Egypt's 'no' to cuts risks IMF loan



Egypt's parliament has overwhelmingly rejected proposed spending cuts, throwing into uncertainty the country's plans to obtain a US$3.2 billion (Dh11.8bn) IMF loan.

The IMF requires consensus within Egypt's leadership on an economic plan before the lender agrees to release the funds to help the country avoid a looming fiscal crunch.

"It will not be easy for the government to cut spending now, as most of the spending is on public wages and subsidies, which are key to maintaining social stability," said Walid Sayegh, an economist at Blominvest Bank.

The Islamist-dominated parliament has been debating the plan, put forward by the military-appointed cabinet, for almost two months, with discussions spanning 10 sessions.

But on Tuesday, only six of 365 lawmakers approved the plan. Some complained that the plan did not improve public security, cut poverty or provide revenue to raise wages, Reuters reported.

The disagreement is the latest twist in a lengthy and often bitter dispute among politicians about both the loan and the required reforms linked to the cash. Optimism about a deal rose the day before, when Momtaz l Saieed, Egypt's finance minister, was quoted as saying parties had approved the loan, opening the way for the first tranche to flow next month.

But parliament's rejection of spending cuts suggests more obstacles lie ahead.

It reflects the challenge facing the interim government as it tries to gather support for controversial proposals to scale back subsidies and raise taxes before the first round in the presidential election next month.

Subsidies on fuel and bread have become vital to Egyptians. Additional benefits are also woven into the wages of some public-sector workers. But the subsidies are a huge strain on the government's budget, accounting for as much as 10 per cent of GDP.

Egypt needs the IMF cash to help in plugging a deficit expected to widen to 150bn Egyptian pounds (Dh91.01bn) by the end June. But the loan would only partially cover the projected $11bn of financing that Egypt will need over the next two years.

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At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

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Size: 450 employees

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
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Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
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Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia