Emerging-market central banks are set to go on the defensive.
A surging dollar and the highest 10-year U.S. Treasury yields since 2011 are fueling bets that policy makers in key developing nations from India to Mexico will raise interest rates faster than economists previously anticipated.
The turnaround is led by concern that a failure to tighten monetary policy risks the possibility investors will zero in on swollen current-account deficits, spurring currency selloffs and sending inflation soaring. The fallout is most evident in crisis-hit Argentina, which jacked up its benchmark borrowing rate to 40 percent, but is also pronounced in Asia, where analysts are now predicting rate hikes in Indonesia, India and the Philippines.
“When the Fed’s on the move, central banks in emerging markets try to play catch-up,” said Frederic Neumann, the co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong.
HSBC now says the Reserve Bank of India will hike rates twice this year after previously expecting no change, and forecasts the Bank of Indonesia will tighten, scrapping an earlier prediction it would stay on hold. For the Philippines, HSBC maintains a bias toward raising even after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifted rates this month for the first time since 2014.
Some countries that were cutting rates are poised to hold off on further reductions. That is exactly what happened in Brazil, where the central bank surprisingly kept its key rate unchanged on Wednesday after twelve consecutive cuts, reneging on its own guidance. Policy makers had signaled an additional rate reduction in the previous meeting, but the emerging market rout forced a shift in the policy direction.
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US dollar takes centre stage in the financial universe
US Fed keeps interest rates unchanged as inflation remains close to target
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In the past two weeks, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted their rate forecasts for Indonesia and the Philippines by a quarter percentage point. Standard Chartered Plc expects India to raise the repo rate in two moves of 25 basis points each at the June and August meetings. Nomura Holdings Inc. now sees 50 basis points of hikes in India and Indonesia and says others may join the list of countries raising rates, including Turkey, Chile and Romania.
Turkey’s central bank said Wednesday that it was monitoring markets and would take the necessary steps to restore confidence after the lira tumbled to a record low.
Harvard professor and economist Carmen Reinhart says developing nations are worse off than during their two most recent moments of weakness, the 2008 global financial crisis and 2013 taper tantrum. She points to mounting debt loads, weakening terms of trade, rising global interest rates and stalling growth as reasons for concern.
“Because of rising balance-of-payments risks, the pressure is building for several central banks to hike rates sooner than we thought, even though, in some cases, inflation is benign,” Nomura analysts Andrew Cates and Rob Subbaraman wrote in a recent report.
Nations with current account surpluses are in a better position to withstand the impact of Fed interest-rate hikes than those with deficits. Inflation also remains subdued around most of the world, taking pressure off authorities.
Thailand’s central bank on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate near a record low, and said it doesn’t feel pressure to join the global wave of tightening. China is also in a comfortable position, helped by controls on the flow of money into and out the country.
Elsewhere, though, the pressure remains for tighter policy. The Mexican central bank may hike rates as soon as Thursday, motivated by peso weakness and concerns about inflation, according to Mike Moran, the chief economist for the Americas at Standard Chartered Bank. Most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the bank to leave the rate at 7.5 percent.
In what is probably the most emblematic case of policy makers responding to the dollar rally and higher Treasury yields, Argentina’s central bank used an interest rate shock to try to calm markets after its currency slumped to a record low. Officials raised borrowing costs by 12.75 percentage points in just over a week to 40 percent, the highest in the world.
The pressures are broad based. Sri Lanka’s central bank said Thursday it is open to using its foreign reserves to support the nation’s currency.
Fitch Ratings says it’s inevitable that emerging markets will have to embark on tighter monetary policies over the next years, although the moves haven’t been fully priced in by investors. A study published by the firm this week showed six out of 10 major developing nations are carrying policies considered too loose, most notably Turkey and Brazil.
“Policy rates could see more upwards adjustment than currently expected by financial markets as global monetary conditions normalize,” economists Brian Coulton and Maxime Darmet wrote in a report.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The bio:
Favourite holiday destination: I really enjoyed Sri Lanka and Vietnam but my dream destination is the Maldives.
Favourite food: My mum’s Chinese cooking.
Favourite film: Robocop, followed by The Terminator.
Hobbies: Off-roading, scuba diving, playing squash and going to the gym.
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
Most sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, five teaspoons of sugar in a 500ml bottle.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus