Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
Historically, a surge in crude oil prices of this magnitude have ended US economic expansions and tipped America's economy into recession, according to Pictet Asset Management.
In the past 50 years, every time oil prices, adjusted for inflation, rose 50 per cent above trend, a recession followed, data from Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet, shows.
Brent, the international gauge for oil prices, climbed well above $110 a barrel this week, crossing that threshold on worries about disruption to Russia’s exports after it invaded Ukraine.
Brent has rallied around 50 per cent this year to top $118, trading around decade highs. Futures in New York rose by more than $24 this week alone, the highest weekly dollar increase on record.
Fear is already playing out in the stock market as the war rekindled inflation concerns and clouded the outlook for corporate profits.
The S&P 500 Energy Sector has been one of the few bright spots, continuing its reign as the top performing group in the index, up 35 per cent in 2022.
Oil and gas companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have posted double-digit gains this year, benefiting from a rise in oil prices.
But investors question how long the strength in energy stocks will last, as the group is now the third-most shorted industry on the S&P 500, with short sellers betting that the oil boom will soon be over.
“I don’t expect an economic disaster, but what we’re seeing in oil prices will have a significant impact on growth,” Mr Paolini said.
To be sure, oil price shocks have ended economic expansions like those in the mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. But other downturns were not directly caused by a sharp rise in oil prices, like the 2001 recession and the global financial crisis.
I don’t expect an economic disaster, but what we’re seeing in oil prices will have a significant impact on growth
Luca Paolini,
chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management
Few economists say the US is in danger of recession since the economy is underpinned by a strong labour market, solid consumer spending and better-than-expected corporate profits.
But many expect growth to slow further if inflation continues to rise. The war in Ukraine has injected further volatility into markets just as the Federal Reserve enters a rate rise cycle.
“The best thing for markets is for the Fed to lift rates gently and adjust policy in case the war in Ukraine evolves in the wrong way,” Mr Paolini said.
“Waiting to raise rates would be the wrong thing to do because the economy could suffer significantly if inflation rises even further.”
ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
6 UNDERGROUND
Director: Michael Bay
Stars: Ryan Reynolds, Adria Arjona, Dave Franco
2.5 / 5 stars
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
FORSPOKEN
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Starfield
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Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company%20profile
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What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Messi 23' pen, 45 1', 48', Busquets 85')
Celta Vigo 1 (Olaza 42')
More on Quran memorisation:
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
England v South Africa schedule:
- First Test: At Lord's, England won by 219 runs
- Second Test: July 14-18, Trent Bridge, Nottingham, 2pm
- Third Test: The Oval, London, July 27-31, 2pm
- Fourth Test: Old Trafford, Manchester, August 4-8
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
RESULT
Manchester City 1 Sheffield United 0
Man City: Jesus (9')
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
