Brent, the benchmark for more than half of the world’s crude oil, is likely to "overshoot" $125 a barrel next year and $150 in 2023, in large part because Opec's spare capacity is below market expectations and impedes its ability to respond to high oil prices, according to JPMorgan.
Underinvestment in the sector over the past 18 months caused by the coronavirus pandemic has hit the output capacity of many producer countries and their ability to respond to recovering oil demand, America's largest lender said in a report this week.
“For at least the next three to four years, the ability of Opec+ to respond to recovering oil demand is challenged,” Christyan Malek, JPMorgan's head of oil and gas research, and other analysts said in the report.
“Our analysis suggests that apart from a small group of nations with very sound plans, all other countries face risk from factors such as delayed capital investment plans due to the pandemic, tougher geology in new fields, increasingly complex fluid in new reservoirs and natural declines in core assets.”
The bank expects that Opec+’s spare capacity, a closely watched metric that measures the amount of barrels that can swiftly be added to the market, will be about 2 million barrels a day in 2022, which is 43 per cent below consensus estimates of 4.8 million bpd.
It anticipates the group’s total capacity shortfall increasing to 3 million bpd by the first half of 2024.
Leading analysts and industry executives have cited the lack of investments in the oil and gas sector.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and group chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, recently told the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference the global oil and gas industry requires more than $600 billion of investment annually until 2030.
"After almost a decade of underinvestment in our industry, the world has sleepwalked into a supply crunch. It is time to wake up," Dr Al Jaber said.
Longer-term oil prices of $80 a barrel are likely to be needed to spur the investment required to increase capacity as demand grows, and oil is likely to trade around this price from 2024, JPMorgan said.
Brent is expected to rise to $90 a barrel in 2022 with an upside scenario of $125 a barrel. In 2023, it is forecast to increase to $104 a barrel with the potential to rise to as much as $150 a barrel, the bank said.
Brent is up about 40 per cent year-to-date and trading at $72.20 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge which tracks US crude, has gained about 42 per cent since the start of the year and trading at $69.02 a barrel at 1.38pm UAE time on Wednesday.
JPMorgan highlighted the role of Opec+ in balancing oil markets and said the group has “returned to a position of positive leverage which it will defend by keeping inventories low, the market in balance and taking action to support optimal reservoir management through paced volume growth”.
The Opec+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, executed a historic reduction of 9.7 million bpd between May 2020 and July this year but has tapered the supply cuts as demand improved.
Opec+ agreed to increase output by 400,000 bpd in December, despite the pressure from the US to bring on additional supply. It stuck to its earlier agreement to bring a total supply of 2 million bpd back to markets by the end of the year.
“We think Opec+ will slow committed increases in early 2022, and believe the group is unlikely to increase supply unless oil prices are well underpinned, as this secures a balanced market which can tolerate future waves of Covid-related demand shocks,” JPMorgan said.
The policy will also give producer reservoirs "a breather" to improve the resilience of spare capacity, according to the investment bank.
The group is meeting on December 2 to review production levels. The meeting takes place as the Omicron coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa poses a challenge to oil demand growth, with some countries reimposing movement restrictions and suspending flights to contain the spread of the virus.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
The specs: 2018 BMW X2 and X3
Price, as tested: Dh255,150 (X2); Dh383,250 (X3)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged inline four-cylinder (X2); 3.0-litre twin-turbo inline six-cylinder (X3)
Power 192hp @ 5,000rpm (X2); 355hp @ 5,500rpm (X3)
Torque: 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (X2); 500Nm @ 1,520rpm (X3)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic (X2); Eight-speed automatic (X3)
Fuel consumption, combined: 5.7L / 100km (X2); 8.3L / 100km (X3)
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Wallabies
Updated team: 15-Israel Folau, 14-Dane Haylett-Petty, 13-Reece Hodge, 12-Matt Toomua, 11-Marika Koroibete, 10-Kurtley Beale, 9-Will Genia, 8-Pete Samu, 7-Michael Hooper (captain), 6-Lukhan Tui, 5-Adam Coleman, 4-Rory Arnold, 3-Allan Alaalatoa, 2-Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1-Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16-Folau Faingaa, 17-Tom Robertson, 18-Taniela Tupou, 19-Izack Rodda, 20-Ned Hanigan, 21-Joe Powell, 22-Bernard Foley, 23-Jack Maddocks.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
VERSTAPPEN'S FIRSTS
Youngest F1 driver (17 years 3 days Japan 2014)
Youngest driver to start an F1 race (17 years 166 days – Australia 2015)
Youngest F1 driver to score points (17 years 180 days - Malaysia 2015)
Youngest driver to lead an F1 race (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest driver to set an F1 fastest lap (19 years 44 days – Brazil 2016)
Youngest on F1 podium finish (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest F1 winner (18 years 228 days – Spain 2016)
Youngest multiple F1 race winner (Mexico 2017/18)
Youngest F1 driver to win the same race (Mexico 2017/18)
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
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First-round leaderbaord
-5 C Conners (Can)
-3 B Koepka (US), K Bradley (US), V Hovland (Nor), A Wise (US), S Horsfield (Eng), C Davis (Aus);
-2 C Morikawa (US), M Laird (Sco), C Tringale (US)
Selected others: -1 P Casey (Eng), R Fowler (US), T Hatton (Eng)
Level B DeChambeau (US), J Rose (Eng)
1 L Westwood (Eng), J Spieth (US)
3 R McIlroy (NI)
4 D Johnson (US)
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
MORE ON THE US DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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INDIA%20SQUAD
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The%20specs
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Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
ARM%20IPO%20DETAILS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EShare%20price%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETarget%20raise%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%248%20billion%20to%20%2410%20billion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProjected%20valuation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2460%20billion%20to%20%2470%20billion%20(Source%3A%20Bloomberg)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELead%20underwriters%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Barclays%2C%20Goldman%20Sachs%20Group%2C%20JPMorgan%20Chase%20and%20Mizuho%20Financial%20Group%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
It's Monty Python's Crashing Rocket Circus
To the theme tune of the famous zany British comedy TV show, SpaceX has shown exactly what can go wrong when you try to land a rocket.
The two minute video posted on YouTube is a compilation of crashes and explosion as the company, created by billionaire Elon Musk, refined the technique of reusable space flight.
SpaceX is able to land its rockets on land once they have completed the first stage of their mission, and is able to resuse them multiple times - a first for space flight.
But as the video, How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster, demonstrates, it was a case if you fail, try and try again.
