been penalising Russia for its military assault in Ukraine. Earlier this month, the EU approved the sixth round of sanctions against Moscow that aims to eliminate most of its oil exports to the bloc by the end of this year.
Russia is the world's largest energy exporter behind Saudi Arabia, accounting for about 10 per cent of the world’s energy output, including 17 per cent of its natural gas and 12 per cent of its oil.
“Opec countries struggled to meet their production targets last month, pumping around 3 million barrels less per day than their 42 million [bpd] target,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“This means that the supply problems will remain the major headline in [the] oil [market], and the prices will likely push higher unless the recession fears take the upper hand.”
Mr Nagesh of ADCB said: “the actual Russian oil flows to the global economy are also likely to play a critical role in shaping the group output for September and the fourth quarter of 2022".
“We believe that Russia will remain part of the Opec+ agreement, although it could be exempted from the output quotas amidst the imposed sanctions,” he said.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E153hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E200Nm%20at%204%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6.3L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh106%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%209
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%20%E2%80%93%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%20%E2%80%93%20396%20x%20484%3B%20always-on%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%202000%20nits%20max%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%20(aluminium%20cases)%2C%20sapphire%20crystal%20(stainless%20steel%20cases)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S9%2064-bit%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%202nd-gen%20Ultra%20Wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2064GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Blood%20oxygen%20sensor%2C%20electrical%20heart%20sensor%20and%20ECG%2C%203rd-gen%20optical%20heart%20sensor%2C%20high%20and%20low%20heart%20rate%20notifications%2C%20irregular%20rhythm%20notifications%2C%20sleep%20stages%2C%20temperature%20sensing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEmergency%20services%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%2C%20crash%20detection%2C%20fall%20detection%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%20regular%2F36h%20low%20power%3B%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20pink%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%209%2C%20woven%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C719%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
More on Quran memorisation:
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Suarez 27', Vidal 32', Dembele 35', Messi 78')
Sevilla 0
Red cards: Ronald Araujo, Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
The five types of long-term residential visas
Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:
Investors:
A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.
Entrepreneurs:
A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.
Specialists
Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.
Outstanding students:
A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university.
Retirees:
Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
%20Ramez%20Gab%20Min%20El%20Akher
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Brraq, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Jean-Claude Pecout (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Taamol, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Eqtiraan, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Soft Whisper, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Etisalat, Sando Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYodawy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarim%20Khashaba%2C%20Sherief%20El-Feky%20and%20Yasser%20AbdelGawad%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2424.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlgebra%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20MEVP%20and%20Delivery%20Hero%20Ventures%2C%20among%20others%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
