Oil prices could soar to $240 a barrel by this summer if other western countries join the US and the UK in banning the import of Russia energy products, Rystad Energy has said.
Prices rallied late on Tuesday after the announcement of the British and American ban on importing Russian oil, but remained within the same range on Wednesday.
Brent, the global benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was 3.31 per cent lower at $123.8 a barrel at 3.37pm UAE time on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, fell 3.35 per cent to $119.6.
Oil prices are up almost 100 per cent since last year and rallied more than 25 per cent since the start of this year, driven by a faster-than-expected economic recovery, but also years of underinvestment in the energy industry after prices collapsed in 2014, which has restricted the output capacity of some producers. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shaken markets further and the surge in energy prices could send the global economy into a recession.
"This is the largest energy crisis in decades and the impact on the world’s most important commodity is going to be unprecedented," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy.
"Market volatility is at an all-time high, with prices surging on the expectation that supply will further tighten due to restrictive sanctions on Russian energy."
Additional sanctions from western countries on Russia, the world's second-largest energy exporter, would lead to a 4.3 million barrels per day gap in the market, which cannot be quickly replaced by other sources of supply. That would create the largest potential oil supply shortage since the First Gulf War, when oil prices doubled, Mr Tonhaugen said.
That will lead to a surge in prices that "destroy sufficient demand and incentivise a supply response through higher activity – both of which happen with a time lag of several months – to rebalance the market at a higher supply/demand/price intersection", he said.
Brent hit a record high of $147.02 on July 11, 2008 amid the global financial crisis, while WTI rose to $146.90 the same day.
"If 4.3 million bpd of Russian oil exports to the West are halted by April 2022, and where China and India only keep current import levels intact, Brent would need to spike to $240 per barrel by the summer of 2022 to destroy demand," Mr Tonhaugen said.
After the move by Washington and London on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that restricts the import and export of specified goods and raw materials, according to lists determined by the Russian government, which will be in effect until the end of this year, Interfax news agency said. No further details were provided.
A day earlier, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, warned Moscow retains the option to cut natural gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that runs through Ukraine, if the EU bans its crude imports.
Russia supplies about 40 per cent of Europe's gas, while its crude accounts for about 3 per cent of US oil imports, equal to about 200,000 barrels a day.
Mr Novak also gave a warning that oil prices could exceed $300 a barrel if the EU follows in the footsteps of the US and the UK, forcing Moscow to retaliate.
In Houston, Texas, at the energy industry's CeraWeek conference, Occidental chief executive Vicki Hollub said oil may reach $150 a barrel due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
"It is clear that oil prices will continue to rise until they reach an unsustainable level that curtails demand," Mr Tonhaugen said.
"The higher prices go, the larger the chances of the global economy entering a recession already in the fourth quarter of 2022. Oil at $240 per barrel would trigger a global recession and self-destruct the price level within just a few months, after which prices would fall sharply."
Gold, the precious metal that is a traditional safe haven and hedge against inflation, rallied to $2,076.0 an ounce on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade. It receded on Wednesday but remains elevated at $2,002 at 5.36pm UAE time.
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D5pm%3A%20Al%20Maha%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alfahem%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%20(jockey)%2C%20Ernst%20Oetrel%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Al%20Anoud%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Musannef%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Rasam%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Arabian%20Triple%20Crown%20Round%202%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh%20300%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Joe%20Star%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Helal%20Al%20Alawi%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Liwa%20Oasis%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(PA)%20Dh300%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alajaj%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Dames%20Stables%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Silent%20Defense%2C%20Oscar%20Chavez%2C%20Rashed%20Bouresly%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
The biog
Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates
Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.
Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.
Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.
Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile
Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran
Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
The biog
Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:
- Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
- He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
- There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
- After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
- In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Match info
Karnataka Tuskers 110-3
J Charles 35, M Pretorius 1-19, Z Khan 0-16
Deccan Gladiators 111-5 in 8.3 overs
K Pollard 45*, S Zadran 2-18
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Ultra processed foods
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
