Since the end of the Second World War, a broad consensus in support of global economic integration as a force for peace and prosperity has been a pillar of the international order.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall a generation ago, the power of markets in promoting economic progress has been universally recognised. From global trade agreements to the European Union project; from the Bretton Woods institutions to the removal of pervasive capital controls; from expanded foreign direct investment to increased flows of peoples across borders, the direction has been clear. Driven by domestic economic progress, by integrative technologies such as container shipping and the internet, and by legislative changes within and between nations, the world has grown smaller and more closely connected.
This has proved more successful than could reasonably have been hoped. We have not seen a war between leading powers. Global living standards have risen faster than at any point in history. And material progress has coincided with even more rapid progress in combating hunger, empowering women, promoting literacy and extending life. Every single day since 1990 there were an average of 108,000 fewer people in extreme poverty. Since the beginning of the 21st century, global life expectancy has increased by more than four months a year. A world that will have more smartphones than adults within a few years is a world in which more is possible for more people than ever before.
Yet a backlash against the current paradigm of global integration is reshaping politics and economic policy in a way that may plague us for years. The momentum toward global economic integration was stopped when the US repudiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership. As I write this, worries of a trade war between the US, China and other countries have materialised, leaving a wide range of industries and countries anticipating substantial losses. History with respect to the result of such trade wars - most notably the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act - is not encouraging. The International Monetary Fund estimates that rising trade tensions between the US and the rest of the world could cost the global economy 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product, or $430 billion, by 2020.
The shift away from openness extends to immigration and capital flows as well. The EU, notable for its commitment to the free movement of people, is shifting toward much tougher immigration policies. New immigration policies in the US have turned police officers into immigration-enforcement agents and hurt business growth. Restrictions on foreign investment have been increasingly common as the US has taken to blocking Chinese investments, China has set unfair terms for US companies wishing to invest there, and Europe has increasingly favoured domestic companies over foreign competitors.
The backlash against global integration has many sources. Some of it reflects broader economic frustrations associated with slower growth and rising inequality. Some reflects the difficulties of maintaining harmony within multi-ethnic societies. Surely the speed and scale of China’s ascent has contributed.
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But what is most important is the growing suspicion on the part of electorates that globalisation is an elite project that primarily benefits elites. Somehow branches for financial institutions in foreign countries seem to be a higher priority than protections for displaced workers. And protection of the intellectual property of global corporations is a more focal concern than preventing unfair competition from foreign companies that escape regulation.
This must change if global integration is to maintain its political foundation in the world’s rich countries. Political leaders must connect global integration with tangible benefits for middle-class citizens, must show that international cooperation helps to prevent exploitation of ordinary citizens by elites, and must assure that adequate social protections are in place so that those who must adjust to economic change are protected.
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, written after the First World War, John Maynard Keynes asserted the primacy of economics, observing that "the perils of the future lie not in frontiers and sovereignties but in food, coal and transport". His call for strong policies directed at promoting mutual prosperity and cooperation went unheeded, with catastrophic consequences. The understanding of this grim experience after the Second World War set the stage for the best 70 years mankind has enjoyed. Will the US and the global community turn away from the paradigm of global integration that has worked so well and back to the narrow nationalism that Keynes so powerfully and rightfully decried?
Or will they find ways of promoting global integration that benefit all citizens everywhere? These might include major cooperative efforts to prevent global corporations from avoiding taxes, crackdowns on regulatory arbitrage, and stronger domestic programs to cushion the impact of structural changes on individual workers.
These are the questions that may determine the history of the 21st century.
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
The White Lotus: Season three
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Article 15
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Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
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