Oil at $100 a barrel cannot be ruled out in 2023 as supply additions are expected to be too slow to keep up with record demand, according to Goldman Sachs Group.
While the bank’s base forecast is for Brent to stay around $85 next year and 2023, it could breach triple digits through either higher cost inflation for drillers, or if an unexpected supply shortfall forces prices to spike high enough to destroy demand, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research.
The upside risks underscore why Goldman remains bullish on oil even after prices have rallied more than 40 per cent this year. The bank sees the recent sell-off as overdone on unnecessary concerns about Omicron-related restrictions and expects investors to buy the dip once asset managers reallocate money next year.
“There’s insufficient supply in the face of strong demand,” Mr Courvalin said in a call with reporters on Friday. “Oil prices have to be higher to overcome the higher cost of capital to fund projects.”
The recent $10 dip is the equivalent of pricing in a loss of five million barrels a day of demand for three months. That’s likely an overreaction, Mr Courvalin said, as governments seem to be responding to omicron with more testing than new lockdowns so far.
Longer term, output growth is being hit by challenges, including upstream cost inflation and more expensive financing as investors opt to support ESG-focused sectors, he said. Investments in long-cycle oil projects have also dipped due to uncertainties around energy transition and its impact on fuel usage.
There’s insufficient supply in the face of strong demand. Oil prices have to be higher to overcome the higher cost of capital to fund projects
Damien Courvalin,
head of energy research at Goldman Sachs
Demand for everything from gasoline, diesel and plastics is currently at a record level, with consumption expected to reach new highs in 2022 and 2023, he said. Use of jet fuel will continue to lag due to Covid-related travel restrictions, but some pent-up demand for travel is likely to emerge as borders reopen.
Demand is being supported by strong government capital expenditure, both to support the economic recovery from Covid-19 and to fund the energy transition needed to combat climate change. An increased focus on income inequality will also support commodities, as poorer people tend to spend a higher portion of their income on goods and energy.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
Student Of The Year 2
Director: Punit Malhotra
Stars: Tiger Shroff, Tara Sutaria, Ananya Pandey, Aditya Seal
1.5 stars
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
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Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
More from Aya Iskandarani
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WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Tour de France 2017: Stage 5
Vittel - La Planche de Belles Filles, 160.5km
It is a shorter stage, but one that will lead to a brutal uphill finish. This is the third visit in six editions since it was introduced to the race in 2012. Reigning champion Chris Froome won that race.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The bio
Who inspires you?
I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist
How do you relax?
Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.
What is favourite book?
The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times
What is your favourite Arabic film?
Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki
What is favourite English film?
Mamma Mia
Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?
If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
FIGHT CARD
Welterweight Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Tohir Zhuraev (TJK)
Catchweight 75kg Leandro Martins (BRA) v Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Flyweight Corinne Laframboise (CAN) v Manon Fiorot (FRA)
Featherweight Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB)
Lightweight Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) v Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG)
Featherweight Yousef Al Housani (UAE) v Mohamed Arsharq Ali (SLA)
Catchweight 69kg Jung Han-gook (KOR) v Elias Boudegzdame (ALG)
Catchweight 71kg Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
Featherweight title Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
Lightweight title Bruno Machado (BRA) v Mike Santiago (USA)
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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