Now that the IPO is closed, the speculation has already started on how the Emaar Malls Group (EMG) shares will open next Thursday. Barring an unforeseen catastrophe in global financial markets, EMG ought to enjoy a strong pop on day one. Retail investors have not had an IPO like this for many years and the institutional allocation was sold out on the first day. The real question for investors is what happens after that. Is EMG going to be more than a one-day wonder?
Will there be a rush to exit the stock? It’s true that IPO buyers are often a fickle lot looking for a quick profit and nothing more. They may also be even more nervous than usual given the less than entirely propitious outlook for global stocks this autumn. Better out with a quick profit than risk making none at all.
It was ever thus. I’ve been writing about Dubai stocks for so long I can remember the original Emaar Properties IPO back in 1997. Investors doubled their money from Dh1 to Dh2 in a week on that IPO. But those who held on saw the share price rocket to Dh16 before the bust of 1999.
EMG is different at several levels. First, it’s a spinoff from the leading listed company Emaar Properties that is retaining a not inconsiderable 84.6 per cent stake after the IPO. Secondly, the valuation of the original Emaar Properties IPO in 1997 – and admittedly this was a start-up and not a well-established concern like EMG – was a lot more favourable to investors.
EMG is looking overpriced at approaching 30 times earnings at what may be the peak of its business cycle. It could face a Facebook-style flop shortly after trading starts with a rush to the exit door. But those who bought Facebook when the shares fell back have since done extremely well. EMG is the UAE’s largest IPO since October 2007 and has raised around US$1.6 billion for Emaar shareholders, of whom the Dubai Government is by far the largest.
Dubai has a reputation for not giving assets away and indeed selling at the right time, at least as far as the seller is concerned. Remember the previous larger local IPO, the $5bn Dubai Ports World issue in October 2007? Then Dubai managed to cash out just at the right time before the global financial crisis. DP shareholders from that IPO have been nursing large losses ever since.
You have to wonder if it might be the same story for EMG. There is the possibility of another financial storm this autumn. Then again EMG has cleverly timed its IPO to coincide with the $22bn Alibaba IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and that should help to smooth its debut. But such large IPOs often are held at the very top of markets. It’s the time when they are easiest to sell and get the highest price and therefore not a good time to buy.
What if history is repeated again and global stock markets take a nasty tumble? Then EMG shares would quickly fall to a much lower earnings multiple and selling price. That of course would be the ideal moment to buy them.
Take a lesson from the local investment group Abraaj, which bought DP World shares with great skill as the Dubai bourse crashed in 2009-10 at a fraction of the IPO issue price. DP World, with assets like the Jebel Ali Free Zone, was only ever going to be temporarily depressed in value, with the benefit of hindsight. Might the same not be true for EMG in a big sell-off? Assets like its Dubai Mall are not going to disappear and any temporary fall in the value of this real estate is a buying opportunity. And now that EMG is a public company anybody would be able to play this trade in a stock market correction.
Still, shareholders of Emaar Properties are going to get most of the $1.6bn raised in the IPO back as an extraordinary dividend, and look to be the biggest winners from this IPO after the excitement of day one. Longer term there may be a good opportunity to pick up the stock more cheaply in the secondary market after a correction. On the other hand, global stocks could get yet another boost from the money printers of the central banks and that has indeed kept shares rising in the UAE for the past three years as well as in the rest of the world.
Peter Cooper is the editor of arabianmoney.net
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
From Europe to the Middle East, economic success brings wealth - and lifestyle diseases
A rise in obesity figures and the need for more public spending is a familiar trend in the developing world as western lifestyles are adopted.
One in five deaths around the world is now caused by bad diet, with obesity the fastest growing global risk. A high body mass index is also the top cause of metabolic diseases relating to death and disability in Kuwait, Qatar and Oman – and second on the list in Bahrain.
In Britain, heart disease, lung cancer and Alzheimer’s remain among the leading causes of death, and people there are spending more time suffering from health problems.
The UK is expected to spend $421.4 billion on healthcare by 2040, up from $239.3 billion in 2014.
And development assistance for health is talking about the financial aid given to governments to support social, environmental development of developing countries.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
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- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
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Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5