This week Herbert Smith, an international law firm, hosted a roundtable discussion on power and infrastructure opportunities in Egypt at the Intercontinental Hotel in Abu Dhabi.
The aim was to bring together project sponsors, government officials, and financiers to determine what opportunities might be available in the country.
Chairing the event was Karim Helal, who is a board member of CI Capital, an Egyptian investment bank, and the chairman of the Asean Egyptian Business Association. He describes himself as a "banker turned scuba-diver turned banker" because of his twin passions for finance and diving.
At 62, he has worked in the Gulf, the Far East, London and Cairo, where he is now based. He spoke to The Nationalafter the roundtable meeting on the need for and risks of long-term investing in Egypt.
Give us the background to Egyptian infrastructure investment?
Egypt has suffered under totalitarian regimes for 60 years, people say it's 30 years but in fact it started under Nasser. They always say the road to hell is paved with good intentions. With good intentions he made education free for everybody. But the problem is that it is not free, Egyptians pay more than 10 billion Egyptian pounds [Dh6.16bn] every year educating their children, and not really getting a proper education at that. Then graduates were guaranteed a government job creating huge disguised unemployment and effectively planting the seeds of the administrative corruption that we see today. Education, along with health care, ate [into] crucial areas that Egypt needs to seriously overhaul and that represent additional investment opportunities in the broader infra structure space with power, roads, ports etcetera, just think of an 80 million-plus population growing by 2 per cent a year.
But hasn't there been quite a lot of foreign investment over the years?
Yes there has, it's true, but the problem is that it didn't trickle down fast enough or wide enough in the sense that while the macro-economic indicators were showing positive and continuous growth, the average person in the street was feeling and getting poorer.
What is the mood in Egypt like now?
Everyone saw what happened, and how quickly Mubarak was got rid of. It took just 18 days. But it was always going to take longer, I mean years, to readjust the DNA of a nation and to rebuild the economy to achieve sustainable growth with a strong tint of social justice.
The revolution was spontaneously ignited by the youth having brought down the 60-year-old wall of fear-imposed silence, demanding freedom, democracy, dignity, end to corruption etcetera. But in my view the real underlying catalyst that galvanised the masses in the millions that we all saw, which turned the youth uprising into the tumultuous event that it became, were everyday economic hardships, namely inflation, poverty, unemployment and an almost complete lack of prospects. The young were deprived of their ability to dream of a better future.
The path forward, whatever its political orientation, can only have one option: tackle these core problems by creating productive jobs to achieve sustainable GDP growth. We have nearly 700,000 graduates coming into the job market every year. A major improvement and expansion in our infrastructure is a must.
What size of investment does Egypt need and in which areas?
People at the roundtable were saying that it needs up to US$40 billion [Dh146.9bn] over the next 10 years. There is also the need for more roads, water connections, water treatment plants, bridges and other things.
Is this money going to come from the private sector or from governments and multilateral agencies?
There is a lot of interest from the private sector, although they have concerns. They want to be sure existing contracts are honoured, they are worried about currency risk and government guarantees.
Multilateral agencies - and we had representatives from the African Development Bank - said they would like to be seen as complementary, not as substitutes to the private sector.
What are their other concerns?
Obviously they are worried about political risk. But I tell them not to worry about this. It's true that elections have been delayed, but whoever is in government, they will have to focus on one thing: the economy.
So what are the opportunities?
Egypt is a big country, with 80 million people. We need economic growth. It can only get this through infrastructure spending, not just physical things but also health care and education. But that spending will help boost GDP. There is a lot of potential. Because of the size of the population we can tap into its pockets. There isn't much of a bond market now, but we could create one that would be very helpful. Bear in mind this is going to be a long-term project. As I said, if you want a short-term deal, plant a flower. If you want a long-term lasting investment, plant a tree.
What are the role models? Where do you think this has been done successfully?
I always say Turkey and Malaysia. If you look at what Turkey has done over the past 20 years it is phenomenal. Twenty years ago Egypt was probably ahead of Turkey, but that has changed. We are a similar size with a similar population and the same kind of habitat. Erdogan came to Egypt a few weeks ago and was greeted like a hero. We can see the possibilities.
And interest from the Gulf?
Yes, of course, although, like other investors, they are also concerned about the currency risk. But one thing they have more than people from other parts of the world: they feel at home. One investor from the Gulf today told me that he feels that Egypt is his home market.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh132,000 (Countryman)
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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Teaching your child to save
Pre-school (three - five years)
You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.
Early childhood (six - eight years)
Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.
Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)
Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.
Young teens (12 - 14 years)
Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.
Teenage (15 - 18 years)
Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.
Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)
Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.
* JP Morgan Private Bank
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
The specs: 2019 GMC Yukon Denali
Price, base: Dh306,500
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Power: 420hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 621Nm @ 4,100rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
Mountain%20Boy
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Tuesday's fixtures
Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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