The Opec+ group of oil producers is scheduled to meet on Wednesday as crude edges towards $100 per barrel amid simmering geopolitical tension and an already tight market.
Brent, the global benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, was up 1.31 per cent at $91.21 per barrel at 4.39am UAE time on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was trading 0.36 per cent higher at $88.47 per barrel.
The rise in geopolitical tension over the past few weeks in eastern Europe related to Russia and the Ukraine has fuelled the oil rally. The Pentagon has placed 8,500 US troops on high alert after Russia stationed thousands of troops along the border with Ukraine.
Russia further boosted its troop presence at its border with the Ukraine over the weekend as US politicians reached an agreement to ensure legislation on Russian sanctions is passed by the Senate this week.
The jostling and possible escalation could disrupt global flow of energy supplies as “geopolitical risk premium makes a sharp comeback into the market,” said Suvro Sarkar, head of regional energy research at DBS Bank.
“In the unfortunate event of war, we expect Brent crude oil prices could breach $100 per barrel and even $110 per barrel as Russia is major oil and gas exporter.”
In early January, Opec and its allies decided to stay the course and said they will bring 400,000 barrels per day of crude to the market in February despite demand concerns owing to the increase in Omicron coronavirus infections worldwide.
The 23-member group of the oil producers has a different set of circumstances to contend with when they gather online on February 2 to access the market supply and demand.
“For markets, of particular interest would be any mention of the ongoing geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia,” said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Dubai-based Century Financial.
However, it is unlikely supply side scenarios in the extreme case of a war and subsequent oil shocks will be discussed at the forthcoming meeting, Mr Sarkar said.
Demand for crude amid continued global economic recovery has led Opec+ to steadily increase supply over the past few months. The broader market consensus is that the producer group is unlikely to deviate from its policy.
“Our base case is for Opec+ to stick to script and hike production by 0.4 million bpd for March deliveries,” said Ehsan Khoman, director of emerging markets research for Emea at MUFG Bank.
Mr Valecha agreed, saying “despite any lingering downside threats from the pandemic and hawkish Fed, Opec+ is unlikely to make any radical changes to its policy decision”.
Despite bringing extra barrels to the market crude has rallied, recording six consecutive weekly gains to trade at a seven-year high. Oil prices have already climbed more than 10 per cent this year. They rose more than 67 per cent last year amid sustained demand despite coronavirus-driven challenges.
In the unfortunate event of war, we expect Brent crude oil prices could breach $100 per barrel and even $110 per barrel as Russia is major oil and gas exporter
Suvro Sarkar,
head of regional energy research, DBS Bank
Restrained production from Opec+ is also pushing oil prices higher.
“Markets, however, will be closely monitoring the increasing deviation between planned and actual production levels amongst the group,” Mr Khoman said.
Hitting that target may “prove a challenge given that several countries have considerably underperformed their targets recently”, Dubai’s biggest lender Emirates NBD said in a note.
Top banks and oil companies have already forecast crude may soon pass $100 per barrel, partially driven by oil producers' inability to hit their planned supply output increases in full in recent months.
Under-investment in oil and gas production over the past few years has hindered producers the ability of oil producers to increase output at short notice.
Brent may "overshoot" $125 per barrel this year and $150 in 2023, since Opec's spare capacity is below market expectations and impedes its ability to respond to high oil prices, JP Morgan said in December.
“The supply impetus that could calm markets and quell the demand for more production will need to come from Opec+ and be steered by the member with the largest spare capacity”, according to Rystad Energy.
Looking ahead, oil is set to remain in “boisterous form”, which is underpinned by a powerful bull market, with a clear upside risks to fourth quarter 2022 Brent forecast of $92 per barrel and WTI projection of $89 per barrel, MUFG said.
“A confluence of resilient demand, depleting inventories, thinning spare capacity amid a dearth of structural investment, long investor positioning and lingering geopolitical tension, is carving out an acute scarcity premium,” Mr Khoman said.
“The prospect of triple-digit oil prices before 2022 … is already coming into view.”
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ogram%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Kouatly%20and%20Shafiq%20Khartabil%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20On-demand%20staffing%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2050%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMore%20than%20%244%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20round%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EGlobal%20Ventures%2C%20Aditum%20and%20Oraseya%20Capital%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Film: Raid
Dir: Rajkumar Gupta
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Ileana D'cruz and Saurabh Shukla
Verdict: Three stars
The%20Killer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Fincher%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Fassbender%2C%20Tilda%20Swinton%2C%20Charles%20Parnell%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Pakistan 106-8 (20 ovs)
Iftikhar 45, Richardson 3-18
Australia 109-0 (11.5 ovs)
Warner 48 no, Finch 52 no
Australia win series 2-0
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m, Winner SS Lamea, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m, Winner AF Makerah, Sean Kirrane, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m, Winner Maaly Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,600m, Winner AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m, Winner Morjanah Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,200m, Winner Mudarrab, Jim Crowley, Erwan Charpy
The Details
Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5
The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Meghan%20podcast
%3Cp%3EMeghan%20Markle%2C%20the%20wife%20of%20Prince%20Harry%2C%20launched%20her%20long-awaited%20podcast%20Tuesday%2C%20with%20tennis%20megastar%20Serena%20Williams%20as%20the%20first%20guest.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20Duchess%20of%20Sussex%20said%20the%2012-part%20series%2C%20called%20%22Archetypes%2C%22%20--%20a%20play%20on%20the%20name%20of%20the%20couple's%20oldest%20child%2C%20Archie%20--%20would%20explore%20the%20female%20experience.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELast%20year%20the%20couple%20told%20Oprah%20Winfrey%20that%20life%20inside%20%22The%20Firm%22%20had%20been%20miserable%2C%20and%20that%20they%20had%20experienced%20racism.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%22I%20don't%20ever%20remember%20personally%20feeling%20the%20negative%20connotation%20behind%20the%20word%20ambitious%2C%20until%20I%20started%20dating%20my%20now-husband%2C%22%20she%20told%20the%20tennis%20champion.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
The bio
Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions
School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira
Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk
Dream City: San Francisco
Hometown: Dubai
City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
'Nope'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jordan%20Peele%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Keke%20Palmer%2C%20Brandon%20Perea%2C%20Steven%20Yeun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BOSH!'s pantry essentials
Nutritional yeast
This is Firth's pick and an ingredient he says, "gives you an instant cheesy flavour". He advises making your own cream cheese with it or simply using it to whip up a mac and cheese or wholesome lasagne. It's available in organic and specialist grocery stores across the UAE.
Seeds
"We've got a big jar of mixed seeds in our kitchen," Theasby explains. "That's what you use to make a bolognese or pie or salad: just grab a handful of seeds and sprinkle them over the top. It's a really good way to make sure you're getting your omegas."
Umami flavours
"I could say soya sauce, but I'll say all umami-makers and have them in the same batch," says Firth. He suggests having items such as Marmite, balsamic vinegar and other general, dark, umami-tasting products in your cupboard "to make your bolognese a little bit more 'umptious'".
Onions and garlic
"If you've got them, you can cook basically anything from that base," says Theasby. "These ingredients are so prevalent in every world cuisine and if you've got them in your cupboard, then you know you've got the foundation of a really nice meal."
Your grain of choice
Whether rice, quinoa, pasta or buckwheat, Firth advises always having a stock of your favourite grains in the cupboard. "That you, you have an instant meal and all you have to do is just chuck a bit of veg in."
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
RESULTS
Light Flyweight (48kg): Alua Balkibekova (KAZ) beat Gulasal Sultonalieva (UZB) by points 4-1.
Flyweight (51kg): Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) beat Mary Kom (IND) 3-2.
Bantamweight (54kg): Dina Zholaman (KAZ) beat Sitora Shogdarova (UZB) 3-2.
Featherweight (57kg): Sitora Turdibekova (UZB) beat Vladislava Kukhta (KAZ) 5-0.
Lightweight (60kg): Rimma Volossenko (KAZ) beat Huswatun Hasanah (INA) KO round-1.
Light Welterweight (64kg): Milana Safronova (KAZ) beat Lalbuatsaihi (IND) 3-2.
Welterweight (69kg): Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) beat Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) 5-0
Middleweight (75kg): Pooja Rani (IND) beat Mavluda Movlonova (UZB) 5-0.
Light Heavyweight (81kg): Farida Sholtay (KAZ) beat Ruzmetova Sokhiba (UZB) 5-0.
Heavyweight (81 kg): Lazzat Kungeibayeva (KAZ) beat Anupama (IND) 3-2.
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
The specs: 2019 Mini Cooper
Price, base: Dh141,740 (three-door) / Dh165,900 (five-door)
Engine: 1.5-litre four-cylinder (Cooper) / 2.0-litre four-cylinder (Cooper S)
Power: 136hp @ 4,500rpm (Cooper) / 192hp @ 5,000rpm (Cooper S)
Torque: 220Nm @ 1,480rpm (Cooper) / 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (Cooper S)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 4.8L to 5.4L / 100km
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
more from Janine di Giovanni
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Left Bank: Art, Passion and Rebirth of Paris 1940-1950
Agnes Poirer, Bloomsbury
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Tips%20for%20holiday%20homeowners
%3Cp%3EThere%20are%20several%20factors%20for%20landlords%20to%20consider%20when%20preparing%20to%20establish%20a%20holiday%20home%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3ERevenue%20potential%20of%20the%20unit%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20location%2C%20view%20and%20size%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%3A%20furnished%20or%20unfurnished.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Is%20the%20design%20up%20to%20standard%2C%20while%20being%20catchy%20at%20the%20same%20time%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20model%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20will%20it%20be%20managed%20by%20a%20professional%20operator%20or%20directly%20by%20the%20owner%2C%20how%20often%20does%20the%20owner%20wants%20to%20use%20it%20for%20personal%20reasons%3F%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuality%20of%20the%20operator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20guest%20reviews%2C%20customer%20experience%20management%2C%20application%20of%20technology%2C%20average%20utilisation%2C%20scope%20of%20services%20rendered%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Adam%20Nowak%2C%20managing%20director%20of%20Ultimate%20Stay%20Vacation%20Homes%20Rental%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sukuk
An Islamic bond structured in a way to generate returns without violating Sharia strictures on prohibition of interest.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari, Jonathan Cape
Donating your hair
• Your hair should be least 30 cms long, as some of the hair is lost during manufacturing of the wigs.
• Clean, dry hair in good condition (no split ends) from any gender, and of any natural colour, is required.
• Straight, wavy, curly, permed or chemically straightened is permitted.
• Dyed hair must be of a natural colour
Match info:
Wolves 1
Boly (57')
Manchester City 1
Laporte (69')
FIGHT CARD
From 5.30pm in the following order:
Featherweight
Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 90kg
Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)
Welterweight
Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)
Flyweight (women)
Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)
Catchweight 100kg
Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)
Featherweight
James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)
Welterweight
Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)
Middleweight
Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)
Bantamweight:
Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)
Welterweight
Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)
Bantamweight
Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)
Lightweight
Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)
Middleweight
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)
Lightweight
Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)
The specs: 2017 Dodge Viper SRT
Price, base / as tested Dh460,000
Engine 8.4L V10
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 645hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 813Nm @ 5,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 16.8L / 100km
