Oil bulls are starting to picture a world in which China, the engine of demand growth, comes back to the market.
And if their analysis is right, the summer is going to be painful for oil consumers everywhere who’re already facing spiralling prices — whether that’s Americans paying about $5 a gallon for petrol, or the British spending more than £100 ($125) to fill a regular car.
In China, renewed restrictions in Shanghai point to a bumpy path ahead, but the world’s biggest crude importer is tentatively emerging from its latest battle with the coronavirus. That is set to add consumption to a market that has traded around $120 a barrel for its longest period in years with little help from China.
“I’ve never seen this combination of circumstances in my career over the last 50 years,” said Gary Ross, an oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors.
“The world has very little spare capacity, the economy is strong outside of China, China is now coming back and we’re in the midst of a global oil interruption.”
Opec+ officials said this week there is little extra supply they can add, while similar constraints within the global fleet of oil refineries has consumers facing fuel prices that are rising faster than crude.
Several countries have announced embargoes on Russia, one of the world’s largest producers, following its military invasion of Ukraine. That is disrupting available supplies of crude and fuels. Consumption of refined products has been outpacing production, further eroding inventories.
Much of Wall Street shares the bullish take. This week, Goldman Sachs Group said it expects Brent to peak at $140 a barrel in the coming months. Morgan Stanley said its most bullish scenario of $150 could be moved higher. The record for Brent is $147.50, set in July 2008.
China National Petroleum estimates the country’s consumption could jump by 12 per cent in the third quarter. Bank of China International said it expects a modest recovery in the third quarter, and a stronger fourth.
“We are at $120 without China, so when China comes back, oil is going to go higher,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects, said at a conference in Calgary.
“Even with high prices, demand is continuing because people, they want to travel, they want to get out. And the second thing is that governments around the world are subsidising prices.”
Those subsidies — or reduced taxation — are boosting demand in countries from Mexico to South Africa. That is one reason why oil prices have held up despite US gasoline futures already trading close to $180 a barrel.
Russia is a major supplier of refined products, most notably diesel, where wholesale prices in Europe are around $170. The premium of both diesel and gasoline over crude has hit a record this year in the US and Europe, with fuel stockpiles low going into summer.
Some of the market’s leading policy figures agree that the world does not currently have enough refining capacity.
Amos Hochstein, the US State Department’s senior adviser for energy security, told an RBC Capital Markets conference this week that underinvestment in the energy space and a downwards trend in refining capacity have been key contributors to the shortage of fuels, echoing a view held by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister.
The US government has even asked the refining industry about firing up mothballed plants again.
What all this means is that, despite the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies pledging to increase output by more than expected this month, there is little sign for now that such moves — if they do happen — would derail the rampantly bullish market.
Opec secretary general Mohammad Barkindo said this week only two or three of the group’s members have room to increase output.
Even with some parts of Shanghai heading back into Covid-19 restriction, traders believe that an eventual pickup in consumption will come in an oil market where production is, for now, largely tapped out.
For consumers, that is especially risky before summer, when refined product consumption rises thanks to travel and air conditioning demand.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP5
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Main%20%E2%80%93%206.7%22%20FHD%2B%20Dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%202640%20x%201080%2C%2022%3A9%2C%20425ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20up%20to%20120Hz%3B%20cover%20%E2%80%93%203%2F4%22%20Super%20Amoled%2C%20720%20x%20748%2C%20306ppi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%20Gen%202%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3B%20Adreno%20740%20GPU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20256%2F512GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2013%2C%20One%20UI%205.1.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%20wide%20(f%2F1.8)%2C%20OIS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%4030%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%4060%2F240fps%2C%20HD%40960fps%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010MP%20(f%2F2.2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203700mAh%2C%2025W%20fast%20charging%2C%2015W%20wireless%2C%204.5W%20reverse%20wireless%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Samsung%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano-SIM%20%2B%20eSIM%3B%20no%20microSD%20slot%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cream%2C%20graphite%2C%20lavender%2C%20mint%3B%20Samsung.com%20exclusives%20%E2%80%93%20blue%2C%20grey%2C%20green%2C%20yellow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Flip%204%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh3%2C899%20%2F%20Dh4%2C349%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
The years Ramadan fell in May
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
How tumultuous protests grew
- A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
- Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved
- Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
- At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
- Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars
- Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
- An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More on animal trafficking
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
UAE v United States, T20 International Series
Both matches at ICC Academy, Dubai. Admission is free.
1st match: Friday, 2pm
2nd match: Saturday, 2pm
UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Amjad Gul, CP Rizwan, Mohammed Boota, Abdul Shakoor, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Amir Hayat
USA squad: Saurabh Netravalkar (captain), Jaskaran Malhotra, Elmore Hutchinson, Aaron Jones, Nosthush Kenjige, Ali Khan, Jannisar Khan, Xavier Marshall, Monank Patel, Timil Patel, Roy Silva, Jessy Singh, Steven Taylor, Hayden Walsh
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
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