Opec+ is meeting on Thursday amid a rapidly changing energy market, with the producer group reportedly considering exempting Moscow from its production deal and as the EU agree on a partial ban of Russian oil imports.
Prospects of China’s economic activity revival are also brightening with the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions, a move that could have a telling effect on global crude demand.
There will be a lot for the group to consider when it convenes online. However, given the output capacity restraints of its 23 members, the alliance is expected to stick to its output plan and add 432,000 barrels a day of crude to the market in July.
“We expect Opec+ to keep its output policy steady,” said Thirumalai Nagesh, an economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
“The group's production has been consistently lower than the planned increase as a number of countries are struggling to supply their allotted quotas.”
The Opec+ undersupply picture is “quite stark” and the group should have collectively returned 7.4 million bpd of the original 9.7 million bpd of supply cuts by April, a National Bank of Kuwait report said.
However, it has managed to return 4.7 million bpd of that target to the market, the NBK report said.
The group had planned to increase monthly supply by a combined 432,000 bpd from May but, “given the preponderance of supply outages and limited spare capacity”, there is little likelihood of that, said Omar Al Nakib, senior economist at NBK.
“Only the Gulf Arab oil exporters appear able to post production gains,” he said.
For several months, Opec+ has worked to bring back crude supply that was greatly reduced after the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, achieved a historic reduction of 9.7 million bpd between May 2020 and July 2021.
Opec+ has been shepherding oil markets since 2016.
However, a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday suggested that Opec+ members are exploring the idea of exempting Russia from its deal, perhaps opening the door for other producers with spare capacity to increase oil production.
Russia is the world's largest energy exporter behind Saudi Arabia, accounting for about 10 per cent of the world’s energy output, including 17 per cent of its natural gas and 12 per cent of its oil.
Moscow is facing a tightening net of western sanctions in response to its military operation in Ukraine.
In April, about 1.5 million bpd of Russian output was expected to be shut-in, according to the International Energy Agency.
From May onwards, the agency said it expected about 3 million bpd of Russian production to be offline because of international sanctions and a widening customer-driven embargo.
“The next 36 hours in oil markets are looking rather tasty from a volatility point of view, despite already seeing huge overnight session ranges,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Oanda.
“The Opec+ meeting, based on the WSJ article, has now transformed from the monthly business-as-usual event, to a potential structural turning point for oil markets.”
Oil prices retreated on Wednesday on the Russia-Opec+ news. After shooting to above $123 a barrel on Tuesday, Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was at $117.40 a barrel at 1pm UAE time.
West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading at $116.50 a barrel.
Brent's ascent on Tuesday was the highest since rising close to $140 in March.
Prices have rallied after the EU agreed to ban most of Russia's oil imports by the end of the year. The partial ban raises concerns about a tighter market amid higher demand expectations in the summer.
“The good news is that the knee-jerk reaction in crude oil to the European ban of Russian oil imports remained capped near the $120 mark,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
“US crude couldn’t find buyers above the $120 psychological mark, and the latest rally got investors to hurriedly take profit, as a sign that above this level, the concerns about the negative impact on demand take over — despite the news that Shanghai is free after a two-month lockdown.”
China, the world’s second-largest economy and biggest importer of energy, has begun to ease Covid-19 restrictions, which could potentially change demand dynamics.
As the rate of Covid-19 infections continues to decline, China plans to reopen shopping malls and shops from Wednesday in Shanghai, the country’s commercial centre, brightening the prospects for its economy.
The EU ban on Russian energy imports and improving demand prospects linked to China’s economic revival raise questions on supply dynamics in an already tight market, said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade.
“Supply is a major concern and the fact that the EU is prepared to move away from Russian oil, traders are concerned how the supply-and-demand equation will come to a level under which we could see oil prices back below the $100 price level,” Mr Aslam said.
“For now, it is very much clear that oil prices are likely to remain high for an extended period as Opec+ is [in] no mood to pump extra oil supply.”
Since the beginning of the Ukraine war in February, the Opec+ alliance has maintained that the volatility in oil markets was not being caused by fundamentals and that higher oil prices were a result of geopolitical developments.
“The Opec+ argument that oil markets are currently distorted by geopolitical risks is not wrong,” said Edward Bell, senior director, market economics at Emirates NBD.
“Sanctions from the US, the UK and others on Russian crude and trade in Russian commodities are non-fundamental factors affecting markets, and are not, in and of themselves, endogenous to oil and commodity markets.”
However, they have a material impact on fundamentals with Russian oil output and exports of crude and products declining, he said.
Moving forward, the loss of Russian supply, a move by Opec to maintain production levels and the reopening of China will “likely throw a floor under any sell-off in oil prices, and should keep the downside potential limited”, Ms Ozkardeskaya said.
“The major support to the actual rally is the 50-DMA [day moving average] level, a touch below $107 per barrel.”
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Aahid Al Khalediah II, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Whistle, Harry Bentley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup - Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Alsaied, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Emirates Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Mumayaza, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Emirates Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: President’s Cup – Group 1 (PA) Dh2,500,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: President’s Cup – Listed (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Medahim, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Florida: The critical Sunshine State
Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
The%20specs
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The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
