A worker standing near an oil pump jack. Oil prices have remained volatile in recent weeks. Alamy
A worker standing near an oil pump jack. Oil prices have remained volatile in recent weeks. Alamy
A worker standing near an oil pump jack. Oil prices have remained volatile in recent weeks. Alamy
A worker standing near an oil pump jack. Oil prices have remained volatile in recent weeks. Alamy

Oil prices rise as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to stoke supply concerns


Sarmad Khan
  • English
  • Arabic

Oil prices notched a weekly gain as supply deficit took centre stage with the EU considering a potential curb on Russian oil imports.

Brent, the global benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil, settled 2.68 per cent higher at $111.70 a barrel at the close of trading on Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, closed 2.59 per cent higher at $106.95 a barrel.

This marked the first weekly gain this month for both benchmarks in the holiday shortened week.

A New York Times report on Thursday suggested the EU was edging close to cutting Russian oil imports in a phased manner that will give Germany and others time to line up alternative suppliers for their energy needs.

Russia's oil supply is expected to decline further amid sanctions by the US and its allies as Moscow continues its military offensive in Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). So far in April, about 700,000 barrels per day of production has been shut-in and losses are likely to grow to 1.5 million bpd for the entire month.

From May onwards, close to 3 million bpd of Russian production could be offline due to international sanctions and as a widening customer-driven embargo comes into full force, the IEA said last week.

The apparent gradual ban on Russian oil imports will be “adding more tightening pressure to oil markets”, Khatija Haque, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD, said in research note on Friday.

Russia is the world's second-largest energy exporter. It accounts for about 10 per cent of the world’s energy output, including 17 per cent of its natural gas and 12 per cent of its oil. The US and UK have already banned Russian oil imports.

The oil market has seen tumultuous trading since Russia’s war in Ukraine started in late February. Volatility in crude prices during the past few weeks has been at the highest level since June 2020.

Brent price, which rose 67 per cent last year, climbed to a notch under $140 per barrel in March. It fell briefly under the $100 per barrel mark, but recovered quickly.

Earlier this month, IEA member countries agreed to release a total of 120 million barrels of oil from their emergency stockpile to tackle soaring oil prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine. Half of the total amount will come from the US and the rest from other agency members.

This is on top of the 120 million barrels the US plans to release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will bring total additional supply to the market to 240 million barrels worldwide.

The co-ordinated action by the IEA and the US has weighed down prices, however, the release of additional inventory is already priced in.

“The flirtation below $100 [per barrel] didn't last long as the slight lifting of [Covid-19] restrictions in China partly removed one key downside risk for prices. With the IEA reserve release priced in, that leaves the risks heavily tilted to the upside,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst, UK and EMEA, at Oanda, said.

“That could leave Brent prices ranging between $100 and $120 [a barrel] for now, with WTI more like $95-$115 [a barrel range].”

There's no “shortage of risks” to that assessment and the market remains “incredibly headline-driven”, Mr Erlam said.

“The prospect of Finland and Sweden joining the Nato alliance is unlikely to ease tensions between Russia and the West, which could further spill over into the oil market.”

Getting%20there
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Andy Murray - hip

Novak Djokovic - elbow

Roger Federer - back

Stan Wawrinka - knee

Kei Nishikori - wrist

Marin Cilic - adductor

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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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The specs

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How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
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What are the regulations?
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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

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The Outsider

Stephen King, Penguin

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.

The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.

“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.

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Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.

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Know your Camel lingo

The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home

Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless

Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers

Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s

Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival

Updated: April 17, 2022, 7:28 AM`